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EU Death Throes Begin in Earnest . . .

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Re: EU Death Throes Begin in Earnest . . .

Unread postby Nickel » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 07:59:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('virgincrude', 'L')ess than 24 hours later, Merkel changes her mind and does something they had agreed NOT to do: guarrantee German citizen's savings.


I think the wrong spin is being put on this. What's going on in the US is the government handing over huge amounts of money to a handful of failing banks so they don't sink beneath the waves with gigantic ripples. In Europe, they're talking about insuring the savings of bank account holders. In and of itself, that doesn't cost a cent; it's a promise made in the event that a bank defaults... only then would money have to be transferred. The idea is to calm panicky people down so they don't haul their money out of the banks and CAUSE the collapse in the first place. Now admittedly, that money has to be set aside and earmarked for that eventuality, and isn't available as such for other uses, at least in the short term... but setting money aside temporarily is not the same as shoveling it into the furnace with both hands the like Fed is doing. It's very much a different operation, and better one, in my opinion. An ounce of prevention as opposed to several hundred billion dollars of "cure".
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Re: EU Death Throes Begin in Earnest . . .

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 08:27:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'e')venthough it's easier and faster for European nations to act alone right now, as there are no clear rules/institutions to deal with situations like this at the current time, it will probably end up with more EU legislation rather than less. Death throws? not in the least.

True, but due to intractable economical crisis (which will get a helpful hand from PO and other resource/environmental troubles pretty soon), such legislation will end up increasingly floated and at the end outrightly ignored.

That is how the end of EU will look like:

Impotent bundles of bureaucrats from Brussels increasingly ignored by more and more nationalistic member state governments and finally blamed for the crisis, rightly or wrongly, doesn't matter.
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Re: EU Death Throes Begin in Earnest . . .

Unread postby Nickel » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 08:35:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'I')mpotent bundles of bureaucrats from Brussels increasingly ignored by more and more nationalistic member state governments and finally blamed for the crisis, rightly or wrongly, doesn't matter.


To do what, exactly? Most of them have a common currency and it's regulated by the ECB. They can't set their own interest rates or control the issue of the currency. They either have to jump ship and re-found their own -- and face, very likely, the immediate drop in its value due to the loss of confidence such a move entails -- or they have to sit tight and ride it out with everyone else. Realistically, it's at least a decade too late for what you're talking about to take place. They're in it together for the long haul now, and that's almost certainly to their mutual benefit. The project was designed to ameliorate the bad times (and prevent the wars that have been Europe's main crop) as well as promote the good ones.
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Re: EU Death Throes Begin in Earnest . . .

Unread postby Dukkha » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 08:52:32

I think the OP has misunderstood the article (though, to be fair, it is badly worded.) It says:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')ermany's finance minister said Monday he is considering creating a "shield" that would protect the country's entire financial sector, arguing it would not be possible to continue to address troubled financial institutions on a case by case basis.

However, Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck made clear that Germany does not envision making its move as part of a U.S.-style bailout plan for all of Europe. He said he and Chancellor Angela Merkel agree that the German government must remain the sole "master of the process."

...Steinbrueck was unyielding in his opposition to a Europe-wide shield


The process of which Merkel is master is a German one, not a European one, which they oppose and so could hardly claim to be its master.
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Re: EU Death Throes Begin in Earnest . . .

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 09:02:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nickel', 'R')ealistically, it's at least a decade too late for what you're talking about to take place. They're in it together for the long haul now, and that's almost certainly to their mutual benefit. The project was designed to ameliorate the bad times (and prevent the wars that have been Europe's main crop) as well as promote the good ones.

Nothing works for ever.
EU is not an exception.
Formuas which were working in the past are unlikely to work in the future, sufficient time given.

If our economic annihilation proceeds, there will be less and less benefits to keep EU going.

It will not be substantially different than Soviet collapse.

