[Revi]

I think we may be closer than you think. If the credit markets are frozen and can't thaw companies are running out of money. They will start to lay off soon, and then every other sector of the economy starts to hurt too. We may be only a couple of weeks from real problems in my humble opinion. link

[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') think we may be closer than you think. If the credit markets are frozen and can't thaw companies are running out of money. They will start to lay off soon, and then every other sector of the economy starts to hurt too. We may be only a couple of weeks from real problems in my humble opinion. link

[Jotapay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') think we may be closer than you think.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '
')The only reason we have AE companies now, is due to a secret government program where secret agents secretly traveled back to the early 80s and secretly abducted entire AE companies, then set them up secretly in the present so they not so secretly could no longer exist all over again after oil's price drops. All of this just so that the secret of AE not existing stays a secret.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he LIBOR was at its highest rate EVER today at around 6.88%

[Sys1]

MrBill : If you define TSHTF as thermonuclear war or mad max, we are obviously not in such a bad situation. Anyway, I think you're wrong when you minimize the financial crisis. A great depression is something huge, many people will become jobless and poors, they will perhabs become criminals or just rioting every days, which will then oblige our politics to become more and more fascists. As this situation will hit the whole world, things could get upside down quite quickly, especially in China and India if the grid say game over. The last point is that this financial crisis would not have occured with 10$ oil. Inflation of energy has hit real economy before hitting the financial market (which in a positive feedback hits more real economy). It's inflation which destroyed real estate bubble and costs of enterprises.

[MrBill]

I disagree. But that's okay. I am here to share ideas, not sell anyone on my vision of the future. This credit crisis caused by the housing bubble bursting and then the credit bubble bursting is directly affecting Main Street, and the affects of that can lead to another Depression if not properly handled.

However, I do not link this current crisis is being caused either to a shortage of energy - oil in particular - or the high cost of energy. Commodity prices are low by historical standards especially if you strip out the currency and inflation effects of a weak US dollar. Of course, if consumers had not purchased $400.000 homes that they could not afford that are now worth 20% less - at adjustable rate mortgages that are now resetting higher at rates they can also not afford - then they would have more money to pay for $3-4 gasoline or food that has gone up in price, but still represents less than 10% of an average household's expenditures. But, of course, it is hard to absorb cost increases if your savings are negative and a good chunk of your disposable income is already commited to repaying debt. Even millionaires can and do manage to live beyond their financial means.

I am not downplaying this particular financial crisis. I am in the middle of it. But 'The WTSHTF Moment' was supposed to be when the price of houses collapsed to zero because no one could afford to live in them or pay to heat them. When there was no gasoline at the pump at any price. When grocery stores were empty. When life in general looked like life in New Orleans after Katerina/Rita. Those are the WTSHTF stories that I have been reading on PO since 2005. When Kunstler said that by winter there would be NO natural gas and we would be burning granny to keep warm.

That is the problem with hyperbole. It can mean anything and nothing at the same time. The collapse of the USSR saw economic activity fall 50% in some satelite areas/regions. In some cases it has not recovered from those levels even almost 20-years later. That is a severe economic slump. And yet not the end of Russia or those CIS states. When everyone is talking about zombie hoards I expect at least an Argentina style debt default or a failed state like Zimbabwe or maybe Somalia. Again for most of us we are no where near there, yet.

The problem with peak oil is that if you look for it everywhere, you will find it everywhere, even where it is not the cause of the problem you are seeing. Like this credit crisis. Hyperbole.

What this crisis should teach us for the future - especially in developed markets that see fewer financial meltdowns - is how quickly events can snowball out of control, and when they do how powerless the authorities are to help us.

[Gebari]

I don't think there will be a single moment when "TSHTF" (asides from global nuclear war). It will be a series of developing crises that slowly get more serious.

I also think that this crisis is very much linked to oil. The last 4 major economic crises have followed spikes in oil prices:

2007-2008 (Oil price spike, serious economic crisis)
1991 (Oil price spike due to Gulf War, savings and loan crisis, recession)
1979 (Iranian revolution, recession)
1973 (Arab oil embargo, recession).

