When i watched the hubbert curb, the first thing i noticed was the peak extraction itself.
This peak means that we won't be able to grow anymore, so a crash will happen in our capitalism economy, because founded on debts.
IMO, things are not so simple. The question is not just about the growth itself, but its speed. The more you get close to peak oil, the more growth opportunities are reduced (watch the shape of Hubbert curb).
Some decades ago, the growing of oil extraction was awesome, allowing an economy's debt based to be healthy.
Now that the growing get slower and slower, economy is slowing too, becoming unable to pay the debts accumulated in the past. Economy can't get out of this vicious circle.
Knowing that peak oil is for 2008 (ASPO source), inflation explosion should happen somewhere betwen now and the peak.
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Crash should happen long before peak oil ?
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Crash should happen long before peak oil ?
by Sys1 » Thu 24 Mar 2005, 05:32:48
Last edited by Sys1 on Thu 24 Mar 2005, 06:52:02, edited 1 time in total.
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by Doly » Thu 24 Mar 2005, 06:11:46
It's the point I've been making: the critical point isn't peak oil, but the point where demand is greater than supply. If demand grows very fast (as it is doing) and supply can't keep pace, economic problems start.
And this is happening right now, and it doesn't matter so much when, exactly, the point of maximum output happens.
And this is happening right now, and it doesn't matter so much when, exactly, the point of maximum output happens.
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by Aaron » Thu 24 Mar 2005, 08:51:59
Won't those higher prices curb demand though?
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.
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by Sys1 » Thu 24 Mar 2005, 09:51:21
Aaron : "Won't those higher prices curb demand though?"
As there's no alternative to oil (at least for the moment), curbing demand means curbing growth. Oil is not like strawberries. We can't shift to something else when it becomes expensive.
As there's no alternative to oil (at least for the moment), curbing demand means curbing growth. Oil is not like strawberries. We can't shift to something else when it becomes expensive.
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by Aaron » Thu 24 Mar 2005, 09:54:53
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'A')aron : "Won't those higher prices curb demand though?"
As there's no alternative to oil (at least for the moment), curbing demand means curbing growth. Oil is not like strawberries. We can't shift to something else when it becomes expensive.
As there's no alternative to oil (at least for the moment), curbing demand means curbing growth. Oil is not like strawberries. We can't shift to something else when it becomes expensive.
By "curbing demand", I mean as prices rise, people, companies & governments can afford less of it yes?
The higher the price... the less you can afford.
How much gas would you buy if it was $1 million per gallon?
Right... none.
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.
Hazel Henderson
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by Duende » Sun 08 May 2005, 00:14:53
I think Sys1 is saying that oil, is by and large, is inelastic. Perhaps more inelastic than people would like to admit. Over the last decade, demand has increased in the face of significant price rises in the cost of oil.
The question becomes, exactly how costly could oil get before demand is reduced? ...I bet the Saudis are wondering that right now, and that may be why they aren't boosting production.
The question becomes, exactly how costly could oil get before demand is reduced? ...I bet the Saudis are wondering that right now, and that may be why they aren't boosting production.
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Re: Crash should happen long before peak oil ?
by AdamB » Mon 08 Sep 2025, 15:00:50
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'W')hen i watched the hubbert curb, the first thing i noticed was the peak extraction itself.
This peak means that we won't be able to grow anymore, so a crash will happen in our capitalism economy, because founded on debts.
This peak means that we won't be able to grow anymore, so a crash will happen in our capitalism economy, because founded on debts.
This is a great summary of the peak oil idea.
Peak means we won't grow anymore (even though we have past other global oil peaks), crash is inevitable (probably true, and happened in 2008, but no requirement it be oil related), and it has to do with debt (throw in every poorly thought through wet dream Armie has ever had in his life).
You can probably capture 90% of the peak oil hysteria somewhere in any of these, or their combinations and permutations.
Here is what peak oilers can rarely do. UNDERSTAND WHY THEY WERE WRONG. Rinse, recycle repeat is all the world has gotten from amateur hour.
Oh, they will make up excuses for why they got it wrong, but the first thing to watch out for is how often they reach for any of these items, or their permutations...AGAIN. That is how irresistable those claims are to amateurs..how enticing.
Solving peak oil required a focus on just a few particulars, but an important core of information.
A) How much oil and gas is left to be produced.Not horseshit bell shaped curves, but technical information involving field/formation level geologic and engineering parameters. These oil and gas volumes need to be broken into 4 sub-categories, each solved independently.
2) The cost of development for each of these particular sub-categories, within their country of ownership, specifically CapX, OpX, taxes and royalties, transportation and processing, etc etc.
3) The expected production profile of each type of development, based on a development scheme resembling that of development to date in that type of accumulation, and then a ranking at the basin level from most economic to least.
4) A economic model that is asked the question....:if you are going to develop resources over the coming decades...what oil/gas price will develop how much oil and gas on an annual basis from where going forward. Decades at least.
Do this (if you are really clever capture the stochastic nature of this entire system
) and you have something worth talking about. It is commercially available as well, Rystad did a good job of working through this system and will let folks have a seat to build their own scenarios for $XXXXX/year. It lacked the technical aspects I was interested in, but it certainly can cough up an answer any of peakers can compare our answers to. They also do well in handling some reasonable P10/P90 estimates....again...lacking the granularity I was interested in. So peak oil has been solved, but the people doing it know better than to claim it as a definitive year, as price is always in the picture, moving around the possible timing. One of the big misses by peakers, and the worst transgression, is how price is involved in all of this as a prime independent variable.
Peakers just say "slap a bell shaped curve on it and peak happens in (fill in date based on nothing), world ends, news at 11".
Anyway, just a thought I had.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', '
')Knowing that peak oil is for 2008 (ASPO source), inflation explosion should happen somewhere betwen now and the peak.
Sources matter Sys1. ASPO never made it past bell shaped curves to even get to Step 1, let alone attempt to tackle the price issue. They failed, but more importantly? They didn't even know WHY, and certainly couldn't ever EXPLAIN IT TO THE RUBES.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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