In environment of plenty we are building more and more complex structures.
In environment of scarcity we are disassembling these...
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Re: EU Death Throes Begin in Earnest . . .

Unread postby Nickel » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 10:05:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'N')othing works for ever.


Not everything breaks down at the first bump in the road, either.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'I')f our economic annihilation proceeds, there will be less and less benefits to keep EU going.


On the contrary; larger markets and labour areas enable the amelioration of economic downturns by enabling surplus labour to migrate instead of having to stagnate. Areas that are doing better support areas taking the brunt of it... they're not happy about it, but that's the nature of these arrangements. It's the reason we first had regional governments, then nations, and now supra-national trading blocks. I'm not saying times aren't going to get tough. I'm saying that having common institutions will enable people to ride them out better.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'I')t will not be substantially different than Soviet collapse.


Why not? The US didn't immediate bust up during the Depression; neither did Canada or Australia or any other federal system that might have exploded under such pressures.
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Re: EU Death Throes Begin in Earnest . . .

Unread postby galacticsurfer » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 10:12:53

Interesting that a simple article on German reaction to a current crisis is used for a rehash of stereotypes from last crisis. Fighting the last war instead of looking ahead. Bernanke is doing the same thing and getting burned.

Hitler Germany was a Prussian(now part of western Poland mostly) military dominated country with a strong central state in Berlin (now decentralized in strong provinces due to Bavarian insistence after the war) and genetically fairly homogenous. Nowadays there are a lot more foreigners and a democratic/educated culture so essentially previous situation does not apply. Germans admire USA culture and believe they will always steer the world into quiet waters and protect everyone. My German boss is more of a US patriot than I as a US citizen am. I remain cynical.

The USA is now the dominant military power worldwide. although I see similar idiocy (due certainly to widespread TV watching of many hours daily of game shows and US films) and reduction of IQ here in Germany as is apparent in the US, a culture of pacifism is dominant in Germany due to a widespread feeling of guilt over the last war. In other words the prejudice against Germans has become ingrained in the german themselves by western films,etc. and the education system. Germans believe they are evil and got what they deserved or are at the very least cynical towards war. "Leave it to the white hat Americans, our protectors". Maybe Japanese and others around the world have also been willing to accept US protection in return for being left in peace and quiet.

Apparently this worked out well but now could be a severe mistake. Maybe the French have had a better more pragmatic approach to the USA. I think an emergence from self imposed pacifism (colonial status with Nukes and US troops stationed in Germany) is eventually called for. Pull American troops out of Europe and abroad completely. USA is bankrupt and the population is arrogant and morally bankrupt. They are no better than anyone else. Genocidal behaviour is not a teutonic marker on gene no. 13 or something. Get over WWII win as an excuse for global empire building.

About EU disintegration. USA is also an amlagam of countries that don't fit together well. Both could disintegrate. Europe would find less difficulty as it would just be going back to a state of mind of 30-40 years ago. Germans always carried EU budget and stable currency. Lira and Italian government for example were always unstable for example. Maybe the north of USA would be better off without the south much as Italian might be better off without their chaotic south. Maybe this nationalism is a bad idea, go back to old principles of local regional governments like mid 19th Germany and Italy or Hansa cities as trading partners. Paris and London became so huge that they needed a large hinterland to feed them plus massive colonies.

Old jokes from old empires/wars:

"The South shall rise again"
"Der vierte Reich kommt"

I wonder what nostalgic/rebellious previous US citizens (like myself) will say similar to above quotes after their empire has dissolved and they are slaves of some foreign power in coming decades. We can only imagine one saying:

"Suburbia wil rise again"

as he like Charlton Heston, a NYC slave, walks by the fallen Statue of Liberty in a desolate landscape.
"The horror, the horror"
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Re: EU Death Throes Begin in Earnest . . .

Unread postby Snowrunner » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 10:41:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', ' ')8O
Forgot about Russians?
Any major war involving Germany would in all probabilities involve Russians... and they tend not to be friends in major wars...

