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PeakOil is You

Reverse Engineer's Explanation of Markets and Investing

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Solutions to Global Monetary System Meltdown

Postby Kristen » Sat 20 Sep 2008, 05:03:17

The problem stems from a materialistic ideology. Look around your surroundings and count the number of Logos present. Its burned in every image of your life in the background somewhere. This is "Branding" The way displays are set up at the cash register are effective sales techniques and are related to the power of suggestion. These are tools companies used in the turn of the century to spread consumerism. It spread like a virus and evolved into the techno abysm of America. People have been programed to buy. Half the news is about the latest device or must have look.

We also are a very immoral nation (In a holistic viewpoint). We buy things made from sweat shops so little Timmy can get the new XPOD 400. We allow experimental and new medications to be advertised on tv by creating a new disease with ambiguous symptoms. If its not FDA approved it shouldn't be shown. Hell, there's even traces of pharacueticals in 48 million homes. (At least I haven't grown a tail) Laws are simply statutes in "the language" and are often complicated and have many loopholes. The list is endless.

If we adopted a anthropocentric liberitarian hollistic viewpoint we would be set. By libertarian I am refering to its basic philosophic meaning: Every x has a right to live as one chooses as long as they don't interfere with others as well. If we all did our part for sake of the population at whole, we might be able to all survive. It's mathematical. How many people and the amount of joules vs calories. Unfortuanetely, with the obesity ecidemic we would still need a lot of calories because overweight people need more calories to perform regular tasks.

I doubt it would happen, but just wanted to throw it out there. There are so many complexities on what's happening on a global scale and individual. Most of the financial jibberish is abstract for most people. They just hustle around texting and driving, everything is normal. In the back of their minds they know the truth but are not ready to grieve.
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Re: Solutions to Global Monetary System Meltdown

Postby mos6507 » Sat 20 Sep 2008, 16:00:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '
')In the event we cannot produce enough food? My plan is to die.


Are you sure you've thought this through? You do realize there are low population zones that DO support agriculture that would probably not be the first on the list for "them" to confiscate?
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Re: Solutions to Global Monetary System Meltdown

Postby ReverseEngineer » Sat 20 Sep 2008, 16:07:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '
')
If the hunters are the deciders what is the point of the elder council? If the military (the hunters) are really in charge, whats the point? Maybe they will just kill the elders if the elders do not distribute the grain the way they like?


In times of plenty the elder council serves to resolve disputes, often between the hunters themselves. The hunters have respect and love for these people, they of course are their parents who raised them. In times of famine, the hunters also wish to insure their tribe survives, and so they often will give more to their starving children then they take for themselves, until it becomes clear if they continue doing this they will be too weak to hunt, at which point they choose the weakest of the children and leave them to die. The elders at this time also die off, only those of procreating age are the last left standing. If they can survive through the famine, they procreate again and the cycle repeats.

If they cannot survive the famine because it goes too long, the result is obvious. They go extinct.

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Re: Solutions to Global Monetary System Meltdown

Postby ReverseEngineer » Sat 20 Sep 2008, 16:34:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '
')In the event we cannot produce enough food? My plan is to die.


Are you sure you've thought this through? You do realize there are low population zones that DO support agriculture that would probably not be the first on the list for "them" to confiscate?


The whole purpose of this debate is to think it through, together with you and the others who are participating in the thread. Its a process that is not concluded yet.

Absolutely, one of the better choices available right now would be to be in a low popultaion zone that supports local agriculture. In a prior thread a while back I mentioned that I identified a few areas around the lower 48 and Canada that rank higher on the Survivability Index scale :-) For instance, if I lived in the Northeast right now and had a Bug Out machine and enough gas to get me there without a refill, I might head for Maine or Vermont or the Shenandoah Valley, but only if I knew some of the locals there. Going there by myself would not be a good idea.

However, although in the age of computers what is occuring on the paper level will transmit itself more rapidly to the general economy than in previous crashes of this type, the industrial agricultural machine won't fail overnight. By centralizing what wealth is left into the hands of the few, they will retain most of the political power and be able to hire the biggest number of Storm Troopers. The Independents out there are always a danger and will be rooted out, their small farms gradually collectivized as well, taken for the greed of the few in a fascist outcome, taken for the needs of the many in a communist outcome.

