[Eli]

First it is deflation and sever deflation at that.

Commodities are all heading into the toilet, people who still have 401ks are unfortunatley what is termed bag holders ( don't look in the bag).

Just as the roaring credit market allowed crackheads to buy 500,000 McMansions it also allowed bad business to easily refinance their debt. It has gotten so bad now that even good business cannot finance their debt. This will result in job losses at a staggering pace.

All these businesses stock prices are now priced for a slow down, but they are not priced for the credit world being shut down. More 401k bag holders.

Look around at all the local regional banks in your area most of them are going to go under. There is not enough money to save all the big fish let a lone the small fry regional banks. These however are the banks of small business when they go so do a lot of the small businessmen in your area. Did I mention job losses?

Once we get to the bottom of that pit then we will likely see inflation but not until then.

[frankthetank]

In a deflationary enviroment, why wouldn't the govenrment just send out money to us peasants? Just let the treasury presses go into ovrdrive?

[idiom]

The only reason lobbyists exist is because your precious emperor is corrupt.

[Micki]

As scary as things are looking, I don't think asian markets have gone in the worst scenario mode.
Sure Aussie ASX is currently down some 3.5% or round 175 in points but there are a few things that are drawing my attention;

1) the market opened at -70 which was set already by overnight trades on Friday. From there it was reasonably stable until we got close to lunch hour when is started falling quite dramatically.
Who sells at lunch? Mainly small time investors/traders.

2) Volume is still reasonably low and in some cases minimal.
A lot of % drops that I am looking at ar for 5-9% at volumes of 100,000-500K shares that should be trading in volumes of 1-5M.

3) Spreads seem to be increasing on many shares. That results in the above large % drops even on miniscule volume.

I have also yet to see how the market closes as this is very telling.
But I can't help to think the market is reaching lows for timebeing and someone is making bargain pickings on some shares.

I would like to wait another day or two to see what is happening to credit markets/libor etc. But as I mentioned, looking at the market I can't see that the sky is falling even if it is down.

By the way, quite a few technical analysts have concluded that sharemarkets are in for a multi-month counter trend rally.
i.e. bearmarket will probably remain in place, but no rarely does any bear market go straight down.

If I do trading on this, I will most likely start with something that trades 24hrs like ASX200 index so that stops can trigger without huge gaps. (some risks like weekends and gap down monday morning) I also noticed that some of the miners now have very attractive yields and are priced below bookvalue, so maybe this is the time I've been waiting for. (Should I convert some paper bullion I have to mining shares? Soooo hard question. Gold has however held up nicely thanks to low AUD so my thinking is that if Gold goes up, probably so will AUD dilluting some gains.)

Good luck everyone.

[DantesPeak]

The FT says the Fed is about to expand monetary policy even more.
That may help the market for a few hours.

It seems only a few months ago some posters here thought I was crazy when I said the Fed would add trillions $s in new money. By Monday, they may be very close to the $1 trillion mark over the last year in new Fed fiat money.

Anyway, we still have the end of day Monday Fannie/Freddie derivative settlement, and I don't know how that will work out if Lehman and AIG have to cough up billions $s for that. Generally the courts have let derivatives continue through bankruptcy.

So it's hard to say just where we will be in 24 hours.

[the48thronin]

Cashmere darn it I agree again this HAS TO STOP!

We do not need but are certainly going to get no matter who wins the election ( if we even have one) more government!

PS I have a flag pole. I fly the POW-MIA flag when I am home during daylight. ( so that I can be sure it will be lowered if it starts to rain etc.) Otherwise I leave the pole bare!

[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'T')he FT says the Fed is about to expand monetary policy even more.
That may help the market for a few hours.

It seems only a few months ago some posters here thought I was crazy when I said the Fed would add trillions $s in new money. By Monday, they may be very close to the $1 trillion mark over the last year in new Fed fiat money. Anyway, we still have the end of day Monday Fannie/Freddie derivative settlement, and I don't know how that will work out if Lehman and AIG have to cough up billions $s for that. Generally the courts have let derivatives continue through bankruptcy.

So it's hard to say just where we will be in 24 hours.

[frankthetank]

Joel-

Put up a pirate flag. They look pretty cool.

[Cashmere]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'T')he FT says the Fed is about to expand monetary policy even more.
That may help the market for a few hours.