Essentially most of EU countries which are running npp could have atomic weapons within few months or a year, once such a need arisen.


I didn't forget them, but in the context of "Europe" I persumed EU.

And actually Russia and Germany had a pretty decent relationship for quite a while, two mad men in power not withstanding.

If it goes *boom* though I would expect between Central Europe, not Eastern Europe.
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Re: EU Death Throes Begin in Earnest . . .

Unread postby Snowrunner » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 10:46:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('virgincrude', 'W')hat a waste of EU tax payer's money! All those big wigs flying in and out of the Elysee, with their body guards, secretaries, pen holders, all those bottles of Evian, Chateau Laffitte and what have you, and just for a photo-op to tell everybody: don't worry, we'll think of something!!


Actually as I understood it Sarkozy invited as the French Premier, not as the EU President, as such it was probably only the French, British and German taxpayers that had to cough up for that.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut the fact that every nation is looking to save itself regardless of pan-european 'agreements' statements' or treaties, is actually going to work in favour of heavier burocracy and more control, and a European 'reunification' adding up to more government intervention, and the de-facto establishment of a European Government, something no citizen of France, UK, Germany, or Ireland to name a few, actually want.


Well, not in the currently proposed form, no. But there are still supreme courts and Parliaments to deal with, so far nobody has proposed to just sign a piece of paper, even though Germany HAD ratified the EU Constitution it literally "died on the table" as several people had called onto the Supreme Court and some opinions I had read was that the supreme court would not agree with the contract in it's current form (they would essentially legislate themselves out of a job).

It will be interesting to watch, I think in it's current state the EU could not have resolved this in a way that would have been efficent in all countries, the current "seperate" approach is not a bad one, if that will, in the long run, lead to a sneaky way of getting the EU constitution hammered through we'll see.
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Re: EU Death Throes Begin in Earnest . . .

Unread postby Snowrunner » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 10:48:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nickel', 'I')t's less of an issue, though, if the Brits don't do it because their actions don't impact directly on the euro. It doesn't help, of course, to have a big member of the EU break ranks on deposit security, but then, doing what's right for everyone instead of just serving their own interests hasn't been big on Britain's agenda since they joined. France was probably wise to nix them twice for membership.


Actually it is, for them anyway, they live and die by the money markets / trade, if people perceive the UK as "weak" and not offering protection money will flow someplace else, most likely Frankfurt and that would be bad indeed for London and the UK as a whole.

They really have not a lot of choice and I can just imagine brown stewing with rage over this one, he has enough problems as is, and doesn't really need this kind of problem right now, much less so as the UK financials aren't that hot to begin with.
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Re: EU Death Throes Begin in Earnest . . .

Unread postby Snowrunner » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 10:53:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nickel', 'R')eally, there should be a "two-speed Europe". It's time for the committed partners to move the project ahead and stop being held back by the foot-draggers. They can catch up later... or not, as the case may be. The United States didn't demand unanimity when it re-established itself in 1787. They said as soon as nine of the thirteen states had ratified the new constitution, it would go into effect for them. The others could figure it out later. And they did; eventually, they all joined. Europe needs to abandon the principle of unanimity and simply put the next level into effect for those ready for it. It's the only way.


That may be true, but none of the States that have ratified really did it in an "open and honest" manner, the problem is that even Germany can't right now ratify the treaty because several people have called on the supreme court questioning the constitutionality, essentially the treaty would abolish the Grundgesetz and replace it with the EU Constitution, but there is this nasty little paragraph in the Grundgesetz that requires a referendum for it and that wasn't held. There is a reason why Horst Koehler did not sign it into law, the Supreme Court is most likely going to overturn it anyway, at least in it's current form.

