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GM, Ford, and Chrysler Death Watch Thread

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Re: GM, Ford, and Chrysler Death Watch Thread

Postby Denny » Wed 24 Sep 2008, 18:46:25

GM's down to their last coins in the drawer, relatively speaking, they are drawing down $3.5 billion of their $4.5 billion line of credit.

I think the next trip for GM execs will be to Washington, hat in hand.

Its too bad, they were such a force for so long, but they blew it.

See CNN Money
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Re: GM, Ford, and Chrysler Death Watch Thread

Postby Niagara » Wed 24 Sep 2008, 18:48:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', 'G')M's down to their last coins in the drawer, relatively speaking, they are drawing down $3.5 billion of their $4.5 billion line of credit.

I think the next trip for GM execs will be to Washington, hat in hand.

Its too bad, they were such a force for so long, but they blew it.

See CNN Money


Hmm. So I guess I won't bother covering my GM short. I'll wait till it's pink-sheeted. Cool.
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Re: GM, Ford, and Chrysler Death Watch Thread

Postby Revi » Wed 24 Sep 2008, 19:59:05

I just heard that congress has already passed a bill to give the big three a 25 billion dollar "loan". They say they need it to retool and build more fuel efficient cars. Here's an old story on the bailout:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/26626544

Ford just might make it, however. Their new CEO is working to make small cars again. A dealer told me that they are retooling the expedition plant to make mondeos.

http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/the-to ... n-of-ford/
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Re: GM, Ford, and Chrysler Death Watch Thread

Postby mos6507 » Fri 10 Oct 2008, 22:15:53

Time to bump up this thread. GM and Ford are both on the ropes now.

LINK
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Re: GM, Ford, and Chrysler Death Watch Thread

Postby Keith_McClary » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 01:55:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'T')ime to bump up this thread. GM and Ford are both on the ropes now.

LINK
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')M's 8.375 percent note due July 2033 fell 6 cents to 18.5 cents on the dollar today, yielding 45 percent, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.

Ford's 7.45 percent note due July 2031 declined 10 cents to 24 cents on the dollar, yielding 31.1 percent.

What are their market capitalizations compared to other automakers such as Daihatsu, Hyundai, Tata, Lada, Great Wall, Yugo, Lamborghini, Zenn ... ?
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Re: GM, Ford, and Chrysler Death Watch Thread

Postby TreebeardsUncle » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 02:03:11

Well, the DOW tested 7800 today after hitting 8500 or so on Thursday due to the credit downgrade GM is facing from the S&P. I would like to see all three go down, particularly GM, as they deserve it. Am guessing Toyota might merge with GM. The government can't carry all these dead-weight dishonest exploitative no-good rip-off artists indefinitely.
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Re: GM, Ford, and Chrysler Death Watch Thread

Postby Minvaren » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 08:33:54

BBC News : "GM and Chrysler 'in merger talks'"

If bankruptcy isn't an option, I suppose merger is...
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Re: GM, Ford, and Chrysler Death Watch Thread

Postby Niagara » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 08:46:32

I actually think the big 3 will survive somehow.

I covered my GM short yesterday and went long. Man, what a ride that was from the low 30's.

(DISCLAIMER: don't take investment advice from some guy on the internet)
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Re: GM, Ford, and Chrysler Death Watch Thread

Postby pedalling_faster » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 08:52:56

Are Ford & GM about to go Bankrupt ?

Their stocks are behaving like Wamu's did.

what was the last company that had $300 billion in liabilities and a stock market capitalization of $4 billion ? WaMu.

GM balance sheet, 190 billion in liabilities, market value of $3 billion.
http://quote.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=GM

Ford balance sheet, 260 billion in liabilities, market value of $5 billion
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=F

(those pages have links to the income statements.)

Europe WAS
one of GM's bright spots.

i watched WaMu fall from a market cap of about $8 billion 6 months ago to the recent $4-$5 billion, before it got assigned to - whoever. final sale price - $1.8 or 1.9 billion.

i think GM maybe Ford are about to go BK. what banks would be most impacted by GM or Ford defaulting on their debt ?

one look at GM's income statement - 4 consecutive quarters losing billions & then tens of billions of $. the stock market knows something. Ford has alternating quarters of billion dollar losses, and then some (limited) profits.
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Re: GM, Ford, and Chrysler Death Watch Thread

Postby Denny » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 09:59:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Minvaren', '[')url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7664866.stm]BBC News[/url] : "GM and Chrysler 'in merger talks'"

If bankruptcy isn't an option, I suppose merger is...


I think its kind of cute of GM and Chrysler to pair up, like two elderly folks who fall in love at shady acres retirement home. They may not live longer but they'll have a bit of new spice in their lives.
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Re: GM, Ford, and Chrysler Death Watch Thread

Postby mos6507 » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 15:25:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', '
')I think its kind of cute of GM and Chrysler to pair up, like two elderly folks who fall in love at shady acres retirement home. They may not live longer but they'll have a bit of new spice in their lives.


When AMC/Jeep merged with Chrysler, that was kind of a "whatever" moment, but the idea of any of the big 3 merging is scary. That would be like Apple and Microsoft merging, or cats and dogs living together (ala Ghostbusters).
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Re: GM, Ford, and Chrysler Death Watch Thread

Postby pup55 » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 20:14:27

Laurence J. Peter discussed this sort of thing in his famous work on organizational behavior. For whatever reason, people think that two incompetently run organizations, merged into one, will suddenly become competent. We have reason to be skeptical.