It seems only a few months ago some posters here thought I was crazy when I said the Fed would add trillions $s in new money. By Monday, they may be very close to the $1 trillion mark over the last year in new Fed fiat money. Anyway, we still have the end of day Monday Fannie/Freddie derivative settlement, and I don't know how that will work out if Lehman and AIG have to cough up billions $s for that. Generally the courts have let derivatives continue through bankruptcy.

So it's hard to say just where we will be in 24 hours.

[Cid_Yama]

<i>Relax - we have 15 years...

All is well.</i>

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!

[TreebeardsUncle]

I think we are getting close to a bottom in the US stock market.
Am not sure exactly what it will be but figure it will dip into the 9000s, probably around 9700 by the end of the month and by Christmas we should be well over the lows. Doubt if it will go into the 8000s. Why? Because most of the problems are known, acknowledge, and priced in now. They are no longer being ignored or denied. Folks, if anything, are now excessively fearful and bearish which is an indicator it should soon be a good time to buy.After all, all this fuss is do to housing prices being bid up too high in the 2000s, and now they need to come down.
g

[ohanian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', 'I') think we are getting close to a bottom in the US stock market.
Am not sure exactly what it will be but figure it will dip into the 9000s, probably around 9700 by the end of the month and by Christmas we should be well over the lows. Doubt if it will go into the 8000s. Why? Because most of the problems are known, acknowledge, and priced in now. They are no longer being ignored or denied. Folks, if anything, are now excessively fearful and bearish which is an indicator it should soon be a good time to buy.After all, all this fuss is do to housing prices being bid up too high in the 2000s, and now they need to come down.
g

[Micki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ohanian', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', 'I') think we are getting close to a bottom in the US stock market.
Am not sure exactly what it will be but figure it will dip into the 9000s, probably around 9700 by the end of the month and by Christmas we should be well over the lows. Doubt if it will go into the 8000s. Why? Because most of the problems are known, acknowledge, and priced in now. They are no longer being ignored or denied. Folks, if anything, are now excessively fearful and bearish which is an indicator it should soon be a good time to buy.After all, all this fuss is do to housing prices being bid up too high in the 2000s, and now they need to come down.
g

[virgincrude]

I can't help drawing the analogy between the immediate post 9/11 scenario, and how we're being played like fiddles by the MSM and banker-politicians right now.

After 9/11 the whole world suddenly had to be afraid, be very afraid. It could happen to YOU! These terrorists are EVERYWHERE and they hate our freedoms! It was so handy for reducing civil liberties, reinforcing old suspicions and hatreds, introducing many new laws which have utterly eroded the American constitution for example, and made average citizens around the Western world's daily lives a bit more controlled: airport security, street cameras, private security guards/policing etc., etc. Since 9/11 across the Western world it has been harder to open a bank account, get a passport, and travel. We've put up with the new restrictions because it was pretty obvious nobody wanted to let something like 9/11 happen again and again....

The US has just experienced the financial tsunami predicted by the likes of Ruppert and later also by far more mainstream and respected commentators, economists, politicians etc., and now the talk is of a global financial melt-down. Imminent!

In the US this means you have just been stuffed like the proverbial Thanksgiving turkey, by the banker-politicians who actually caused the whole system to get to the state it's in: the Economic Stabilisation Act means no bank anywhere across the US is now obliged to cough up your savings, the entire nation's civilian owned money are now effectively nationalised.

This event means that Europe is being primed for a similar banker's coup, and writers in the MSM (the Telegraph is known as the Tory-graph in reference to the conservative party in the UK i.e right wing) across the continent are spinning it to the hilt.

I'm not saying we aint in crisis. Just saying, hold on, please think a little: are we not being led like sheep to the slaughter for the second time in a decade .....?

This sums it up:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.”
- Thomas Jefferson 1802

[pedalling_faster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DaleFromCalgary', 'A')s others have mentioned elsewhere, clear your decks and pay off any debt.

[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pedalling_faster', 'a')nd make sure you're completely caught up on DENTAL WORK.

[AlexdeLarge]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', 'I') think not have teeth may be a good survival strategy as we move down the back side of hubbert's peak.

[JPL]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlexdeLarge', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', 'I') think not have teeth may be a good survival strategy as we move down the back side of hubbert's peak.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', 'R')elax - we have 15 years...All is well.

[Dan1195]

We will see what the far eastern markets do..Maybe they will all get the same bounce wall street got today late in the session. If enough people feel a well coordinated effort is being made, the situation has a better chance of stabilizing.