A coincidence? I think not. The current crisis was always coming but I feel the recent oil price spike triggered it. It could have exasperated the debt crisis because the bill to import oil for the US (and other importers) exploded in recent years, and they probably borrowed to afford it, causing an increase in debt and credit. This whole financial crisis is rooted in debt and credit.

I'm not sure of the exact mechanism, but the correlation is too tight to ignore for me.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'T')he only reason, why they may go for good will be a lack of capital to recreate them in the future.
Eg, oil will drop to $40 or whatever (or go up to $1000 due to hyperinflation) and it will still seem very expensive and alternative energy will be even more expensive.

[Jotapay]

There is still not a pile of dead hunger-zombies in my front yard..... Still no SHTF. The OP is running out of time on his prediction.

[StuckInPhilly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StuckInPhilly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eXpat', 'I') though they would be able to delay the crash, at least till after the US elections, but the system is going down and down. The mammoth has gained momentum and there´s no way to stop it.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StuckInPhilly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I')f anything is for certain it is that some of us will not get out this d00mc0pianism.
Some only got out of the last one because of the real world and that was when we had a little thing called history.
The d00m3rz knew what to do to get us out, but didn't do it.

[TWilliam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'B')ut, of course, it is hard to absorb cost increases if your savings are negative and a good chunk of your disposable income is already commited to repaying debt.

[mgibbons19]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'T')hat is the problem with hyperbole. It can mean anything and nothing at the same time.

[MrBean]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'H')owever, I do not link this current crisis is being caused either to a shortage of energy - oil in particular - or the high cost of energy. Commodity prices are low by historical standards especially if you strip out the currency and inflation effects of a weak US dollar. Of course, if consumers had not purchased $400.000 homes that they could not afford that are now worth 20% less - at adjustable rate mortgages that are now resetting higher at rates they can also not afford - then they would have more money to pay for $3-4 gasoline or food that has gone up in price, but still represents less than 10% of an average household's expenditures. But, of course, it is hard to absorb cost increases if your savings are negative and a good chunk of your disposable income is already commited to repaying debt. Even millionaires can and do manage to live beyond their financial means.

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('burtonridr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mgibbons19', 'J')ust as a note, it's been 17 months since this thread was started. How are we going to define success or failure 6 weeks from now?

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StuckInPhilly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StuckInPhilly', 'I')f anything is for certain it is that we will not get out this depression. We only got out of the last one because of WWII and that was when we had lotsa cheap gas. The gubment knew what to do to get us out, but didn't do it.

[Alcassin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'T')he problem with peak oil is that if you look for it everywhere, you will find it everywhere, even where it is not the cause of the problem you are seeing. Like this credit crisis. Hyperbole.
What this crisis should teach us for the future - especially in developed markets that see fewer financial meltdowns - is how quickly events can snowball out of control, and when they do how powerless the authorities are to help us.

[IslandCrow]

Are sure we have the right image?

The image of TSHTF indicates that the bad stuff is distributed around the place (such as all American taxpayers bailing out the bankers) and most people get hit by little bits of it. In this use we can change the 'Hitting' to 'Has hit', with the realisation that the fan is still spinning and more 'Stuff' is on its way.

However, it seems that most people on this site use the 'TSHFT' to means something like "Totally Buried Under a Load of Turd" (TBUALOT*) an event that leaves us unable to breath and so is not a pleasant end!

So yes TSHTF is happening now and will continue to happen, but we are not nearly at the TBUALOT stage.

* copyright by IslandCrow, but please suggest a more usable name if you can think of one.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'T')he latter, I guarantee. For every 3 of his/her good thoughts, he/she needs to balance with what you describe as "general disgust by writing nonsense". I elected to pass of his/hers posts, good or bad. He/she is the only inhabitant of my Ignore List. Want to bet there will be a intellectual reply to this?