The biggest problem for the EU right now is that they expanded too fast eastwards and are now facing a handful of countries that want all the benefits but none of the responsibility, Poland especially has been a poster child for this behaviour, they try to play Geopolitics by trying to toe the EU line when it comes to handouts and siding with the US anytime things don't go their way.
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Re: EU Death Throes Begin in Earnest . . .

Unread postby virgincrude » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 11:12:09

SOS asked for a link to Spain's interior minister who today said on Spanish TV that "everybody is improvising":



RTVE (In Spanish, no subtitles)

His words are at 05:22 into the tape ..... sorry no subtitles but someobody may put it up on YouTube in a day or two

Snowrunner: I appreciate your input and mostly agree with your take on the EU
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Re: EU Death Throes Begin in Earnest . . .

Unread postby Cashmere » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 11:49:52

Nickel is aboard!

Yay! O Canada, the greatest place on Earth, with Garth Brooks, and Michael Moore, from shore to Freezing Shore!

Awesome. We've got the Canadian Patriot and the German Patriot (living in Canada) fighting it out.

Gotta bet on the German.


Some dude wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')owever, since the author Cash is merely an average American: clueless as to any nationality outside his own frontier, we've ended up with a useless exchange relating to events in Europe more than 70 years ago. Yawn.


Come on man, is that the best you can do? To say I'm average?

Ahhahahahaaaaaahhahahahahaahaha.

You had 1,000 incisive insults to choose, and you went with the one that doesn't have a tincture of truth to it?

It's like arguing with your supermodel wife and calling her ugly.

What is it about nationalism?

On this board, you have people who are in the 1% or so of people who get resource depletion and peak oil. By all measures a giant step outside of the system into which they were born.

But almost to a person, nobody can see the faults and limitations of their own country.

The Canadian can't see Canada's complicity in U.S. behavior and complete dependence on the U.S. economy.

The German is trying to convince us that Germans are warm and fuzzy and don't want to kick the sh-t out of their neighbors.

And now I've got a guy, who is probably a European, but maybe just Europhile, who makes the ridiculous statement that, "with a useless exchange relating to events in Europe more than 70 years ago. Yawn."

The implication, of course, is that 70 years ago is so last century, and has no bearing on what is going on now.

Really? Is that your jello underpinning?

Ok. Why don't we all take a ride to Germany and sell some Nazi paraphernalia?

Or France. How about that?

I'll have a bunch of fake 9mm Lugers and SS eagles made up, and we'll go sell them as mementos of the old, forgotten, irrelevant days.

What's that? They'd put me in jail?

How about we just talk about how many Jews were killed? Hmm?

I'll argue that 5,999,999 Jews were killed. 1 fewer than the official number.

What's that?

There is no free speech in Germany and France and they would put me in jail for saying that?


And your claim is what?

That what happened 63 years ago is not relevant to today?

How about we start a new national socialist party in Germany?

What's that? More jail time?

I won't even get into that the put a gun to your head and walk you to jail if you try to homeschool your kids in Germany.

Can't have any children thinking that a space outside the box exists.

63 years ago is all that matters.

Today is irrelevant.

Hitler called it the 3rd reich because he, and every other german, was intimately versed in the 1st and 2nd reich.

In other words, Europe has always been about history and will always be about history.

Everybody in Europe is afraid of the Germans.

With very good reason.
Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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Re: EU Death Throes Begin in Earnest . . .

Unread postby Nickel » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 12:12:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'N')ickel is aboard!

Yay! O Canada, the greatest place on Earth, with Garth Brooks, and Michael Moore, from shore to Freezing Shore!


Take a Ritalin, Garth.
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Re: EU Death Throes Begin in Earnest . . .

Unread postby Nickel » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 12:20:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snowrunner', 'T')he biggest problem for the EU right now is that they expanded too fast eastwards and are now facing a handful of countries that want all the benefits but none of the responsibility, Poland especially has been a poster child for this behaviour, they try to play Geopolitics by trying to toe the EU line when it comes to handouts and siding with the US anytime things don't go their way.


