[raisinbran]

As a past believer in peak oil, I say:

Peak oil is a myth, and a sham. Period.

[Madpaddy]

If there was one more i in your nickname it would describe you perfectly.

[Ludi]

Wow neat, so oil is an infinite resource that we will always produce more of! Cool!

[Madpaddy]

Well, raisinBRAIN said it so it must be true.

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Madpaddy', 'W')ell, raisinBRAIN said it so it must be true.

[Devin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'W')ow neat, so oil is an infinite resource that we will always produce more of! Cool!

[Ferretlover]

Caution: Agree with *giggle* or attack *snicker* ideas, NOT *snort* fellow posters! ROTFLMAO

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'C')aution: Agree with *giggle* or attack *snicker* ideas, NOT *snort* fellow posters! ROTFLMAO

[Cloud9]

I suspect peak oil was the cause of the current calamity. It may very well be that $4.00 a gallon gasoline was the tipping point that began the retreat that caused the cascade that resulted in collapse. How is peak oil not the culprit? It broke the back of the American consumer.

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', 'I') suspect peak oil was the cause of the current calamity. It may very well be that $4.00 a gallon gasoline was the tipping point that began the retreat that caused the cascade that resulted in collapse. How is peak oil not the culprit? It broke the back of the American consumer.

[jasonraymondson]

uhm... can we say troll. Just ignore him.

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', '[')b]I suspect peak oil was the cause of the current calamity. It may very well be that $4.00 a gallon gasoline was the tipping point that began the retreat that caused the cascade that resulted in collapse. How is peak oil not the culprit? It broke the back of the American consumer.

[Plantagenet]

One of the most fundamental parts of the "peak oil" model is that supply shortfalls would produce high gas prices that would produce economic crisis and eventual collapse.

Considering that the peak in petroleum liquids production was in 2005, and gas prices rocketed upwards after that, we are right on schedule with the economic crisis.

[Narz]

You're not the raisinbran from CFC, are you?

[raisinbran]

The problem is not the science of peak-oil. It is fairly reasonable to believe that, as a finite resource, it would deplete and follow the "peak oil" projection that is touted on this site.

However, the fundamental question to ask is:

Is that really happening, right now, that would accurately describe what is happening today?

Point 1) Peak oil minimizes manipulation and enshrines the principles of supply and demand.

The fundamental problem with the notion of peak oil is quite simply that it assumes that this world economy, and the oil market, operates freely according to supply and demand, and that it has been for decades.

I think you all have witnessed first-hand how much manipulation there is in the oil prices. Knowing that oil indeed can be another speculative trade commodity, and that it fell about $70 in two months, clearly suggests there was a modest inflation of the price. Gas is quite low right now, back to levels 8 months ago. Is it really reasonable that this price crash ($8 down yesterday) is attributed to demand destruction alone?

Point 2) To understand world events (and this global meltdown certainly qualifies as a world event), most would agree that an understanding of a broad array of subjects is important.

For starters, one should have an understanding that the folly in the housing market, along with excessive speculative activity in the financial industry, is is a large contributor of the current financial meltdown. In all honesty, as much as some here would like to believe that a shortage of oil is directly causing multiple bank failures, mass foreclosures, and government bailouts, the simple truth is that it hardly does. High-gas prices alone are not the cause of this travesty.

World events are multifaceted, ranging from natural resources, financial structures, economic systems, politics, geopolitics, religious/ideological trends, social/cultural trends. For some examples, the trend toward socialism that we are witnessing is notable. This election, the Georgia Russia debacle, increased militarism, and the marked technological invasion of our privacy and rights deserve attention. Do you think oil shortages are making the world more socialist by default? Do you think Iraq/Afghanistan/Georgia is all about oil? Or is that only part of the story?

Peak oil seems to single out natural resources, and to a lesser extent economic structures, as the sole driver of world events today, because data shows that we haven't found new oil, that oil fields are depleting, and that governments are now going to scramble and look for more oil, and therefore everything will collapse, etc.

Point 3) Perhaps most of all it enshrines human greed, but minimizes the human desire for more control.

The desire for mankind, for leaders, to exert control is well-documented throughout history. The Portuguese and Spanish wanted to monopolize the Spice and Silver trade, respectively, as a source of wealth, as well as to maintain a military edge over their rivals.

Oil, whether you like it or not, is almost a perfect weapon, or tool of control. Any country without oil is a country that will implode in months. Any population without oil/gas will become a starved, angry population.

If you are wondering why your rights and privacy have been slowly and systematically torn down over the past decade, why the government is essentially nationalizing the banks and your home, and why your jobs are moving out of this country, then you probably feel like somebody is exerting more control over you.

