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Are we fools? Time to eat some crow?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Are we fools? Time to eat some crow?

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 06:16:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Economix', 'T')he reason prices went up, in my opinion, was a perception that demand would continue to soar unabated in the face of peak extraction rates.
Well, that's your opinion. For about 18-20 months, production lagged consumption for almost every one of those months. Recently, consumption had lagged production and so prices dropped. I think prices have dropped more than is warranted by fundamentals, however. Production may have lagged consumption again, for the last two months (according to EIA estimates in their STEO), so expect prices to start climbing again, even in the midst of recession, unless demand is destroyed further.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Economix', 'S')ubstitutes for oil include not only other forms of energy, but other lifestyle and consumption choices. If I reduce my driving by 25% and consolidate my shopping trips, that behavioral choice is in effect a substitute for oil -- in terms of its impact on demand and price.
And it has a knock on effect on the economy, which thrives on wasteful behaviour.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Economix', 'P')rices reflect not only reality but our perceptions of reality. I'd say it's pretty clear that most forum contributors on PeakOil have had a crisis mindset that didn't always march in step with changing realities.
Not at all. Do you think resources are infinite on this planet? The longer we act as if they are, the closer we get to a collapse, or at least a crisis.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Economix', 'I')f we expect politicians to admit when they're wrong, we should do the same. It's the responsible thing to do.
Absolutely. When we're wrong, we'll admit it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Economix', 'I')'ll admit I've been wrong about the imminent danger of Peak Oil. Anyone else care to do so?
The rise in living costs, supported by high oil prices, supported by market fundamentals, may have been a contributing factor to the financial mess we're in now. No-one will even consider that, of course. Peak oil, and unsustainable behaviour generally, remains an ever present problem. Why would you deny that?
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Re: Are we fools? Time to eat some crow?

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 06:28:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'e')arlier, back in June I said:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'A')nd here is why you are dead wrong.

Let's say you're actually right, and the price of oil goes up to $150, then $200, then $300, then . . . If the price of oil goes that high, you will see a worldwide economic collapse and demand destruction far beyond anyone's wildest imagination. And once that happens, the price of oil will collapse. The error of peaker logic is that they assume the price of something can go up forever. Sorry, but the price of something cannot go up forever. At some point, the price will go so high it will, one way or another, destroy its own market. So yes, the author is correct - it's not a matter of if, it's just a matter of when.
You got the peak oilers wrong, OF. Demand destruction has been an ever present issue in peak oilers thoughts. Economic collapse has been an ever present issue in peak oilers thoughts. The big question was what price would oil have to reach, to cause significant behavioural change. Well, it seems it caused behavioural change through inflation and erosion of spending power.

What your little paragraph fails to note is that the destruction of the oil market is the destruction of economies, as we know them. That doesn't seem to bother you; you'd rather try to claim "I told you so".

So oil is at under $80. It's amazing that it now seems cheap but I wonder how much unconventional oil development plans, production and exploration will be binned by such "low" prices.

However, consumption is now back above production, so it'll be interesting to see how long oil can remain so cheap.
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Re: Are we fools? Time to eat some crow?

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 06:42:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'W')hen I issued a Commodity Correction Warning a little before the crash, I was mocked and pelted with tomatoes for my idiocy. Read the thread, and see for yourself. Obviously I got the last laugh.
Very amusing. So you found a quote from an economist that actually turned out accurate (at least for now)? Big deal. How many got it wrong, how often, until then? And how wrong have they been since?

Matt Simmons has been sounding the alarm, and should be congratulated for that. That very few people are listening is not his fault.

Show me someone who has speculated accurately at all times, and I'll start believing in astrology. Simmons looks to be right about SA, his book never gave precise timescales but, since its publication, SA production declined for two years running. That they managed to reverse that decline for part of the last year doesn't make Simmons's analysis wrong. At least not yet.
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Re: Are we fools? Time to eat some crow?

Unread postby VMarcHart » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 07:01:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'I')t seemed to me you were laughing at the 3 questions, not the article.
Actually, I was. They were phrased in such a biased way.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'B')ut you did quote the questions, didn't you?
Apparently you missed part of my response. I put it in bold so you wouldn't miss it this time. :)
I didn't miss it at all. I read it clearly. I think your back-pedaling is disengenious.
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
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Re: Are we fools? Time to eat some crow?

Unread postby Bas » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 07:36:37

extreme volatility of price has always been expected by the peakoil proponents, and in case anybody failed to notice, prices are still near what wouldve been record price levels just last year.

People, like JD saying eat crow now that oil prices have come down in this extreme financial crisis, and only for the last month or two are not in their right mind it seems. But then again it may be their last and only good "opportunity" to "prove" they're right while they're still able to delude themselves.

