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US$ back over 80 - a one-year high

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US$ back over 80 - a one-year high

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 13:14:51

WTF?

Did every other country adopt a GSE this weekend as well? The US dollar keeps rallying on...

link
Last edited by emersonbiggins on Thu 11 Sep 2008, 15:02:37, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: US$ almost back up to 80 - near a one-year high

Unread postby threadbear » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 14:25:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'W')TF?

Did every other country adopt a GSE this weekend as well? The US dollar keeps rallying on...

link


Coordinated international effort. Absolutely no doubt. Interesting to see if it holds. Also interesting to see how it ties the hands of the US govt, as far as military intrusion and interference goes. Major strings attached, I would think.
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Re: US$ almost back up to 80 - near a one-year high

Unread postby Snowstorm » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 15:33:42

Elections are two months away.
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Re: US$ almost back up to 80 - near a one-year high

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 16:35:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'W')TF?

Did every other country adopt a GSE this weekend as well? The US dollar keeps rallying on...

link


Coordinated international effort. Absolutely no doubt. Interesting to see if it holds. Also interesting to see how it ties the hands of the US govt, as far as military intrusion and interference goes. Major strings attached, I would think.


That's just paranoia talking (in this particular instance).

The Dollar rallied because the fear premium declined. Investors were afraid that a collapse of F&F would catch the US government off guard and unable to deal with the crisis.

By taking proactive steps, they theoretically reduced the potential damage of a F&F collapse as well as removing the uncertainty about when the next shoe will drop.

The dollar rallied in the early morning, leveled out by mid-morning, made a big run upwards at lunch time, and then retreated back to its starting position by the early afternoon.

I'm a lot more interested how the rest of the week is going to play out.

If we end the week in positive territory, I'll be very surprised.
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Re: US$ almost back up to 80 - near a one-year high

Unread postby firestarter » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 16:44:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'W')TF?

Did every other country adopt a GSE this weekend as well? The US dollar keeps rallying on...

link


Coordinated international effort. Absolutely no doubt. Interesting to see if it holds. Also interesting to see how it ties the hands of the US govt, as far as military intrusion and interference goes. Major strings attached, I would think.


That's just paranoia talking (in this particular instance).

The Dollar rallied because the fear premium declined. Investors were afraid that a collapse of F&F would catch the US government off guard and unable to deal with the crisis.

By taking proactive steps, they theoretically reduced the potential damage of a F&F collapse as well as removing the uncertainty about when the next shoe will drop.

The dollar rallied in the early morning, leveled out by mid-morning, made a big run upwards at lunch time, and then retreated back to its starting position by the early afternoon.

I'm a lot more interested how the rest of the week is going to play out.

If we end the week in positive territory, I'll be very surprised.



Positive steps? You're joking, right?

The dollar being up today has several plausible explanations, one of which is more hedge fund unwindings. This explanation is more consistent with GLD , oil and TNX all falling in concert today. FYI, it's called de-leveraging.

Odd currency moves were also impacted by short covering. Give it a few weeks, then we can tell if this is a trend or merely a blip on the radar.
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Re: US$ almost back up to 80 - near a one-year high

Unread postby smiley » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 16:51:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')oordinated international effort. Absolutely no doubt.


Could be that they gave the markets a nudge.

But also have to remember that there are a lot of people out there that believe this is the miracle cure. I have several friends that are convinced that a recession is when you run out of banknote paper and printing ink. I'm sure that they are putting money in dollar denominated assets at this moment.

The fact that there is a real economy out there that is suffering completely passes them. Which is not surprising since their only interaction with this world is by looking out the windows of their 8.04 commute from Suburbia to Downtown.

And to be honest. If you look at this from a bank prespective, this deal couldn't be sweeter. You can sell a mortgage to any bumb that is dumb enough to get way over his head in debt, and not run any risk. This round is on Uncle Sam.

Sure enough this is a pig in a golden wrapping if you ask me. But for the moment it looks nice and shiny.
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Re: US$ almost back up to 80 - near a one-year high

Unread postby threadbear » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 16:58:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'W')TF?

Did every other country adopt a GSE this weekend as well? The US dollar keeps rallying on...

link


Coordinated international effort. Absolutely no doubt. Interesting to see if it holds. Also interesting to see how it ties the hands of the US govt, as far as military intrusion and interference goes. Major strings attached, I would think.


That's just paranoia talking (in this particular instance).