I strongly agree; I felt the EU expanded much too quickly eastward. Membership in the Union should have been held out to the countries of the former Warsaw Pact as something to aspire to... get their democratic, legal, and financial houses in order over a generation or so and then be allowed in, one at a time. God knows, it's done wonders to straighten Turkey out, even if it looks like they'll never be allowed to grasp the brass ring.

I also agree on the US point. I thought it was disgusting of Poland and the Czechs to barge into the Union and then try to sew their stars on Old Glory as well. Do you want to be a member of a peaceful, progressive union, or just the standard-bearing satellite of yet another military power? I thought it showed real immaturity.
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Re: EU Death Throes Begin in Earnest . . .

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 12:55:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nickel', '
')I also agree on the US point. I thought it was disgusting of Poland and the Czechs to barge into the Union and then try to sew their stars on Old Glory as well. Do you want to be a member of a peaceful, progressive union, or just the standard-bearing satellite of yet another military power? I thought it showed real immaturity.

That's easy.

Poles want to hack those structural funds to improve a bit home infrastructure.

It is also quite useful to be able to get some better paid job abroad, possibly in Germany or in the UK.
That is to get rich quick.

So as long as there are those funds and jobs available thanks to courtesy of German, British and some other taxpayers, I think Poles will support very much EU integration but once the party is over - bye, bye Europe.

NB.
That is not only a Polish trait.
Most of other Eastern European nations (perhaps with exception of Baltic states) are taking similar approach, but because they are weaker than Poland, they are not very vocal about it.

Baltic states are very proeuropean because they think that EU will prevent their incorporation to Russia.
Fools...

There are also plenty of other nations waiting eagerly for EU collapse.
Brits are perhaps best known, but I think that Irish are even more disillusioned.

And Italians?
Oh Italians... if we only put them in charge of ECB they would surely never leave...
I bet, Spaniards would love to help there too.

IMHO European Union is a full belly product, and will last for as long as European bellies are full.
And I don't think that these bellies will stay full for very long.
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Re: EU Death Throes Begin in Earnest . . .

Unread postby Cabrone » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 15:36:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ctually it is, for them anyway, they live and die by the money markets / trade, if people perceive the UK as "weak" and not offering protection money will flow someplace else


It looks like this may be happening. Today the UK govt is considering nationalising parts of the high street banks as their ability to get credit is drying up.

As for the Euro countries I think with all this credit crunch malarkey it's dawning on the political classes that if you want to share a currency you need to have tighter political control across all states that use said currency.

Trouble is Europe, unlike the US, has a hugely diverse set of cultures backed up with a long and bloody history. The thought a EU state with US style federal control is an anathema to a hell of a lot of ordinary people in this continent.

So the battle will be between the politicians 'who know what is best for the little people' and the little people themselves.

The good news is that with recent French, Danish and Irish rejections of EU proposed control it looks like the people are winning.

I'm just glad the UK is out of this artificial Euro currency experiment.
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Re: EU Death Throes Begin in Earnest . . .

Unread postby cephalotus » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 15:46:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', '
')It's been what? 60 years?

My God, the Germans must be simply chomping at the bit to invade somebody. This will be the perfect cover.



Quite true.

We started with Afghanistan this time, looked like a good idea... ;-)

From there we will conquer the whole world. Just look at our huge military budget and the amount of nuclear weapons, cruise missiles and aircraft carriers that we have invested in, say compared to, hmmm, the USA...
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Re: EU Death Throes Begin in Earnest . . .

Unread postby Nickel » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 16:04:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cabrone', 'T')he thought a EU state with US style federal control is an anathema to a hell of a lot of ordinary people in this continent.


I don't think that's what they're really aiming at, nor is it achievable. The EU works best when it regulates the things that Europe holds in common -- trade, commerce, the movement of people -- and works together on common issues like foreign affairs and defence. It's a long way from being a holistic federal system.
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