The main saving grace you have here is that it is becoming increasingly difficult to run a mechanized army and support the logistics. Geography is your FRIEND if you are an independent and wish to try to stay out of the conflict. Remember who stayed neutral in WWII? The Swiss. Why? MOUNTAINS. BIG MOUNTAINS. Even when oil was plentiful, you just could not roll tanks over those mountains. Mechanized armies really only work well on flat land in the river valleys, on the plains and in the deserts.

Anyhow, to my friends the Subsitence Farmers here on the board, I wish you the best of luck with your choice also. I hope your farm is not in Iowa though or in Texas. Flat land still quite easy to roll tanks over for as long as some oil is left and some refineries are left, that is where that product goes to, for a while yet to come. I hope your farm is in a little valley somewhere in Vermont, surrounded on all sides by Mountains. Big Mountains. The Great Wall that God built.

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Re: Solutions to Global Monetary System Meltdown

Postby mrobert » Sat 20 Sep 2008, 20:11:26

@ReverseEngineer: Also, the AIR FORCE has issues rolling their planes over them mountains. I can already hear them: "Let's shoot straight at the elder council and hunt some hunters" :)
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Re: Solutions to Global Monetary System Meltdown

Postby MrBill » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 02:57:52

This thread is so intellectually disingenious that it is pathetic.

RE: Solutions to Global Monetary System Meltdown. First and foremost it started out with a world government developing a new universal world currency called the calorie to facilitate trade. And supposedly some sort of extremely complicated form of measurement, collection, distribution and enforcement mechanism otherwise it would not work in any case. Not that anyone would sign-up to such a system, but at least that was the initial premise.

And now RR has us all living like Eskimos off migrating caribou herds like a remote tribe cut-off from the rest of the world where we revert to hunting and gathering, while letting the old and weak die-off when its convenient.

So in summary, the solution to the global monetary system meltdown is to become subsistance farmers and/or hunter gatherers and live in some pre-industrial, pre-civilized world. Or in other words to experience 95% die-off until the world returns to about 300 million people living worldwide. Not to mention that even at those levels of population density that we had famines and wars between tribes over scarcity.

The cure is worse than the disease. What is a little currency devaluation and inflation compared to 95% die-off and the end of civilzation as we know it? Peak oil is an energy crisis. We need to solve this energy crisis in the context of post peak oil resource depletion and climate change, but we do not need to become hunters and gatherers again. At least that should not be our default option right out of the starting gate. Talk about living in a little boy's fantasyland of adventure instead of seriously considering the economic and environmental problems facing us as a society!
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Re: Solutions to Global Monetary System Meltdown

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 03:46:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'T')alk about living in a little boy's fantasyland of adventure instead of seriously considering the economic and environmental problems facing us as a society!

So what do you think about prospects of US financial system and US currency i light current development.

Will it prevail?

Or may be, what about idea that existing debt will impair our ability to respond to energy crisis and cause economic & societal collapse by the same?
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Re: Solutions to Global Monetary System Meltdown

Postby ReverseEngineer » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 03:55:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrobert', '@')ReverseEngineer: Also, the AIR FORCE has issues rolling their planes over them mountains. I can already hear them: "Let's shoot straight at the elder council and hunt some hunters" :)


AKA "Let's Bomb 'em back to the Stone Age!"

Worked real well in Iraq, now didn't it? At SOME point you actually have to put troops on the ground to take control over the land, and unless you have well supplied troops with mechanized tanks all run on oil, they have no better chance really than the locals do in such a fight.

Anyhow, we have plenty of Pilots up here with Jets, I know two of them who are fathers of children I teach, who I go fishing with also :-) I would highly suggest nobody tries to fly over us and bomb us back to the Stone Age yet. They will be in a Turkey Shoot.

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Re: Solutions to Global Monetary System Meltdown

Postby ReverseEngineer » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 04:05:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', ' ') Talk about living in a little boy's fantasyland of adventure instead of seriously considering the economic and environmental problems facing us as a society!


Why do you find it necessary to pitch out ad hominem insults like this? You know it ticks me off, you just want to get a rise out of me? I wil respond to this one plainly.

The FANTASY here I would say is that if you believe ANYTHING going on in the markets now is REAL, or that Trading as it was done over the last 30 years will continue on with this monetary system, you are sadly mistaken.

Just have to see how it plays out though. Stay tuned for the next Chapter as Ben & Henry rewrite the balance sheets :-)

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Re: Solutions to Global Monetary System Meltdown

Postby vtsnowedin » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 04:20:30

[quote="ReverseEngineer Absolutely, ...... ........ I hope your farm is in a little valley somewhere in Vermont, surrounded on all sides by Mountains. Big Mountains. The Great Wall that God built.

