[yull]

Funny how the only people who predicted this "speculative bubble" were a handful of peak oilers.

[sufferringandglory]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yull', 'F')unny how the only people who predicted this "speculative bubble" were a handful of peak oilers.

[MrBean]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'M')y guess is GS doesn't understand the net-export theory. (Not really a theory). Even big shots like him who are aware of the problems associated with a global peak seem to have huge blind spots including being totally ignorant of the implications of net-exports peaking.

[MrBean]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', ' ') Once we hit the peak of oil production, we are likely to see an inverted version of this pattern--7 years of economic contraction followed by 1-2 years of economic growth.

[americandream]

Actually, Soros is a Jew, my ol mate.

[copious.abundance]

Been wanting to bump up this thread for a while. This was a pretty accurate call by Barron's. And so far, their predicted bottom of $100 has turned out to be conservative.

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'A')ctually, I think there will be a bounce, but for different reason. Both China and India, with economies built around "in-sourced" manufacturing out sourced from the USA and other countries, will hit a roadblock with oil prices. Their labor costs are almost zero already and their margins are ultra slim. With no room in their profit margin for rising commodity costs, they will pass them on to the US, who is already in a recession and diverting money away from Walmart into their gas tanks and grocery shopping. Right now there are big deals on TVs and other electronics because US consumers have cut back on that spending considerably and it will only get worse. The Chinese in particular, will see declining orders as stuff sits on shelves in US stores. Less manufacturing production means less demand for commodities such as oil. China seems to make most of the worlds plastic, which has ethylene as it's primary ingredient. Declining commodity (oil) consumption in China, combined with demand destruction in the US will ease oil prices considerably in the short run.

However, this extra capacity will probably be answered by recovering economies and a return to high oil prices within a couple of years. I think it should work like a yo-yo for a while, with each recession deeper and deeper and each recovery more and more shallow.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'I') read the articles I posted carefully again, in case I may have missed something. But again, the concept of an "oil bubble" is taken as a reality as much as the sky is blue - even some persons excepting oil to rise in price where quoted as calling oil in a bubble too.

Newspeak has taken over. I guess the concept of a 'bubble' goes down easier than trying to explain the collapse of major oil fields like Cantarell, increased domestic energy demand within oil exporters, declining EROEI with heavier crudes and offshore drilling, etc..

Yes the Grand Illusion still lives. Speculators are to be blamed for declining oil output and plunging net imports. Now if we could only find where those nasty speculators are hiding all their oil.

[Revi]

I'm thinking that we may be at a floor, and now things will start to inflate again. India and China are still growing, and they'll absorb any extra oil pretty quickly. The dollar isn't going to stay strong forever. I wonder if we are still deflating or if we have turned the corner into a bit of inflation again? That will push the price of oil up again. Maybe...

[yesplease]

I agree about the floor Revi, it seems that we've hit a lot of resistance around $60/bbl, but I'm pretty sure that the dollar is still historically weak in the eighties compared to it's average of a bit less than a hundred.

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I')'m thinking that we may be at a floor, and now things will start to inflate again. India and China are still growing, and they'll absorb any extra oil pretty quickly. The dollar isn't going to stay strong forever. I wonder if we are still deflating or if we have turned the corner into a bit of inflation again? That will push the price of oil up again. Maybe...

[SuperTico]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I')'m thinking that we may be at a floor, and now things will start to inflate again. India and China are still growing, and they'll absorb any extra oil pretty quickly. The dollar isn't going to stay strong forever. I wonder if we are still deflating or if we have turned the corner into a bit of inflation again? That will push the price of oil up again. Maybe...

[deMolay]

Soros sees no bottom to unprecedented worldwide financial collapse. Likens US collapse to the Russian Collapse. http://www.reuters.com/article/business ... 23&sp=true

[Kristen]

Neither do I, its a bottomless pit were falling down.

[threadbear]

For the first time, I'm actually scared. It's very heartening to read all the preps that people on this forum have made, though. I also really appreciate that most here are reaching out to friends, family. Also, to those reinforcing and vitalizing their local community, if they're in towns or cities--good on you. The next few years are going to test the assumption that material wealth, above and beyond what we actually need, has any merit, whatsoever. Those with anything left will have to help their immediate families and then attend to their friends, extended families and beyond. This is a soul building exercise and like any heavy exercise, it will hurt, but it will be a good hurt.

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'F')or the first time, I'm actually scared.

[Kristen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'F')or the first time, I'm actually scared. It's very heartening to read all the preps that people on this forum have made, though. I also really appreciate that most here are reaching out to friends, family. Also, to those reinforcing and vitalizing their local community, if they're in towns or cities--good on you. The next few years are going to test the assumption that material wealth, above and beyond what we actually need, has any merit, whatsoever. Those with anything left will have to help their immediate families and then attend to their friends, extended families and beyond. This is a soul building exercise and like any heavy exercise, it will hurt, but it will be a good hurt.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'F')or the first time, I'm actually scared.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kristen', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'F')or the first time, I'm actually scared. It's very heartening to read all the preps that people on this forum have made, though. I also really appreciate that most here are reaching out to friends, family. Also, to those reinforcing and vitalizing their local community, if they're in towns or cities--good on you. The next few years are going to test the assumption that material wealth, above and beyond what we actually need, has any merit, whatsoever. Those with anything left will have to help their immediate families and then attend to their friends, extended families and beyond. This is a soul building exercise and like any heavy exercise, it will hurt, but it will be a good hurt.

[deMolay]

I hear you Threadbear. There is a great stirring going on, a sense of something momentous and historic rearing itself. We have one of our grandaughters over for the weekend. She is a wonderful respite from reality being only 4 and completely innocent and unaware of events in the world. At the same time it worries me greatly to think of the future ahead for her and others children. Very sobering indeed. In the 1930's it took 4 years to get to the bottom. I would advise that we do not have 4 years to do trial and error gardening, seed saving and harvesting. By this time next year we may very well be facing Zombies. The crime rate is already starting to rise. Mostly chronic drug users as far as I can tell. But a change none the less in the frequency of home invasions and local break ins when no one is home. I have started looking for a couple of Akbash/Bouvier type farm dogs. My old cow dog is too friendly with people, and I will pension him off, I am becoming more worried about human predators. Also given that my wife is handicapped and I am no spring chicken myself. I have also decided to proceed with building a root cellar/bomb shelter this year. It will have its own water source and air filtration system even if it will be a crude air filtration system. So gardening in earnest and a root cellar are top of my agenda. That and continue with storing of necessities. Worldwide tensions have elevated in many countries. The USA have started training for urban unrest and the like. I think it is fairly obvious what is rapidly approaching.