[Specop_007]

Some of you sound like a sewing circle thats run out of yarn.
Seriously. For the past 4 months or so all I've seen is "Next week it all comes down!". And next week comes.. "Next week it all comes down!".. And next week comes..."Next month it all comes down!".

Well, it hasnt. Its not going to. What your seeing is some major players taking major losses from majorly poor decisions, but the world isnt going to end and the markets arent going to die. I said WaMu would run strong and buy at 4 2 months ago when everything though they were dead. I said last week Wamu would hold strong. I also said Monday wouldnt be the meltdown of the markets.

Monday saw a 4% drop. 4%. Thats less then eye brow raising. 4% and you guys think the world is ending. I have to assume most of you were investing in the late 80's nor have researched it when the DOW dropped over 20% in ONE day. THAT is a pucker factor moment. THAT is when you say "We have a problem". 4% is not a problem.

I said it in another thread. In the past 8 months I've more then doubled my money. Everyone else is screaming pack up and run, I say buy the fear and sell the euphoria and theres a few people who are making a lot of money doing just that. Its not for the faint of heart and its not for the passive investor.

The markets wont meltdown today, tomorrow, next week or next month. Please stop with the doomer "Its all over!" and think rationally and conservatively. If your a long term investor, smile and smile big. This is an excellent investment period. So you have 2 choices, as I posted elsewhere.

So, you have 2 choices. You can listen to your friends and listen to the media....


Or you can watch it closely and do a bit of research and forge your own trail........


Heres hoping I dont lose everything over the course of this week.


My 2 cents. Now GO out there and take the money thats YOURS. Do some research, make smart moves, take bets in your favor and TAKE the money thats waiting for you, thats ASKING you to take it!

[Carlhole]

It's really NOT going to all come a-tumbling down. There is plenty of energy in the system to drive basic economic functions.

Financial issues are intangibles that are easier to adapt to than basic scarcities. We will see a significant correction in the markets.

[Jotapay]

A lot of people are losing their jobs. The sky is falling for them.

[Specop_007]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', 'A') lot of people are losing their jobs. The sky is falling for them.

[burtonridr]

I doubt it will come crashing down over the course of one week, its more likely going to take months to years. Its more like a long line of dominoes, not a deck of cards where one card gets pulled and the whole house falls. Its a large domino affect, it takes awhile, but they are already knocking each other over one at a time. Kinda shitty because I have no idea how I can support my family if I loose my job, still trying to figure that one out, but I'm sure something will present itself

[AlexdeLarge]

No, the sky is not falling............but the DOW sure is! LOL

Yeah, the central banks will get together and stabilize the system. Octobers Earning season is on the way and it will show losses across the board so the long term trend is down. DOW 8000 by spring.

The fed and other central banks are putting bandaids on the system to buy time for the slow burn off.

Only two things you can do with all the bad debt that is out there.........service it or bankrupt it. We are heading into a protracted recession and those who are in debt will get burned.

[ColossalContrarian]

A lot of people are about to lose their retirements.

No, not the end of the world for you or me but..... ha, it's all fun and games until someone gets hurt.

[jdmartin]

I don't think the world's coming to an end, but neither do I think the future's so bright I gotta wear shades.

Mostly I ignore the Dow - there's 30 stocks on the Dow. One really bad mover or really good mover can skew the results pretty heavily, not to mention the fact that the Dow replaces poor performers with good performers, thus stacking the deck anyway (some would say illustrating the new reality). The S&P 500 is a better gauge of the overall stock market.

No question you can make some money if you know what you're doing. Or lose a bundle of it if you don't. Or lose a bundle of it even if you do know what you're doing. The stock market is/has become legalized gambling, plain and simple. Unless you hold stock with the expectation of 20-30 years of growth and development of the company, you're taking positions based on days/weeks/months that allows you to pocket a bundle at the expense of someone who took a bath.

Increasingly you're seeing US stocks take a bath because capital continues to move out of the US market and into other markets. Unless you fire up the presses and no one notices/cares, there's only X amount of currency to go around. If the Chinese get wealthier, we must get poorer - it's that simple (assuming finite resources). And that's what's happening.

I think what we're seeing is a ratcheting effect. Things will take a major crap, come back up a little bit but not as high as before, take another major crap, and so on.

[Specop_007]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ColossalContrarian', 'A') lot of people are about to lose their retirements. No, not the end of the world for you or me but..... ha, it's all fun and games until someone gets hurt.

[smallpoxgirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', 'S')o, you have 2 choices. You can listen to your friends and listen to the media. Or you can watch it closely and do a bit of research and forge your own trail.

[Oil_be_alroit]

I think Specop_007 certainly has a point.

OTOH it could be a bit like the guy who jumps out of 50 storey building saying as he goes past the 25th storey "Well, it's OK so far!"

[Jotapay]

I guess I can go back to living in my camper. I did it in college for a while.

[Specop_007]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil_be_alroit', 'I') think Specop_007 certainly has a point. OTOH it could be a bit like the guy who jumps out of 50 storey building saying as he goes past the 25th storey "Well, it's OK so far!"

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ColossalContrarian', 'A') lot of people are about to lose their retirements.

[Specop_007]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'M')any people have already had to delay their retirements, according to many media reports I've seen. Socko punches from rising prices, declining real incomes, and lost or downsized jobs and small businesses.
I know a guy in the home-improvement business who is teetering on the edge. A big wave of unemployment could destroy or damage many retirements. People have to use up their retirement money prematurely, then try to find a job.
Declining 401k values can put a big hurtin' on retirement dreams. Similarly, pensions could blow up, and people get letters saying, Sorry, the money's all gone. Then there's the Social Security mess.
Enough examples for you? My brother, whose job as a public schoolteacher of Latin is highly vulnerable, jokes about ".38-caliber retirements."

[Heineken]

Well, SpeCop, disaster happens one person at a time. When it happens to you, it's as though it's happened to the whole world---your world.

I agree with your general tone in several of these threads that the predictions of economic collapse are probably overblown or premature.

We won't know it's happened until it's happened. I do believe it will happen . . . eventually. The ship is pretty clearly on that general course.

I feel that the longer it takes to happen, the worse it will be and the harder to recover from. The reason for that is that the natural resource base on which everything depends will be in worse shape down the road.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '.')..I agree with your general tone in several of these threads that the predictions of economic collapse are probably overblown or premature...

[ColossalContrarian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ColossalContrarian', 'A') lot of people are about to lose their retirements. No, not the end of the world for you or me but, ha, it's all fun and games until someone gets hurt.

[Eppo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ColossalContrarian', 'B')OTTOM LINE: In a depression, a lot of people lose money, even their life savings.

[The_Virginian]

The "BRIGHT" side to all of this economic mess, is it may keep some (most?) of the "baby boomers" contributing "taxes" untill peak oil really hits...

as well as delaying the worst effects of PO for later by leveling off demand...

specualtors make money in all kinds of markets, and not just with "shorts"...

Spec-op may be up in the game, but he is not a PASSIVE investor like most suckers.