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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Oil : Gold Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby sparky » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 17:49:01

.

The surge in oil price is not important , it's only stupid traders covering their loosing positions
it is of no more importance than oil dipping below 100$
but indicate an underlying strength in price around 110~120
with the winter peak demand coming , the price would rise further
we'll see how much the demand has been dampened over the coming month

.
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby Bas » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 17:51:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'S')o, how does a price spike on contract closing day affect the price of oil in the near-term? Now that we've reset to the new front month at a "mere" $108, is it like today's $25 spike never happened, or what? How is this priced into the market?


Technically, today's move doesn't affect the November contract. However it does reveal that one or more groups are attempting to knock down the price of oil by short selling oil contracts they don't have.

There are November contracts representing 300 million barrels expiring next month. The same thing may happen again if that short seller(s) are in there doing their money losing thing again.


could it maybe be that someone big held most of those contracts and knew they had to be bought back and hence sold them for as much as possible?
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby VMarcHart » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 17:55:17

Does it mean no more NASCAR? :twisted:
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby DantesPeak » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 17:58:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'S')o, how does a price spike on contract closing day affect the price of oil in the near-term? Now that we've reset to the new front month at a "mere" $108, is it like today's $25 spike never happened, or what? How is this priced into the market?


Technically, today's move doesn't affect the November contract. However it does reveal that one or more groups are attempting to knock down the price of oil by short selling oil contracts they don't have.

There are November contracts representing 300 million barrels expiring next month. The same thing may happen again if that short seller(s) are in there doing their money losing thing again.


could it maybe be that someone big held most of those contracts and knew they had to be bought back and hence sold them for as much as possible?


That's probably what did happen, and it could have been a game of chicken, but I think it's likely that the all parties figured how much oil was really around - which was not enough.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby Bas » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 18:12:21

funny thing is, Brent never moved beyond $105, so what is really the price of oil right now? Did someone get royally screwed over or has this been a case of market manipulation coming to light?

My first thought though was that the sudden runup had something to do with the spot shortages occuring in the US and the expectation that they might get out of control in the next few days...
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby JohnDenver » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 19:04:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', 'A') Swiss banker on Bloomberg TV last night was saying paper was worthless. He recommended getting gold and commodities, and he stressed PHYSICAL assets, not ETFs. He predicted gold could easily reach $2500/ounce in 2 to 3 years.

ETFs!! hah hah! I love it. A piece of paper that says you own something.

Why does anybody own those when owning the physical bullion is so simple?


Image

I, Franklin D. Roosevelt, President of the United States of America, do declare that said national emergency still continues to exist and pursuant to said section to do hereby prohibit the hoarding gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the continental United States by individuals, partnerships, associations and corporations and hereby prescribe the following regulations for carrying out the purposes of the order:
Peak Oil Debunked
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby bodigami » Tue 23 Sep 2008, 02:25:12

...
Last edited by bodigami on Fri 02 Jan 2009, 21:42:03, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby TheDude » Tue 23 Sep 2008, 03:21:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'L')ock limit, wither is thy sting? :twisted:

Everyone should check out this outstanding recent piece by Nate Hagens: Hedge Funds, Hurricanes and Energy Markets.


Great article Dude.
Thanks for posting.


I follow Nate's every word, he's one of the best peak oil analysts. Take his corpus over Kunstler's any day, though I like Jim's rants as well.

Fascinating theory Dante. PADD 1's record for Total Motor Gasoline imports was around 1.3 mb in a week and the number bounces around quite a bit, does the SEC impose limits on the volume of contracts if physically delivered in some way? There's the possibility the ESF was attempting to compensate for all the shut-in production as well, or is that the domain of the DOE or the like?
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby DantesPeak » Tue 23 Sep 2008, 07:24:34

Never heard of the DOE being authorized to buy any energy products except for the SPR and a heating oil reserve, and some other minor reserves.

However the DOE has authority allocate interstate shipments of energy products, such as through pipelines or inter-state barges, although I'm not sure if they would be able to control foreign gasoline imports.

The CFTC can control contract limits although that doesn't seem to have much influence on trading.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby yesplease » Tue 23 Sep 2008, 09:38:15

And there goes WTI...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Oil falls, Gold rises. Is it the new permanent tendency?

Postby barbara23 » Tue 23 Sep 2008, 16:48:25

Hi, traders! There are many who say that commodities are not related to each other, but in the case of Oil and Gold surely they are! The recent volatility has shown proof of that.

Crude fell after dollar rose, taking gold higher. Other commodities were boosted over rising oil prices. Crude oil for November delivery fell by more than a dollar and a half to sit below $108 a barrel.

Gold was moderate yesterday after US government bailout plan. Spot gold was at $889.90/891.90 an ounce by 0856 GMT, down 1 percent from $900.20 an ounce at the nominal New York close on Monday.

I hope to hear (or read) your impressions for this week ;)

Cheers!

Barbie

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Re: Oil falls, Gold rises. Is it the new permanent tendency?