Reverse Engineer[/quote]

AhYup :)
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Re: Solutions to Global Monetary System Meltdown

Postby ReverseEngineer » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 04:24:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '[')quote="ReverseEngineer ] Absolutely, ...... ........ I hope your farm is in a little valley somewhere in Vermont, surrounded on all sides by Mountains. Big Mountains. The Great Wall that God built.

Reverse Engineer


AhYup :)[/quote]

I am glad VT. I hope to see you on the Other Side.

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Re: Solutions to Global Monetary System Meltdown

Postby MrBill » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 04:36:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'T')alk about living in a little boy's fantasyland of adventure instead of seriously considering the economic and environmental problems facing us as a society!

So what do you think about prospects of US financial system and US currency i light current development.

Will it prevail?

Or may be, what about idea that existing debt will impair our ability to respond to energy crisis and cause economic & societal collapse by the same?


I do not under-estimate the economic and environmental challenges that the world collectively faces.

If current account deficits = current account surpluses. If trade deficits = trade surpluses. If balance of payment deficits = balance of payment surpluses. And they do because they always have to balance.

Then the US' $9-10 trillion in debt that it is adding to at a rate of $1-1.3 trillion per year is someone else's savings. A debt default affects both parties. And it does not matter whether the default is in the form of inflation, currency devaluation or some form of rescheduling of repayment of principle and interest the result is that the creditor gets back less than they expected.

That destruction of wealth reduces the amount of capital with which to address other economic and environmental problems such as post peak oil resource depletion and climate change.

The US cannot solve its financial problems by going deeper into debt. That is the cause of its problems in the first place. The recent bailouts that we have seen are merely buying time, but if they are not followed by a significant shift in attitudes and real changes in behavior then they will ultimately fail. Then the US and the world will be that much poorer for their reckless behavior.

Real world. Real world problems. Wealth created to cover financial losses is wealth that is not available for research & development or for building new infrastructure or for transitioning to a new lower carbon future. Societal collapse stemming from economic collapse is the default option. It is caused by not doing anything until it is too late. Or too little too late. That is the road that we are already on. We should not be surprised that it leads us to ruin.
Last edited by MrBill on Mon 22 Sep 2008, 04:53:12, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Solutions to Global Monetary System Meltdown

Postby ReverseEngineer » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 04:50:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'I')f current account deficits = current account surpluses. If trade deficits = trade surpluses. If balance of payment deficits = balance of payment surpluses. And they do because they always have to balance.


On PAPER they always have to balance, but you do have the problem of wrongly valued assets which on the balance sheet are valued one way, but in reality may not have that value anymore.

The obvious example is the Suburban Home, with mortgages and Securities backing them which SAY they are worth $200K apiece, but in fact they are worth NOTHING. Well scrap value I suppose, if you want to ship the stuff out of there.

The debt run up here was far more than the wealth of the world at the moment, it was bet on to be more and the monetary supply increased to reflect that. However, when a few players tried to cash out, they found those sub-prime mortgages had no real value as assets. Ooops.

What was represented on paper was not matching the reality, and once that became evident the whole house of cards began to fall apart. Ever bigger organizations had to write down the bad debt, putting their books in the red. So the US Govt, itself in the red is supposed to take on all this bad debt and pay it back? HOW? Its absurd, it cannot be done.

This failure has been building a LONG time, and really NOTHING could have been done to stop it once the first dominoe fell. So you see here the results of greed. Betting on the future, trading at the expense of another. You LOST. So did the rest of the wolrd unfortunately though.

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Re: Solutions to Global Monetary System Meltdown

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 05:25:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Real world. Real world problems. Wealth created to cover financial losses is wealth that is not available for research & development or for building new infrastructure or for transitioning to a new lower carbon future. Societal collapse stemming from economic collapse is the default option. It is caused by not doing anything until it is too late. Or too little too late. That is the road that we are already on. We should not be surprised that it leads us to ruin.

That is one of your most doomerish statements which I have red.
I am always reading your posts carefully.
Anyway, thanks for your opinion.

My perception of situation is "too little, too late" approach.
Attempts to keep status quo at any cost.
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Re: Solutions to Global Monetary System Meltdown

Postby ReverseEngineer » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 05:39:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Real world. Real world problems. Wealth created to cover financial losses is wealth that is not available for research & development or for building new infrastructure or for transitioning to a new lower carbon future. Societal collapse stemming from economic collapse is the default option. It is caused by not doing anything until it is too late. Or too little too late. That is the road that we are already on. We should not be surprised that it leads us to ruin.

