[roccman]

She said LEH would be bailed out. I said they were toast. I won.

The bet was an OZ of silver. A few weeks ago I told her I would accept bragging rights in lieu of the coin...she agreed. So I am bragging and saving her money (nice guy huh?)

1:3

Specop007 you are next. Tyler...get in line bro...cuz oil is going to $250 this year. Anyone else?

[DantesPeak]

Congradualtions. I thought they would be bailed out too, and the Fed tried but failed.
So what happens to AIG? I say odds slightly favor that the Fed faced with a systemic meltdown tommorow, caves in and finances AIG directly or seeks help from the US Treasury. But there is a fairly good chance this blows up anyway.

[Plantagenet]

Congrats on your correct call on LEH, Rocc.

[PenultimateManStanding]

kind of stuff we've all been expecting, isn't it? no, wait, that comes later with no food and gasoline. . .

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'k')ind of stuff we've all been expecting, isn't it?

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'S')pecop007 you are next. Tyler...get in line bro...cuz oil is going to $250 this year. Anyone else?

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'k')ind of stuff we've all been expecting, isn't it?

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'S')pecop007 you are next. Tyler...get in line bro...cuz oil is going to $250 this year. Anyone else?

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'k')ind of stuff we've all been expecting, isn't it?

[DantesPeak]

WaMu is a dead man walking, but AIG is an atomic bomb about to explode.

A failure of AIG would be seen everywhere as a sign a depression is coming.

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'k')ind of stuff we've all been expecting, isn't it?

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', ' ')I'll help with the corn crop. But that isn't what you should be growing. There are drought resistant crops.

[BigTex]

I will be interested to see about WWIII and the cancellation of the election.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'I') will be interested to see about WWIII and the cancellation of the election.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'I') will be interested to see about WWIII and the cancellation of the election.

[AlexdeLarge]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'I') will be interested to see about WWIII and the cancellation of the election.

[TheDude]

Heartfelt congratulations on having correctly prognosticated the precise manner in which we are screwed for the foreseeable future. Russian troops captured by the Wehrmacht probably chatted about how they'd meet their demise, too. Will they line us all up on a bridge and fire a single bullet through our skulls? Or ship us to a factory and work us to death making potato mashers?

Odds that both roccs continue to confusingly use the same avatar?

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'A')nyone else?

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'I') will be interested to see about WWIII and the cancellation of the election.

[FreedomSlave]

Wouldn't a "bailout" of AIG also be an admission of its failure? Maybe it would give some more time to "unwind" (i.e., sucker dump) large positions, but a failure none-the-less. And what does that say, or change? Tick-tock, tick-tock....

If AIG's failure is an "atomic bomb" for the financial markets - an unmistakeable harbinger of the onset of a depression - then that makes Rocc's remaining forecast more likely, IMHO. TPTB will be losing control rapidly, desperate to keep it, and have little to loose.

Of course, a "Truth and Reconciliation" commission, with blanket promises of immunity and/or pardons, might undermine Rocc's foreseen moves of the Bushites. But then I think that complete economic meltdown would also be guaranteed, and it would unfold quickly.

Then there is always the possible compounding effects of outside actions to shove the U.S. over the edge, all beyond our control. We can only react, and with diminishing options. No good options...