by Jenab6 » Fri 10 Oct 2008, 21:30:18
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', 'D')oomers,
I have been reading that kind of post since forever on this board. So far NOTHING has come true. The supermarket shelfes are stocked, the ATM works, the credit card works, the bank is open, the gas station sells gas. Electricity is available 24/7. UPS delivers all kind of stuff right to my door. Ever more crap is made by chinaman. Where is this doom you talk about? Are we going down this year? Are you sure ? Or maybe 2009? or '10? Maybe '20? Or could it be '50? By 2100 we should all be dead, I'm sure about it.
Believe it or not, sometimes Big Things do happen. Some of them are also Bad Things, i.e., Big Bad Things. The bigger the Thing is, the rarer it is. That means if you stand around waiting for it, you'll probably have to wait a long time. But if you watch closely, you can figure out which kind of Little Things sometimes lead up to Big Things, and when you see those Little Things happen, it means that maybe a Big Thing will also happen before too long.
The thing is, though, nobody can really predict from the Little Things exactly when the Big Thing will occur. And there are a lot of false alarms when one person or another yells, This Is It! This Is The Little Thing That Means The Big Thing Will Happen Tomorrow Or Next Week At The Latest. And mostly those guys who say that are wrong. There's really more Little Things that need to happen first, before the Big Thing does.
But the thing about Big Things is that they do happen, sooner or later. The Great Depression did happen. And there were deep recessions before and after the Great Depression that did happen.
Now, on General Principles, we kind of can see that Some Mighty Big Bad Thing has pretty much gotta happen to the economy before long. We don't really know how long. We sometimes get excited and blow a whistle to make a dramatic gesture. And we whisper in each other's ears about when, and why then, and we're still mostly wrong. But on the General Principles, we're right. The Big Bad Thing will happen. We'd all like to be the one who makes the right prediction, so everybody else has to bow to our sagacity, but we sort of forgive each other for making one wrong guess after another. We wait and we keep watching, and we keep making predictions, and eventually one of them will come true and we'll have found Mister Wise.