Also, I see that they only bother to "quote" some of the most wild PO-claims made in the past 12 months by the few in moments of bewilderment, not even bothering to look up exact posts/posters; another example of an inability to look at things straight.

Anyway I'll eat some crow when the oil price falls below 50 dollars and stays under that level for a year or two or longer. And even then you have to look if it's a result of demand destruction rather than supply growth because PO is primarily concerned with the latter and for all anyone can say is that we're on an undulating plateau with it.
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Re: Are we fools? Time to eat some crow?

Unread postby Ferretlover » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 09:33:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'A')pparently you missed part of my response. I put it in bold so you wouldn't miss it this time. :)
I didn't miss it at all. I read it clearly. I think your back-pedaling is disengenious.

Back-pedaling? Disingenuous? :lol: Where do I start?
This attitude/belief system that there is nothing wrong regarding peak oil (or, for that matter, peak every other resource) and that this can be proven just because the price of a barrel of oil has decreased for the moment is... well, to be kind, childish.
There is more to decision-making than expecting the answer always to be black-or-white, this-or-that, on-or-off, etc. The more people who are involved in the decision-making increases the number of variables that must be considered due to, among other things, education and personal agendas which influence how any problem is perceived.
The price of anything is a value set on a commodity by humans. It has no bearing on the amount of oil left to be consumed, only on the pace that the oil (or any other resource) is consumed.
In other words, there is a good chance that there will be a lot of people eating crow because that may be all that is left to eat, not because the concept of peak oil was wrong.
"Open the gates of hell!" ~Morgan Freeman's character in the movie, Olympus Has Fallen.
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Re: Are we fools? Time to eat some crow?

Unread postby VMarcHart » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 10:46:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'A')pparently you missed part of my response. I put it in bold so you wouldn't miss it this time. :)
I didn't miss it at all. I read it clearly. I think your back-pedaling is disengenious.

Back-pedaling? Disingenuous? :lol: Where do I start?
This attitude/belief system that there is nothing wrong regarding peak oil (or, for that matter, peak every other resource) and that this can be proven just because the price of a barrel of oil has decreased for the moment is... well, to be kind, childish.
There is more to decision-making than expecting the answer always to be black-or-white, this-or-that, on-or-off, etc. The more people who are involved in the decision-making increases the number of variables that must be considered due to, among other things, education and personal agendas which influence how any problem is perceived.
The price of anything is a value set on a commodity by humans. It has no bearing on the amount of oil left to be consumed, only on the pace that the oil (or any other resource) is consumed.
In other words, there is a good chance that there will be a lot of people eating crow because that may be all that is left to eat, not because the concept of peak oil was wrong.
You quoted the questions with a laugh, and added you are positively right, and then you said you were laughing at the article. I thought the article was non-sense. And if you did too, you could've quoted it instead of the questions, which I thought were worthy of pondering.

Go ahead, laugh your ass off all you want, but you sure sent mix signals. All you have to do is say, "gee, I guess you might have a point, I should've quoted the article", but what are the chances?

BTW, thanks for the spell-check.
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
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Re: Are we fools? Time to eat some crow?

Unread postby ki11ercane » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 12:34:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '
')So oil is at under $80. It's amazing that it now seems cheap but I wonder how much unconventional oil development plans, production and exploration will be binned by such "low" prices.

However, consumption is now back above production, so it'll be interesting to see how long oil can remain so cheap.


The general rule here in Canada is if oil is around $70.00 per barrel, the tar sands stop being profitable. Since those projects already exist and won't all stop all at once if oil drops down to around $70.00, they'll simply chug along at a loss consuming whatever profit they have made in the past 12 months until that profit is depleted. The profit on the oil itself is the "fuel" that drives these projects and their ability to continue. This profit also directly effects the ability for new projects (more physical oil) to come online. If it's profit output can't keep the lights on, the project is cancelled, creating more loss. Then you get a snowball effect on current and future projects.

It's all nice to say "right now we're producing more than we are consuming" until the economy can't continue to finance current energy extraction projects, then production drops. Then all of the sudden consumption is outpacing production because the economy can't afford to prop up production.
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Re: Are we fools? Time to eat some crow?

Unread postby Ferretlover » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 12:38:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'Y')ou quoted the questions with a laugh

OOohhh, now I get it. You are offended that I offered my opinion.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', ' ')and added you are positively right

Nowhere did I state that I was “positively right."
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', ' ')and then you said you were laughing at the article.

