[Leanan]

Has anyone read this book? Sounds intriguing, but it's expensive - $28.00. Author is an archaeologist. The book explores the reasons why every complex society the world has ever seen has collapsed. He argues that the problem is complexity itself. Societies find themselves requiring more and more effort just to maintain that ever-increasing complexity, until they just can't do it any more.

A quote from one of the reviews at Amazon: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n Chapter 4, Tainter musters a massive array of statistics that show that modern society has been facing diminishing returns on investments in complexity. There is a very simple reason for this: we solve the easiest problems first. Take oil, for example. In 1950, spending the energy equivalent of one barrel of oil in searching for more oil yielded 100 barrels in discovered oil. Now, the same investment yields 5. The per-dollar return on R&D investment has dropped for fifty years. In education, additional investments in programs, technology etc. no longer produce increases in outcomes. In short, industrial society is looking at steadily fewer returns on its investments in both non-human and human capital. When a new challenge comes, Tainter argues, society will eventually be unable to muster the necessary resources to deal with the crisis, and will revert-- in a painful and unhappy way-- to a much simpler way of life.

[OilBurner]

Haven't read it, but it sounds interesting.

See also this thread:

http://peakoil.com/fortopic373.html

Skip past my cheap parody at the start to get to the good stuff by EnviroEng and others!

[Leanan]

Thanks for the mini-review. I think I will spring the $28 and buy a copy. (Even used copies are expensive - $25. I figure I might as well get it new, and get Amazon's free shipping.)

[PhilBiker]

I'm halfway through the first chapter. Too early to tell if I will like it but I'm sure it will scare me good. There are so many things converging right now, the diminishing returns, general resource depletion, etc. It's hopeless.

[Dr. Kauffman]

That is a very good book! It is a real eye opener. I have this book in my library and yes I think much of what is written is solid and true. A good read worth the money. You'll use it and refer to it often> Dr K

[OilBurner]

Thanks Dr K..... or should we say Leaf!!!

Don't kid a kidder!

[Leanan]

It occurs to me, as I read my way through Tainter's book, that the issue we are all concerned about here, peak oil, is something of a textbook example of what causes complex societies to collapse.

No, not resource depletion. Though resource depletion and other ecological issues are often blamed for the collapse of various civilizations, Tainter argues that it's not the root of cause. After all, one of the purposes of a complex society is to solve problems like resource depletion. Why does it fail to do so?

Complex societies are marked by, among other things, an increased amount of information flow. It gets harder and harder to keep track of it all, and to determine what's important and what isn't. We see that happening right now, with the investigation into the 9/11 intelligence failures. We had all the pieces, but couldn't put them together in time. And because of the way complex societies are set up, even if someone does put the pieces together, they may not be able to do anything about it. At least two of our intelligence agents are now vindicated in their suspicions...too late. Even if someone important "gets it," he can't necessarily do anything. Osama bin Laden was a big priority for the Clinton administration, but Clinton could not convince Congress (who thought he was trying to "wag the dog") or the Bush administration (who weren't interested in foreign policy at the time) of the threat.

We wonder why ancient, collapsed civilizations didn't do something about whatever threat did them in (military, ecological, whatever). They were likely in our place once. Not able to tell the real threats from the bogus ones in the flood of information. And those who did "get it" were unable to fix the impending disaster on their own, or convince others of the danger, amid so much other information.

With complex societies comes specialization. People who know a lot about a little. So most of the population ends up being unable to properly judge the various threats facing us. Is global warming a bigger danger than terrorist attack or peak oil? Very few of us have the education to make an informed decision.

If we'd taken the warning we got in the '70s to heart, we could have weaned ourselves off oil by now, or at least have done a lot to make the crash a soft landing. If Jimmy Carter had been king, we'd have done it. But Jimmy Carter wasn't king, he was president. And when he was gone, so were his solar panels. The perils of complexity...

[PhilBiker]

Yes.

[EnviroEngr]

Pt.1 of 2.

http://peakoil.com/fortopic822.html

[EnviroEngr]

Pt.2 of 2

http://peakoil.com/fortopic822.html

[Barbara]

That's why I believe this so-called "democracy" is not working anymore.

[mainster]

Even Plato said democracy doesn't work. As I recall he was in favor of something like an informed benevolent dictator of sorts.

If you free your mid and really think hard about democracy you realize that it is true and logical. Democracy can never work for humans as long as we are ruled primarily by our "selfish genes" (Dawkins). Since all life is based on selfish genes it seems life and democracy are at odds...

Read G.Hardin's "Tragedy of Commons" for another perspective on this matter. Why we seem doomed to destroy the commons no matter what we do.

Opinions?

[Guest]

I am not sure where your info came from. Osama was offered to Clinton who did NOTHING.

[KiddieKorral]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anonymous', 'I') am not sure where your info came from. Osama was offered to Clinton who did NOTHING.

[Atr0p0s]

Well, I am sure you are all fans of Malthus. According to him, everything happening to us right now fits the mold of overshoot and collapse. Selfish genes are favored by natural selection, and birth control in modern societies has failed miserably. Thus, we will grow and consume until there are too many of us and one essential resource gives out. In some environments it is oxygen, it others it is water, in others it is nutrition or sunlight. For us it will probably be all of the above.

[PhilBiker]

Actually for us it will be fossil fuels.

And I join in recommending "Tragedy of the Commons". Disturbing and enlightening, it should be required reading.

[EnviroEngr]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mainster', 'E')ven Plato said democracy doesn't work. As I recall he was in favor of something like an informed benevolent dictator of sorts.

If you free your mid and really think hard about democracy you realize that it is true and logical. Democracy can never work for humans as long as we are ruled primarily by our "selfish genes" (Dawkins). Since all life is based on selfish genes it seems life and democracy are at odds...

Read G.Hardin's "Tragedy of Commons" for another perspective on this matter. Why we seem doomed to destroy the commons no matter what we do.

Opinions?

[julianj]

The Collapse of Complex Societies

by

Joseph A. Tainter

Cambridge University Press 1988

Summary:

Tainter examines 2000 years of explanations for the collapse of complex societies (i.e. city dwelling, complex-technology using, specialisation of roles). He rejects the theories to date as simplistic and postulates his own, that complex societies reach a point where their complexity produces diminishing returns and they contract, resulting in simpler societies. This is a dry book, so in the spirit of The Guardian newspaper, I’m going to condense it so you don’t have to read it.

Review:

I originally read this a few years ago – before I’d heard of Peak Oil – because I couldn’t resist the title, so I ordered it from the library, living as I do in a complex society which has specialist personnel such as librarians.

As it is aimed at an academic audience it is very dry. I didn’t think you could make the collapse of civilisation boring, but Tainter can. That said, it is a classic.

First Tainter examines the many theories of civilisation collapse: he finds them wanting. I won’t go into this in depth but none of the reasons put forward including intruding enemies, natural disasters, incompetent rulers, resource depletion, class conflict, “cycles of civilisation and barbarismâ€

[Guest]

Yes, Tainter's writing style is dry, but it is nevertheless a brilliant book. Another one that I may recommend is "The Green History of the World" by Clive Ponting.