[starsky]

My personal opinion is that it will probably not drag the rest of the world down with it, not directly anyway.

I have to agree with Peter Schiff on this one, the US economy has been nothing but dead weight for the world economy the last few decades. The rest of the world has been producing products for American consumption, and at the same time lent money to the Americans to buy said products.

If the US economy and the dollar collapse, this will change many things. Among those things, the billions that the US borrows from the rest of the world will diminish significantly. Also demand destruction for oil and gas will set in, in the US and other countries.

But, because of Jevon's paradox, I am inclined to believe that because of the demand destruction there is more oil in supply than there is demand, causing prices to drop. And thus the void in consumption will be offset, causing economic booms in Europe, Asia and other parts of the world. While America will probably look more like Belarus or Romania looks today.

How long those economic booms will last is another question altogether.

[pogoliamo]

Not if, but how.

there are two possibilities -

1 - Soft crash similar to that of the Soviet Union

2 - Civil war and a new dark age for the whole world

hope you are ( and we are ) lucky enough to get the first one, however the second is the general case.

[vtsnowedin]

The idea that the US could suffer a major collapse and somwhere else in the world will benifit is just so far off the mark that I don't know where to begin. When it comes to markets globalisim is an accomplished fact. If our ship takes on water the whole world sinks.

[manu]

It already has started a world collapse. It's all going down for a long long time. Get used to living simple because everyone will be living that way for awhile.

[starsky]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', ':')razz: The idea that the US could suffer a major collapse and somwhere else in the world will benifit is just so far off the mark that I don't know where to begin. When it comes to markets globalisim is an accomplished fact. If our ship takes on water the whole world sinks.

[mmasters]

The US financial system is at the heart of the current global financial system having the most liquid markets. Many global commodities and benchmarks are still valued in dollars today. If it goes down by way of a run on the dollar it will take the world financial system with it to a large degree.

[vtsnowedin]

Thats not a matter of ego it's a matter of the size of the US GDP vs any other country you can mention. The other large economys are all intertwined with ours and need us as ethier a supply of raw materials, finished products or a market for their production. The USSRs GDP was so low that its collapse was not a major problem for the rest of the world. Of course there was also the fact that trade with the western world was minimumal with the soviet block so no one was in the habit of getting resourses or sales from that quarter. Cut off Russian sales of oil and gas to Europe today and that would be quite a different problem.
You need only look at how many stock markets worldwide have followed the USAs market down this last week to see how interdependant we have become.
You would think that with 6 plus billion people on the planet someone would have a good solution to this panic. There probably is, but he or she is stuck in a rice paddy or some other out of the way place , pulling weeds and no one is listening.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pogoliamo', '
')2 - Civil war

[Sys1]

Ludi : White against Black. After that it will be against Jude or Chinese or Gays or anyone different from another.

Anyway, USA won't allow the world to go on while they collapse, that's why I see world war 3 and Olduvai. Our story will end as it began, in caverns.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'L')udi : White against Black. After that it will be against Jude or Chinese or Gays or anyone different from another.

Anyway, USA won't allow the world to go on while they collapse, that's why I see world war 3 and Olduvai. Our story will end as it began, in caverns.

[richardroma]

There wont be a civil war between sides that have access to nukes. People with nuclear weapons don't go to war with eachother, so far.

The crashes around the world is not a matter of one country dragging others down. That's how the media descibes it but that is not how it works. It is a matter of malinvestments and ficticious values of financial assets being discovered in different countries. The discovery of these things, the crashes, are good because it leads to the end of malinvestments. No country is bringing another country down. They are simply starting their readjustment processes thanks to the discovery of malinvestments in the other country. How deep it goes has not as much to do with how intertwined economies are as it has to do with how much malinvestments each country has.

[Snowrunner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('richardroma', 'T')here wont be a civil war between sides that have access to nukes. People with nuclear weapons don't go to war with eachother, so far.

[pogoliamo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pogoliamo', '
')2 - Civil war

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('starsky', 'W')hat will happen if the US economy collapses?

[hironegro]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pogoliamo', '
')2 - Civil war

[Jotapay]

I'll eat from my 6-months of food reserves and start to shoot my fellow townsfolk as they try and illegally appropriate my property and inflict deadly force upon the inhabitants here. Any more questions?

[Jotapay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hironegro', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pogoliamo', '
')2 - Civil war

[Gebari]

Economic booms in Europe? About as unlikely as me being Lord Lucan. Parts of Europe are being harder hit by this mess even than the US - look at Iceland and Ireland. My country is also being seriously affected. We live in a global ecomomy now and if the US goes down it will bring the rest of the world with it. Nobody will escape.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')merica is too big to fail

[shady28]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('starsky', 'M')y personal opinion is that it will probably not drag the rest of the world down with it, not directly anyway.

[Snowrunner]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gebari', 'E')conomic booms in Europe? About as unlikely as me being Lord Lucan. Parts of Europe are being harder hit by this mess even than the US - look at Iceland and Ireland. My country is also being seriously affected. We live in a global ecomomy now and if the US goes down it will bring the rest of the world with it. Nobody will escape.