Postby JPL » Tue 23 Sep 2008, 17:11:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('barbara23', 'H')i, traders! There are many who say that commodities are not related to each other, but in the case of Oil and Gold surely they are! The recent volatility has shown proof of that.

Crude fell after dollar rose, taking gold higher. Other commodities were boosted over rising oil prices. Crude oil for November delivery fell by more than a dollar and a half to sit below $108 a barrel.

Gold was moderate yesterday after US government bailout plan. Spot gold was at $889.90/891.90 an ounce by 0856 GMT, down 1 percent from $900.20 an ounce at the nominal New York close on Monday.

I hope to hear (or read) your impressions for this week ;)

Cheers!

Barbie


A background in piloting old Russian airliners*, setting scuba-diving records, or mountain-climbing without air tanks would be useful for a commodities trader right now. Apart from that, no ideas (grin).

JP

* Edit: BTW, anyone ever flew with those guys around the break-up of the old SU when they were all short of fuel? The bit around take-off when all the cabin staff hustle the passangers to the back seats and get them to pull their baggage with them was a cracker..
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Re: Oil and Gold go Boom-Boom

Postby bodigami » Tue 23 Sep 2008, 17:56:35

...
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Re: Oil falls, Gold rises. Is it the new permanent tendency?

Postby Micki » Tue 23 Sep 2008, 20:19:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('barbara23', 'H')i, traders! There are many who say that commodities are not related to each other, but in the case of Oil and Gold surely they are! The recent volatility has shown proof of that.

Crude fell after dollar rose, taking gold higher. Other commodities were boosted over rising oil prices. Crude oil for November delivery fell by more than a dollar and a half to sit below $108 a barrel.

Gold was moderate yesterday after US government bailout plan. Spot gold was at $889.90/891.90 an ounce by 0856 GMT, down 1 percent from $900.20 an ounce at the nominal New York close on Monday.

I hope to hear (or read) your impressions for this week ;)

Cheers!

Barbie



One of the things I have been saying for a long time now is that Gold does best in an environmnet of counterparty risk.
Oil and gold rises together in inflationary environment but if there is doubt to this, oil can go down while gold still benefits.
The more counterparty risk, the more gold will benefit (VS oil) as the future becomes more uncertain.

Secondly I think both markets now are being manipulated so counterintuitive moves are more likely.
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Oil keeps falling, Gold's still volatile

Postby barbara23 » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 16:05:31

Hi guys! A quick report on the status of our favorite commodities: Crude oil had a disappointing day on Monday, as it fell below $90 a barrel level. The global financial crisis has also affected the commodities, especially energy prices. :cry:

As dollar moved higher against the euro and oil prices lower, gold retreated to a two-week low. Gold for December delivery closed down $11.10 at $833.20 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Cheers!

Barbie :roll:

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Re: Oil keeps falling, Gold's still volatile

Postby smallpoxgirl » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 16:21:01

The only reason that oil has fallen in the last few weeks is that the dollar has gone haywire as people scramble to liquidate capital. Here very shortly the liquidations will taper off, the dollar will drop, and oil will go back up.
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Re: Oil keeps falling, Gold's still volatile

Postby seahorse2 » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 16:42:53

You must be high, gold closed at $883 today, which is up about $20 over yesterday.
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Re: Oil keeps falling, Gold's still volatile

Postby mefistofeles » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 17:14:32

I think oil is definitely an overlooked powerplay. With peakoil and peak finance the implications are that we could get hit with substantial oil drop as credit contracts.

However the biggest bull factor for oil is the dollar. They're already talking about a second bailout.

Once the dollar tanks oil could go up alot.

Gold is always a safe play.

I'm heavily invested in oil, waiting for the dollar to weaken. I suspect that oil will improve substantially once the Europeans get their s*it together.

For the immediate term I'm bearish on the Euro. However I think the Europeans will ultimately come up with a much better plan than the US.

I think its admirable that the Europeans haven't succumbed the same pressure to attempt a continent wide bank check bailout. Although any solution to the banking problems in the Euro Zone will probably take a while.

Oil and Gold are the anti dollar. Once the Treasury attempts to save the commercial paper markets the dollar could be in real trouble. This may be a superb opportunity to buy gold and oil.
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Re: Oil keeps falling, Gold's still volatile

Postby evilgenius » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 18:53:49

In a deflationary environment the few dollars that are left are much more valuable. Even with less oil the remaining dollars will buy more per dollar, for a while. We all know there is only so much in the ground.

What they have to do now is figure out how to get the holders of the national debt (that future generations of Americans owe) to take some kind of pennies for dollars settlement, or that debt will grow according to the same principle. Pennies for dollars is preferable to nothing at all and in a deflationary environment amounts to preservation of capital. Much of that debt is already gone due to it being held by hedge funds and other private mostly off-shore entities that have been wiped out. The amount, however, held by governmental and quasi-governmental entities won't be so easy to liquidate. Those entities will have to be given something.
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