The only thing it will accomplish is further pressure on the upstream supply chain (most of which is at or near bankruptcy already). Oh, yeah, that, plus the layoff of even more of the overhead, especially the R and D people, whose job it is to develop products that people will like.
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Re: GM, Ford, and Chrysler Death Watch Thread

Postby dunewalker » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 23:51:22

The best thing GM could hope for is to be bought by Toyota. The worst thing Toyota could do is buy GM.
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Re: GM, Ford, and Chrysler Death Watch Thread

Postby Niagara » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 08:06:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dunewalker', 'T')he best thing GM could hope for is to be bought by Toyota. The worst thing Toyota could do is buy GM.

Ain't gonna happen. They're in two completely unrelated industries.

Toyota is a car maker. GM's in the healthcare business.
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Re: GM, Ford, and Chrysler Death Watch Thread

Postby Duende » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 10:18:18

Denny wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think its kind of cute of GM and Chrysler to pair up, like two elderly folks who fall in love at shady acres retirement home. They may not live longer but they'll have a bit of new spice in their lives.

:lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: GM, Ford, and Chrysler Death Watch Thread

Postby pup55 » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 10:46:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he best thing GM could hope for is to be bought by Toyota. The worst thing Toyota could do is buy GM.


Both correct statements.

Let's see....

There are 566 million shares of GM oustanding. At the current price of about $5 per share, this means you would only need about $1.4B to buy 50% of GM. Less than that, if you could manage to persuade the managers of the Dodge and Cox mutual fund to cooperate, since they own 10% of the company, and would be delighted to get some value for their original investment, which is no doubt bad at the moment.

I have to say we are not really talking about a lot of money, in light of the recent numbers that are being thrown around, including the Trillion dollar bailout, and the 60-trillion dollar pyramid of CDS's that is still out there waiting to implode.

So, somebody like Hyundai, with a lot of pocket money, and the need to expand their US dealer network, might be perfectly willing to do this. They could get control of the company, fire the management, keep the Saturn division, Cadillacs, Camaros and corvettes because 55 year olds still like them, keep the European division (Opal) which is perfectly capable of producing small, efficient cars that people like, and shut the rest of the place down, sowing salt into the earth like the Romans did to Carthage. Perhaps a televised implosion of GM HQ in Detroit, on National TV to generate publicity. I have driven a couple of Aveos lately, and like them a lot, so maybe keep those too.

As of 12-31-07 They had 45 Billion in long term debt. However, At that point, they had $24b in cash, and another $29B in receivables and inventory so that would break them just about even, assuming a lot of 07 chevys sitting on a lot someplace is worth anything close to what it is on the books for.

So this is doable by anyone who has the nerve to take the place over at the moment.
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Re: GM, Ford, and Chrysler Death Watch Thread

Postby Niagara » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 10:55:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'L')et's see....

There are 566 million shares of GM oustanding. At the current price of about $5 per share, this means you would only need about $1.4B to buy 50% of GM......


The only problem is, Pup, you couldn't possibly buy any significant number of shares at the current price. Stock prices tend to soar even on the rumor of a buyout offer.

Kirk Krekorian at one time scooped up 10% of GM and had a big affect on the market price.
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Re: GM, Ford, and Chrysler Death Watch Thread

Postby pup55 » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 16:46:34

I suppose you're right. On the other hand, perhaps there are enough people around that are afraid it will go to "zero" that they can come up with 250 million shares. Even at 15, you are only talking about $5B, which is about how much they will lose in the next two months.

At this point is GM worth more split into parts than it is as a entity? It appears so.
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Re: GM, Ford, and Chrysler Death Watch Thread

Postby Denny » Wed 15 Oct 2008, 12:52:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hogan', '[')b]GM Survival Questioned as SUV's End Chills Ohio Town

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Gloom is spreading across Moraine, Ohio, as General Motors Corp. prepares to shut a sport-utility vehicle plant two days before Christmas, abandoning a factory in the Dayton suburb of 7,000 that stretches back to making refrigerators in 1921.

``The whole town is going to be devastated,'' said Cathy Miller, 51, who pours drinks at the Upper Deck sports bar across the street from the plant, where employment has fallen from 4,200 to 1,200 in two years.

Sales of Moraine's truck-based Chevy TrailBlazer, GMC and Saab SUVs have skidded in a U.S. economy whipsawed by a credit crunch and $4-a-gallon gasoline. While the Detroit-based automaker said in June it would close the factory in two years, the company said on Oct. 3 the last day would be Dec. 23.


link

They could have at least waited until after Christmas to shut it down. Sheesh. :(


Well, maybe its the very end of "Generous Motors". If you stop work before Christmas, then the employer likely avopids having to pay the automaker norm of seven days paid time off from Dec. 24 through likely Jan. 2 of 2009. There may also be collective agreement provisions that vest one with vacation time benefits in 2009, even if you only have one paid day in 2009.

Just taking the seven days, if we assume an average wage of $25 per hour, it works out to $1.7 million for the 1200 workers involved for time not worked. How many vehicles would GM have to sell at current market conditions just to pay that benefit?
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