You asked if I was, and I replied. If you don’t want an answer, don’t ask a question.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', ' ')I thought the article was non-sense. And if you did too, you could've quoted it instead of the questions

Now you are assuming that you have the right to determine what I post? :lol: Don’t be silly.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', ' ')which I thought were worthy of pondering.
Ponder away.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', ' ')Go ahead, laugh your ass off all you want, but you sure sent mix signals.
A) Don’t be rude. B) Mixed signals? Gee, I don’t suppose you’ve considered that You assumed something (inaccurately) into what I said.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', ' ')All you have to do is say, "gee, I guess you might have a point, I should've quoted the article", but what are the chances?
I might have said a great many things (and resisted), but I choose to what I respond, and, how I do it. I have not given you the right to make those determinations for me.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', ' ')BTW, thanks for the spell-check.
You are quite welcome. :)
Now, let’s get back on-topic, shall we?
"Open the gates of hell!" ~Morgan Freeman's character in the movie, Olympus Has Fallen.
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Re: Are we fools? Time to eat some crow?

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 19:57:25

It just occurred to me that intentionally crashing the market is an excellent way to deal with peak oil. People feel good that the price is going down, even if they now have no money to buy any.

But that's probably just being alarmist.... :roll:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', '&')quot;Taste the sizzling fury of fajita skillet death you marauding zombie goon!"

First thing to ask: Cui bono?
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Re: Are we fools? Time to eat some crow?

Unread postby ki11ercane » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 00:21:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RedStateGreen', 'I')t just occurred to me that intentionally crashing the market is an excellent way to deal with peak oil. People feel good that the price is going down, even if they now have no money to buy any.

But that's probably just being alarmist.... :roll:


It's already been commented on that in order for change (not Peak Oil) in society to happen of a high magnitude, a severe event has to happen. I don't think Peak Oil will be that severe event. It truly is the "freight train into the brick wall in slow motion." I think economic collapse at the social level may be that event.

As long as our world functions on a monetary system, which in itself is a system of deception on so many levels, there will be war, poverty and disease.
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Re: Are we fools? Time to eat some crow?

Unread postby mididoctors » Mon 13 Oct 2008, 06:58:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Economix', '
')
I'll admit I've been wrong about the imminent danger of Peak Oil. Anyone else care to do so?


this is peak oil.....

why can we not go on borrowing?

what happened?

the rate at which we could consume to mop up the inflation of "borrowed" money went out of kilter because the growth in net energy delivered to the economy to make things means the average cost per average thing went up...

which impacted profits etc etc etc..

which defaults the liquidity flowing through the system

we couldn't afford "free money" or "cheap money" anymore because the "real" currency is energy..

and its about the comparative rates of growth of deleveraging vs growth in net energy not absolute values

where I do agree with you is that people hypothersied what was going to happen... which is always dangerous...so much so no one has worked out whats going on...
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Re: Are we fools? Time to eat some crow?

Unread postby mididoctors » Mon 13 Oct 2008, 07:01:26

I chalk this up as 1 for the doomers... (I'm not one)

the oil is still being used and the amount of OIP left is going down all the time

the price signal is not a liner match to consumption

what we are guilty of is simplistic "fantasys" of what peak oil means...


very dangerous turn in the road this financal crash...
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Re: Are we fools? Time to eat some crow?

Unread postby allenwrench » Mon 13 Oct 2008, 10:59:27

Re: OP


Could be Demand Destruction may temper PO for a while. We may have to re-think that we have peaked?

Then gain, crude could skyrocket again...very volatile.

And if DD keeps PO costs in check for some time I will take some trips in my mini RV or maybe buy a new jet ski.

Fools?

No, we are in a world of trouble. We have many areas eating away at our survival...

Peak oil and the depletion of ALL fossil fuels including uranium.

Dwindling potable water.

Overpopulation.

A lying, delusional government that can't get to work on restructuring our society, as it can't even admit there is a problem.

A defective model for long term population support that requires constant consumption and unsustainable growth at the expense of sound, long term economic practices.

Future food shortages. Food that is unhealthy and a mindset to 'poison for profit.' Food that is unaffordable.

Global unrest and resource wars brewing.

"A debt-based society cannot prosper and is doomed to fail..." ~ Ron Paul
Last edited by allenwrench on Mon 13 Oct 2008, 11:38:35, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Are we fools? Time to eat some crow?

Unread postby allenwrench » Mon 13 Oct 2008, 11:00:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RedStateGreen', 'I')t just occurred to me that intentionally crashing the market is an excellent way to deal with peak oil. People feel good that the price is going down, even if they now have no money to buy any.

But that's probably just being alarmist.... :roll:


yes, we never know how?
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Re: Are we fools? Time to eat some crow?

Unread postby allenwrench » Mon 13 Oct 2008, 11:17:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Economix', 'I')'d have to disagree in the following ways:

A. If PeakOil is only about "extraction rates," then we ignore the consumption side of the equation. The reason prices went up, in my opinion, was a perception that demand would continue to soar unabated in the face of peak extraction rates. Obviously, demand can fall dramatically in response to economic conditions. Demand can also fall as substitutes enter the marketplace.