The Dollar rallied because the fear premium declined. Investors were afraid that a collapse of F&F would catch the US government off guard and unable to deal with the crisis.

By taking proactive steps, they theoretically reduced the potential damage of a F&F collapse as well as removing the uncertainty about when the next shoe will drop.

The dollar rallied in the early morning, leveled out by mid-morning, made a big run upwards at lunch time, and then retreated back to its starting position by the early afternoon.

I'm a lot more interested how the rest of the week is going to play out.

If we end the week in positive territory, I'll be very surprised.


None of what you describe would have happened if the international community hadn't issued assuring approvals and synchronized their own reactions, behind the scenes. F&F may be too big to fail, but the US is REALLY too big to fail, at this juncture, obviously. This could change with events in Georgia. If the US keeps pushing it's weight around, particularly if it's deeds are seen to impact China, you are going to see them react. I give it a few months. Things will likely remain flat until the election.
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Re: US$ almost back up to 80 - near a one-year high

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Thu 11 Sep 2008, 15:00:20

80 finally breached; now a one-year high. Now at 80.156 and bouncing around.

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Re: US$ back over 80 - a one-year high

Unread postby firestarter » Thu 11 Sep 2008, 15:06:03

Sets up perfectly for a rate cut by Tuesday.
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Re: US$ back over 80 - a one-year high

Unread postby threadbear » Thu 11 Sep 2008, 15:10:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('firestarter', 'S')ets up perfectly for a rate cut by Tuesday.


Now THAT would be interesting.
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Re: US$ back over 80 - a one-year high

Unread postby firestarter » Thu 11 Sep 2008, 15:13:36

50, perhaps 100 basis points to boot.
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Re: US$ back over 80 - a one-year high

Unread postby threadbear » Thu 11 Sep 2008, 15:47:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('firestarter', '5')0, perhaps 100 basis points to boot.


Do you think that will scare some money back into the stock market?
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Re: US$ back over 80 - a one-year high

Unread postby firestarter » Thu 11 Sep 2008, 15:59:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('firestarter', '5')0, perhaps 100 basis points to boot.


Do you think that will scare some money back into the stock market?


Yes, but not for nearly as long as the preceding cuts.

BTW, much depends on the engineered take down of WaMu and LEH this weekend. If that goes over well perhaps the Fed keeps its powder dry. If not, then........
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Re: US$ back over 80 - a one-year high

Unread postby threadbear » Thu 11 Sep 2008, 16:45:51

Firestarter, Would you buy PM's at this juncture, or do you think they have a long way to go yet, or will tomorrow help tell the tale.
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Re: US$ almost back up to 80 - near a one-year high

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Thu 11 Sep 2008, 17:02:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'C')oordinated international effort. Absolutely no doubt. Interesting to see if it holds. Also interesting to see how it ties the hands of the US govt, as far as military intrusion and interference goes. Major strings attached, I would think.


I'm usually the first one out in front trying to slay the conspiracy theory, but I'm starting to wonder if there's not some truth in this one. Six months ago the entire economy was going to crap. Now just before the elections the dollar decides to magically rise like Lazarus from the dead. Down come all the commodity prices and everything looks rosy.

I can't see where anything else has changed for the positive. The fed just took on $15 trillion worth of shady mortgage debt. Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual both look like good bets to go bankrupt this week. There's a big hurricane aimed right at Houston. And yet, gold's down, silver's down, oil's down. Wall Street is a veritable chorus of Mary Poppins songs. I'm starting to think that this is serious manipulation and that about December the days of the zombie dollar are going to come to an abrupt end and the S is going to resume H'ing TF in a big way.
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Re: US$ back over 80 - a one-year high

Unread postby firestarter » Thu 11 Sep 2008, 18:19:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'F')irestarter, Would you buy PM's at this juncture, or do you think they have a long way to go yet, or will tomorrow help tell the tale.


Looks like the rumor now is that the Fed and Treasury is pulling a BSC with Lehman. If true, then I might buy GLD as soon as tomorrow.

There's also chatter that FDIC is in the process of closing down WaMu.

I think it's entirely possible that the dollar has topped here, and is on its way back down. Perhaps significantly so. Ditto for oil, only I think it might have bottomed, and is on the way up, perhaps a lot.
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Re: US$ back over 80 - a one-year high

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 17 Sep 2008, 23:34:51

Interesting chart. Yes, the dollar has surged since mid-July.
LINK

Longer-term trend.
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Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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