Tools of control are all around us. We don't produce our food, our power, our water, our gasoline, where are cash is stored, someone else does, and usually it is a large corporation. We also get our interpretations of world events and news from someone else, because we are not well-versed enough to come up with our own conclusion.

Believing peak oil is like trying to see the world from an oil rig. Undoubtedly you would probably have a better view of the landscape from an airplane, to see all the dynamic movement.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('raisinbran', 'B')elieving peak oil is like trying to see the world from an oil rig. Undoubtedly you would probably have a better view of the landscape from an airplane, to see all the dynamic movement.

[Pops]

rasinbran's first Post:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('raisinbran', 'Y')ea, you're right zeke. Peak oil seems to be here already. Looking at it from that point of view, when you realize that PEOPLE are driving PO, credit crunch, food crisis, crisis this, crisis that, it just makes it's doomy gloomy outcome the more assured one. "Will it happen? Yes, because they want it to happen."

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Madpaddy', 'I')f there was one more i in your nickname it would describe you perfectly.

[jasonraymondson]

You have provided a fairly logical and well thought out argument, a lot of what you have said here today, I will agree with and support.

Peak Oil though is very real, but I do agree there are many other factors that we need to be worried about, and peak oil is hardly number one. Peak oil is only a result of a sickness that has vitiated our existence.

Human greed has deleteriously influenced and has led to certain people becoming so powerful as to have the ability to control and manipulate world events. Now I am not calling for a belief in some arch-villain, or guild bent on world domination. That is to easy, it makes us feel comfortable to believe in some big bad, one type of entity that we can displace our anger towards. It is like a belief in Jesus, Allah, Buddha..., a simple explanation without examination.

This is where belief in groups such as the Illuminati, Skulls and Bones, and other "Satanic Brotherhoods" have arisen. We need evil, we need something that we can't understand. We understand greed, we partake in this activity everyday. To accept greed as an answer though, forces us to re-examine ourselves and this is not something that we really want to do.

A lot of people on this site purport to believe in Occam's razor, but they continue to espouse ideas that are in direct opposition. Try the easier answer, and be willing to analyze yourself.

[raisinbran]

Jason, you have hit the wavelength, the train of thought that I was approaching, and that is encouraging.

I very much agree with your assertion that we tend to invent some higher evil, a simple one, to explain what we don't fully understand. Personally, I don't necessarily believe in a massive conspiracy, a thousand person cabal that runs everything, nor do I believe that a single group of people is controlling everything on the planet.

I do want to make this assertion. Peak oil, the notion, IS a simply invented evil to help us explain what is happening.

I don't think peak oil is real because it makes, in my view, an extreme assumption: that the earth controls man.

Don't get me wrong, oil is finite, and the world today has only so much to operate within.

But peak oil suggests that mankind is so greedy, so eager to exploit natural resources, that it blindly used it all up until it drove itself into oblivion. It ignores the possibility that someone, somewhere, had the foresight to recognize oil as having other uses, namely as a tool of power and control.

For example, say this economy collapses, and your normal life is disrupted such that you cannot find food. You have some food in reserve for you and your family. You aren't really sure how long your reserves will last you, but logically you want to preserve your household as long as you can. You think to yourself that if you did run out of food, your family might go crazy. Furthermore, if you were able to ration your food carefully, you might be able to preserve your energy, so that you can beat out others when it comes time to secure more food somewhere. Hence, you view your food as a strategic asset, for the simple reason of just to survive.

I lay out the same idea with oil. Say you are an oil company. Being more than just an asset to waste and waste until you find yourself screwed, you have foresight and you realize that it can be a strategic asset that might help you last longer or win out your competition.

I contend that the governments view oil in this manner. In the case of the United States, the fact that most of our oil comes from other countries is telling. While it is possible that we simply don't have enough, from the view I just offered, it would seem strategic to use OTHER people's oil, and hoard your own. I certainly think that is possible.

Although it is true that people sometimes blindly drive themselves into oblivion because of their own greed, I don't think, that, on the whole, humankind is operating like that on the grand scheme. If you take time to understand history from the perspective I've just given, you'll see that for nearly 100 years we've been heading down a path that can be best summed up as the quest for ultimate power, ultimate control. There is plenty of evidence, but for this post I will limit my arguments to ideological ones.

I don't think that the earth controls man, but that man exploits the earth, to gain the advantage over others.

I will say, too, what to look out for. If you really want to know what is going on, just watch the ACTIONS that governments, banks, and people take to deal with today's crisis. It will tell the story.