B. Substitutes for oil include not only other forms of energy, but other lifestyle and consumption choices. If I reduce my driving by 25% and consolidate my shopping trips, that behavioral choice is in effect a substitute for oil -- in terms of its impact on demand and price.

D. Prices reflect not only reality but our perceptions of reality. I'd say it's pretty clear that most forum contributors on PeakOil have had a crisis mindset that didn't always march in step with changing realities. "The sky is falling. The sky is falling." If we're honest and if we have enough guts, we should admit that this crisis mentality has been overplayed by a country mile.

E. If we expect politicians to admit when they're wrong, we should do the same. It's the responsible thing to do.

I'll admit I've been wrong about the imminent danger of Peak Oil. Anyone else care to do so?




Wrong with imminent danger...well maybe.

As I said lots of volatility and uncertainty, US imports 70% of it crude. I'm still prepping myself. I'm not pulling out my garden and fruit trees and planting grass.

We need demand destruction and new oil finds just to stand still. We need demand destruction and new oil finds to replace the oil wells that are being depleted.

People seem to think the old wells will keep pumping forever. Now, if we power down with DD that matches the depletion, there will be less pain. But as it is, our country needs a certain amount of crude to 'just' get by. Where the DD and that 'minimum number' meets is the question?

I can tell you if crude stay lows or goes to $50, I am going back to old ways, vacations and flying, taking long RV trips and sucking down the crude...after all it IS the American way of life. As I understand others will keep sucking down cheap crude as well.

And still there is the question of America being put on a diet with a prorate resource consumption based on per capita #'s as MD brought up with his '6% for 6%' thread.

Funny thing about crude oil. We say we need to 'save our crude' but If we don't use the crude, it serves no purpose.

Some theories say we need it to keep the earth balanced - but there is no proof about this.

So what good is oil in the ground? Maybe to massage our ego? Hurray we got oil in the ground.

We need to save our crude oil...save it for what?

Maybe petrochemicals so our descendants 'can use' it up?

Maybe national security..to 'gas up' our military and their jets?

But no matter how you slice it crude oil is only good 'to use' and serves no purpose other than what we humans have deemed it worthwhile to use it for.
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Re: Are we fools? Time to eat some crow?

Unread postby allenwrench » Mon 13 Oct 2008, 11:23:22

[quote="Ayoob"]I

I think I'm completely on my own as far as the LATOC posters go.
quote]

Your lucky.

LATOC banned me after my first few hours posting there!
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Re: Are we fools? Time to eat some crow?

Unread postby allenwrench » Mon 13 Oct 2008, 11:26:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', '
')
The peak oilers have been so wrong it's pathetic. The OP is right. Time to eat some crow.



Well, what is your take on how it will unfold?
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Re: Are we fools? Time to eat some crow?

Unread postby allenwrench » Mon 13 Oct 2008, 11:27:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'L')ast year I said that the price of oil would range between $78 and $146 in 2008. So far that is almost exactly the range.

I said months ago, before the Bear Stearns failure, that because of the effects of peak oil, we will have a recession in the second half of 2008, where the economy would fall twice as fast in the fourth quarter as in the third.

Why should I eat crow? And when exactly did cornucopians predict oil going up to $147 this year? And if they didn't predict what happened before, what makes them right now?


I don't predict #'s...I look for direction and trends.

We're doing something near to impossible, which is to predict the future. Tons of IF's, AND's and BUT's that could happen. We just don't know.

As futurists we try to anticipate future events and the direction the world is headed in and as survivalists we try to prepare for those circumstances.
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Re: Are we fools? Time to eat some crow?

Unread postby allenwrench » Mon 13 Oct 2008, 11:35:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'P')ity you put me on your ignore list. Cube also accused me of positing a "strawman argument," even though he clearly had no idea what a strawman argument is.

In other posts after cube's in that thread I was ridiculed up the kazoo. Sorry doomers, you shouldn't have put me on your ignore lists.

Not to mention the many times myself, JD and others tried to tell you guys it was a speculative bubble which was bound to burst, only to be ridiculed over that. :roll:



None of us will be ultimate survivors, we all have to die one day. But the successful survivor extends his or her life beyond an earlier death...a death that was caused by ignorance of how to make that life last longer.

I ignore no one. Blocking due to ego leads to blindness.

There is no such thing as negative or positive attitudes. What is viewed as negative to one person may be viewed as positive to another.

There are no such things as 'opinionated' - 'provocative' 'controversial' subjects.

These are only subjective and prejudicial states of mind.

If one sticks to: true, false or don't know in one's replies they can avoid this trap by arguing facts and not personalities.

Those that can't argue facts argue personalities.

Psychologist William James once said, "A great many people believe they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices."
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