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Hello Pt 5

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Re: Hello, sorry not my first post.

Postby MonexFRAUD » Wed 03 Sep 2008, 20:10:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonexFRAUD', 'I')'ve been trading for 5 years, mostly options and currencies, but also a little bit of oil, rice, and silver futures...

I'm done trading the markets for good. I would invest (buy and hold) if I think something is a good value but no more trading and definitely no more leverage. It's not worth it.


Were you able to take advantage of the recent commodity run-up (and fall?). Or the fall of the US Dollar? The whole time it was happening, I was imagining all those guys in the boiler rooms churning and burning corn futures, oil contracts and the dollar. It must have been something to see. They must have all been making lots of easy money.

From a commodity broker's perspective (stepping away from ethical considerations), his pitch can sometimes feel magical, like some kind of excalibur sword. And other brokers will comment that so-and-so is hot, and they will adopt the same pitch. So these pitches get traded around a lot in the bull pens like really good jokes, or like potential salvation if a broker is desperate for business.

And then other times, a formerly successful broker will fall into a bad slump where nothing he does or says seems to work. It's like he has suddenly fallen out of favor with Satan temporarily :lol:.

It's weird how one person can say a particular pitch, and the marks just fall down like dominoes. While others try it, but the customers are left cold. When your pitch is hot, it really does feel like a hypnosis trick. When your pitch is cold, you just feel like a bad actor.

And in times of big commodity run-ups, the immense greed out there means that pretty much every broker's pitch is working. So it's a magical time in the boiler rooms. And the coke flows. The chicks are hot. And the parties on the yachts out in the harbor feature a lot of X.


I lost money even when I was right. My execution was sh*t.

I can only imagine how good things are when we have an inflationary period like we just had. This drop I think signals the end of that bull market, although most would tend to disagree with me, that further supports my theory.

When that vicious drop hit two weeks ago, my traffic at monexfraud.com went through the roof. I knew it would happen because any poor suckers that were trading with Monex were being totally raped at the time. I know a guy that lost over $200k with Monex off that drop. Margin calls galore! So many people and so few stop losses in place. It's really disgusting when you think about it. It's my belief that Monex knew it was coming, Terry Parsons told me before I left that he was planning to short the metals. I believe Monex let it's customers get crushed intentionally. I don't believe, based on my research that Monex hedges customer trades in the futures markets. I believe they trade against their clients and then manipulate them into losing trades whenever the client has a different idea. Then the "market" (Monex) keeps the money.
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Re: Hello, sorry not my first post.

Postby Carlhole » Wed 03 Sep 2008, 22:31:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonexFRAUD', 'I')t's my belief that Monex knew it was coming, Terry Parsons told me before I left that he was planning to short the metals. I believe Monex let it's customers get crushed intentionally. I don't believe, based on my research that Monex hedges customer trades in the futures markets. I believe they trade against their clients and then manipulate them into losing trades whenever the client has a different idea. Then the "market" (Monex) keeps the money.


They might have had some idea that the market was overbought and unsustainable but that wouldn't cause them to change their pitch (or working formula).

It's really all about the pitch. First, you pitch on the radio or TV where you develop a "sure thing" scenario in the listener's mind. On some audience, greed takes over and causes them to dial the phone number that is being repeated over and over again.

Many of the clients that call in are quick-screened by someone who can size them up. The good ones are immediately turned over to the proven operators. The questionable or small ones are turned over to brokers who are aren't as skilled at pressuring customers and banging down deals. And believe me, it's possible to pressure someone - even over the phone.

It's great when the market is confirming the most appealing pitch that brokers are hyping on the radio or TV. But, if the market should not confirm the pitch, that doesn't mean that the pitch is not still effective. It's whatever makes the phone ring - that's the most important thing.

The masses are stupid and they are constantly preyed upon. When I was a broker, it seemed like every truck-driving would-be market wizard had an uncle who made a fortune in silver when the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the market. It didn't matter that the fundamentals in the silver market were completely different than in the days of the Hunts; they expected it to happen all over again just because they heard a cool story on the radio.

So Monex probably does not get all that sophisticated with fading their own clients' investments. They're most likely sticking to a pitch that works, even if that pitch is dead wrong. As we all know, in big run-ups in the markets, it's always at the very top of the price move that the MOST little people decide to jump in. This is because they are responding to the frenzy - because they don't think for themselves.

