Why a Housing Recovery Is Far Off
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')The key problem now is not the level of nominal mortgage rates, which are not particularly high by the standards of the past decade. Instead, buyers are backing off because the real mortgage rate has rocketed and continues to rise. At the peak of the boom, people essentially were being paid to buy a home. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in 2005 was a tax-deductible 5.9%. The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight says that home prices rose 10.7% that year.
As long as buyers expected prices to keep rising, the implied real mortgage rate -- home-price increase minus mortgage-interest rate -- was minus 4.8%. This was an enormous incentive to borrow heavily to buy real estate. Result: a bubble.
But recently, the average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.5%, so with home prices up just 3%, real mortgage rates are now 3.5%. And with most potential buyers well aware of the huge excess supply of homes, there's no reason to expect prices to rebound soon. A reasonable person might expect them to fall further, boosting the real mortgage rate further.