That is one of your most doomerish statements which I have red.
I am always reading your posts carefully.
Anyway, thanks for your opinion.

My perception of situation is "too little, too late" approach.
Attempts to keep status quo at any cost.


Methinks MrBill is grudgingly becoming a Doomer himself. Must have lost a LOT over the last week. I can see why he might be a little testy here ;-)

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Re: Solutions to Global Monetary System Meltdown

Postby wisconsin_cur » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 05:52:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Real world. Real world problems. Wealth created to cover financial losses is wealth that is not available for research & development or for building new infrastructure or for transitioning to a new lower carbon future. Societal collapse stemming from economic collapse is the default option. It is caused by not doing anything until it is too late. Or too little too late. That is the road that we are already on. We should not be surprised that it leads us to ruin.

That is one of your most doomerish statements which I have red.
I am always reading your posts carefully.
Anyway, thanks for your opinion.

My perception of situation is "too little, too late" approach.
Attempts to keep status quo at any cost.


Methinks MrBill is grudgingly becoming a Doomer himself. Must have lost a LOT over the last week. I can see why he might be a little testy here ;-)

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Please do not be condescending.

I note no difference between Mr. B's thinking now and what I have heard him say in since my first weeks here on the board. Perhaps he is saying it more clearly than he has for a while, but that is irrelevant.

If it is "testy" to note that your "solution" is little more than a Clan of the Cave Bear Fantasy then so be it... I have a feeling you will find there are a lot of "testy" people around.
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Re: Solutions to Global Monetary System Meltdown

Postby MrBill » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 06:01:58

I have been at Peak Oil for three years because I recognize the economic and environmental seriousness of post peak oil resource depletion and climate change.

As the value of underlying assets change and the ability to generate new wealth diminishes as we run up against physical reality then purely financial assets become comparatively worth less than hard, physical assets. Although the inability to pay affects demand, and therefore the price, of both types of assets, but just differently.

There is no disconnect between my perception of reality and reality. I am not being swayed by unsound economic or financial arguments. I can see them for what they are. Usually a mixture of linear thinking and discounting feedback loops inherent in the economic system as well as grossly over-simplifying complex systems. Sometimes a little hubris like discounting other people's asset values down to zero economic value, while believing that their own skills and knowledge are worth far more than they are by any sort of objective measure. That is the Internet for you. Everyone has an opinion.
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Re: Solutions to Global Monetary System Meltdown

Postby ReverseEngineer » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 06:03:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '
')If it is "testy" to note that your "solution" is little more than a Clan of the Cave Bear Fantasy then so be it... I have a feeling you will find there are a lot of "testy" people around.


Well, at least I proposed a solution. I don't just go out sniping and naysaying. You have a BETTER solution? This is the thread to post it on. I have not yet read from MrBill a Solution posted, nor from you either. Please post one, I will take my turn at carving it up.

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Re: Solutions to Global Monetary System Meltdown

Postby wisconsin_cur » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 06:11:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '
')If it is "testy" to note that your "solution" is little more than a Clan of the Cave Bear Fantasy then so be it... I have a feeling you will find there are a lot of "testy" people around.


Well, at least I proposed a solution. I don't just go out sniping and naysaying. You have a BETTER solution? This is the thread to post it on. I have not yet read from MrBill a Solution posted, nor from you either. Please post one, I will take my turn at carving it up.

Reverse Engineer


Looking at your posting history this weekend I am going to recommend that you get more sleep. It is difficult to make good judgments when you are not well rested.

If yours is the best answer we have then that is just a long way of saying there are no answers... a position that I am quite comfortable with.
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Re: Solutions to Global Monetary System Meltdown

Postby ReverseEngineer » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 06:26:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '
')Looking at your posting history this weekend I am going to recommend that you get more sleep. It is difficult to make good judgments when you are not well rested.

If yours is the best answer we have then that is just a long way of saying there are no answers... a position that I am quite comfortable with.


I have often been accused of not getting enough sleep when I go on a posting binge :-)

Anyhow, it was a very eventful weekend out there, I got pretty revved up about it all and yes I probably made a few bad judgements and lost my temper a few times. However, I will say that I got condescended on first in this particular devolution, calling my stuff "little boy fantasy" without actually adressing the ideas was pretty low, would you not say?

I'm about ready to call it a night, probably you won't hear from me again until tommorow. Well rested, and ready to take on the new day's events :-)

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