When the market for a commodity is low, usually it looks like a loser; it looks like there is a glut of that commodity. So people don't buy in then. They wait til it looks like a winner - at which time the market has already moved. So it is only the smart, independent thinkers that are on top of things well enough to know the difference between "cheap" and "dog".

If you listen to brokers, you are only hearing a pitch - which may or may not have anything to do with the actual market. Brokers pitch what people respond to; they only want to make the phone ring.

The way I see it, they take advantage of other people's greed and then use a hypnotic message to pull them in. Once a customer has sent them a check, that customer becomes a much more willing victim (99% of the time) and will often do further trades.
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Re: Hello, sorry not my first post.

Postby MonexFRAUD » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 01:04:47

It's interesting to hear this from the perspective of an insider. I consider this information very valuable, at least for the sake of learning a lesson from someone that knows. I will probably refer people to this thread for an explanation on what happens with boiler rooms like Monex. I think if more people could read this thread they might be a little better equipped to repel these kinds of sales pitches.

To my own credit, they only got me for one trade. I removed the remainder of my account even though I was being pitched by Terry Parsons to "make my money back". I know from painful experience that you can always chase losses with more losses, and that usually it's better to quit while you're behind than to wait until you're completely wiped out.

The public may be fools, but I still don't understand how anyone can look themselves in the mirror knowing they are steeling their lifestyle from honest people. I only got nailed because I was unaware that such businesses/scams even existed. Especially ones with 60 second spots on CNN Headline News! They've got a big building and it looks very professional, what else would a person think?

I always traded on my own so this was the first experience I ever had with a broker!

So yeah, maybe I was a fool for not having known better, but can I really be blamed when the company in question is sponsored by outlets like CNN and Google? Who the hell checks the BBB first anyway? Does anybody? Why doesn't CNN put out a news flash about Monex being sued by the Federal Government? Is the ad money that good, or are they so bad at real journalism that they don't even know what's going on?
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Re: Hello, sorry not my first post.

Postby Carlhole » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 02:24:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonexFRAUD', 'I')t's interesting to hear this from the perspective of an insider. I consider this information very valuable, at least for the sake of learning a lesson from someone that knows. I will probably refer people to this thread for an explanation on what happens with boiler rooms like Monex. I think if more people could read this thread they might be a little better equipped to repel these kinds of sales pitches.


You should try it! Find out for yourself! You could learn everything you need to know in about 2 months.

They'll hire almost anybody. But you DO need to be smart enough to pass a test. All you need to do is find some outfit that will "sponsor" you as you study and pass the Series-3 Commodity Futures and Options Exam. You can't just take it by yourself. You have to have a firm sponsor you.

When I started out, I cold-called for other brokers until I passed the Series-3. That was actually at The Sage Group in Irvine. It was located in that tall, cylindrical high-rise building in Irvine, if you happen to know the one. The Sage Group did a regular TV spot and Bruce Serra and a partner (can't remember his name) was the guy who actually did the show. Sometimes the phones went crazy with action. But there still weren't enough really good quality leads to go around so most of the brokers there were cold-calling retreads over and over again. Monotonous. It's the most boring work you can possibly imagine. You can easily go broke too trying to become a successful broker. But a firm won't pay anything. Other brokers might pay you a little to cold-call for them. But the dwindling of savings reserves and ever-present threat of poverty
made for very aggressive brokers who would do anything to churn some commission out of their "book". which usually didn't amount to a whole lot.

A decent commodity broker could make a nice living for himself on a book of clients that totaled at least $100,000 - $200,000 in the market at any one time. You would be living pretty well on the commissions generated from that. By "decent broker", I mean someone who has got a book of very wealthy clients who can all afford to play the commodity markets and who do so for fun. A decent broker would be someone that makes the game fun for these rich guys. Obviously, the broker does not want to ruin his relationship with these guys so he tried not to abuse them terribly. Rich people who play commodities know from experience that you lose, lose, lose, lose , lose...WIN!! and when you win, you win big. But you have to be able to stand all the losses.

A decent broker is nothing more than a glorified croupier. He will call his book of rich clients with trades that he knows they will find interesting. As an established broker, he has a bank account with a little padding and doesn't have to worry about daily living expenses.

But, how many rich people are out there in this world with tons of money to burn? Not many. And it's hard as hell to find them.

However, there are plenty of people hungry enough to go out and get a Series-3 License. This means that they will most likely make their bread-and-butter on people who really should not be involved in the commodity markets as speculators in the first place. And these brokers will be forced to churn and burn for commissions as soon as possible because they've got bills that are mounting up and they need good drugs to calm the nerves.

Once, I remember, I had collected some money, a good sizeable chunk. In fact, the manager noticed and told me, "I'm high on you!". But I was trying to be careful how I sunk it in the market. I was waiting for a clear bottom signal or some shit. I can't remember what it was I was doing. Anyway, I had this same manager come over while I was on the phone with a client. He was yelling at me in an abrasive, thick New York accent: "Make a f*cking trade! Make a f*cking trade! You don't make any f*cking trades, you're outta here today!"

I was a little bit of a tinkerbell back then. Until then, I had thought I was supposed to actually try to make money for clients. Imagine my surprise.

Contrast that with the brokers at Merrill Lynch. In the office where I worked, if you had a "book" with total assets of $30 million, you would make a salary of $20,000 - 30,000 per year. The successful brokers in that office had books upwards of $100 million. This is because the portfolio turnover rate was so low. Most of their clients were elderly retired.
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Re: Hello, sorry not my first post.

Postby MonexFRAUD » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 04:13:32

Passing written tests wouldn't be a problem for me, I have a 140 IQ. Passing the sociopath test is where I would fail. I can't steer people wrong for my own gain. people that do should be shot. I will never compromise on that. So obviously I would not make it as the kind of broker that a boiler room outfit would hire. I would be even more conservative with other people's money than I would be with my own. I'd probably spend all my time researching fundamentals and making lists of value buys and telling people the stuff I thought was safest and most rewarding. I couldn't run a line of B.S. on somebody and convince them of something just because it was part of some weather worn pitch I had.

My real area of expertise is web development and marketing. I hate trading, it's way too stressful. Too many ups and downs (mostly downs). Nobody can predict direction, as far as I'm concerned, at least not consistently enough to make a living. I've won 4 or 5 trades in a row and had one loser wipe the previous trades winnings out and then some. Might as well learn to be an expert Blackjack player, statistically it's not much different.
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Hello Pt 5

Postby Cashmere » Tue 09 Sep 2008, 20:08:39

He's referring to his first post:

First Post

Hell, even Aaron came in and sprayed some Troll-B-Gone, and that's sayin' somethin'!

OP seems to be asking how to not read the site.
Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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Re: I read my reviews

Postby HEADER_RACK » Tue 09 Sep 2008, 20:36:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'H')e's referring to his first post:

First Post

Hell, even Aaron came in and sprayed some Troll-B-Gone, and that's sayin' somethin'!

OP seems to be asking how to not read the site.


That was some funny reading!!!! As for as not reading the site well the best idea I can come up with is DON'T VISIT THIS SITE!!!!
but I understand PO.com is like a bad drug that you can't get enough of.
So keep visiting Topfuel and please keep posting. you are very entertaining.
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Re: I read my reviews

Postby threadbear » Tue 09 Sep 2008, 21:25:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('topfuel', 'C')an some tell me how to get blocked off this site


Would you like the thread deleted, Topfuel? For what it's worth, I'm sure many people read your post and appreciated it. You were polite and civil and didn't deserve the kind of response that you got.
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Re: I read my reviews

Postby TheDude » Tue 09 Sep 2008, 21:40:56

If you really believe petroleum is being created deep in the Earth you could read our enormous thread on Abiotic oil. Some well formulated arguments along with the derision you'll receive for discussing it now, since we've read volumes on the subject and concluded that even if it proved valid (really hasn't) it wouldn't affect the situation we're in at the moment.
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
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Hi all.

Postby weirdo8778 » Wed 10 Sep 2008, 02:22:50

My name is chris and I had another account by weirdo but dont remember what email that went to so i had to start a new one. I have not posted here in over 2 years. I think i have alot to contribute to this community and interesting ideas.

I live in the twin cities of minnesota and am 21 years old. i work in a pharmacy. What else is there about me? Im worried about the future but I love the lifestyle i have right now. I always wonder how the future will play out and i dont like predicting because if i were to predict based off the forums here the industrial society would of been finished almost every year since 2005. It always next year society is going to have a complete meltdown. I think it will happen eventually but i think society is a little more resilient than many on this forum believe.
Last edited by weirdo8778 on Wed 10 Sep 2008, 02:27:25, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Hi all.

Postby wisconsin_cur » Wed 10 Sep 2008, 02:26:11

Welcome back!
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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Re: Hi all.

Postby Ferretlover » Wed 10 Sep 2008, 07:40:09

Welcome back to PeakOil.com, weirdo8778. A lot has changed in two years, and much of it is archived here. Please read as much as you can, and be sure to check out the "How to get around this site without losing your mind" thread in the Welcome forum.
To find topics of interest, please use the 'Search' function; if you have questions, feel free to ask any Moderator.
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First Post

Postby la2al2tex » Mon 15 Sep 2008, 20:14:52

Other than a few years in Alabama, I've lived in the two greatest oil producting States, Texas and Louisiana.
I've trolled the site for a couple of years...my family and most of my co-workers think I'm overreacting, because of course everything will work out ":lol:".
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Re: First Post

Postby la2al2tex » Mon 15 Sep 2008, 20:24:12

Thanks! That's quite a Vader you have.
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Hello from New York

Postby karras » Wed 17 Sep 2008, 02:14:21

Hey everyone! I am an urban planner by training, but have been increasingly interested in peak oil over the past few years. I just finished a Masters in Community and Regional Planning from UT-Austin. I recently moved to The Village in Manhattan from San Antonio, Texas. Very different living in the most urban setting in the US, coming from one of the most suburban.

The funny thing is that the biggest difference I expected was the physical nature of my day-to-day life changing- walking, not driving, public transit, street life, etc. But the thing I have enjoyed the most is the human interactions and the higher percentage of educated people and different backgrounds here in NY.

As a final note, my financial situation is tough as I am still in the job searching process in this "fundamentally sound" economy.

One more thing, a brief comment on the recent drop in crude prices:

Many people are now claiming that the Peak Oilers are a bunch of fear-mongerers, since oil is now trading at $90 and will surely go down farther, possibly even to $20 or $30 a barrel.

The fact is that world discovery of oil peaked in 1964. Each year we produce and consume more and more, while finding less and less. Also, it takes more and more energy to extract a barrel of oil these days, leading to a downward trajectory on the net energy. Do a Google search on EROEI (Energy Return on Energy Invested).

Yes, in some places the actual cost of producing a barrel of oil is still very low, maybe $10 or $20 a barrel. But with world demand increasing and the production of the old super-giant fields like Cantarell and the North Sea declining, more oil has to come from unconventional crude to satisfy the ever increasing demand. And all of this unconventional crude (deepwater, tar sands) costs a lot more to produce and uses much more energy than $10 a barrel. Some of the newer tar sand production in Canada, for instance, is not profitable below $70 or $80 a barrel.

So, the price of oil cannot go down much more, or we will not have enough oil to satisfy demand. Of course, fluctuations in price are to be expected as demand and supply are constantly adjusting relative to each other.
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Re: Hello from New York

Postby wisconsin_cur » Wed 17 Sep 2008, 02:32:53

well let me be the first to offer a hearty "welcome." If you have any questions about the structure or the site, or any other questions for that matter, please feel free to ask.

cur
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Re: Hello from New York

Postby karras » Wed 17 Sep 2008, 02:36:30

Thanks! I look forward to joining the discussion.
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Re: Hello from New York

Postby coyote » Wed 17 Sep 2008, 03:28:33

Welcome karras. Nice first post.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('karras', 'M')any people are now claiming that the Peak Oilers are a bunch of fear-mongerers, since oil is now trading at $90 and will surely go down farther

I think the world will look back at this year as, among other things, the first of the wide price volatility swings. That means down as well as up of course - two sides of the same phenomenon.

I can't wait to see what the next one's like.

And the one after that...
Lord, here comes the flood
We'll say goodbye to flesh and blood
If again the seas are silent in any still alive
It'll be those who gave their island to survive...
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Re: Hello from New York

Postby Consensi » Wed 17 Sep 2008, 11:10:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('karras', 'I') recently moved to The Village in Manhattan from San Antonio, Texas. Very different living in the most urban setting in the US, coming from one of the most suburban.


Whatever attracted you to NYC you will find in abundance. I lived on the UWS of Manhattan for seven years and loved every day of it. Take the 1 train up to Broadway in the 70's block area for some of the best delis in the world (Zabars, Fairway). I stayed away from the East Village as it is full of political radicals and insurrectionists. The West Village around the NYU campus is more laid back.

I currently live in central Georgia and miss the food up there. If you brought your car and plan to stay in the City for a few years then get rid of it. You won't need it and it will become a big pain, as by law, you will have to get up early every morning to move it. Good luck and enjoy NYC.
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Re: Hello from New York

Postby Ferretlover » Wed 17 Sep 2008, 11:17:45

Welcome to PeakOil.com, Karras. :)
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