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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Peak Oil & Economics Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Questioning peak oil economic assumptions

Unread postby Doly » Fri 30 Nov 2007, 08:52:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Second, that the most important route through which oil prices affect output is monetary policy: when oil prices pass through to core inflation, monetary authorities raise interest rates, slowing growth. It is argued that the direct effect of high oil prices on output is relatively small and that the microeconomic mechanisms proposed in the literature are insufficient to explain the historical impact of oil prices. Based on the second argument, the third argument is that high oil prices have not reduced growth in the past three years because they no longer pass through to core inflation, so the monetary tightening previously seen in response to high oil prices is absent.


He has one thing right: the main reason that oil prices caused rampant inflation in the past was monetary policy. However, that doesn't mean there isn't a problem.

What I think high oil prices trigger is stagflation. (Have you read economics news lately? It looks like stagflation is raising its ugly head again.) Monetary policy can help choose how much is the recession component and how much is the inflation component. This time round, the Fed and central banks elsewhere have been very careful to avoid rampant inflation... and they are leading us into what looks like may become a very black depression.

The reason high oil prices cause stagflation is simple:
1) They cause inflation because almost everything is transported, and rising oil prices lead to rising prices on almost everything else.
2) They cause recession because it's just more difficult to produce anything if moving things around becomes more difficult. Which leads to reduced production of almost everything.

Both these effects may not show up immediately, things take time to percolate through the economy.

If central banks choose to keep interest rates high, it's expected to curb inflation but it actually doesn't work, because the rise in prices is led by something that is imported, not done locally. So prices keep going up anyway, people start demanding higher salaries, and the inflation spiral continues.

If central banks choose to keep interest rates low, it's expected to avoid recession but again it doesn't work, because you can't change the fact that costs of production are going up while the purchasing power of people isn't increasing (they are also paying high fuel prices). The difference with the above scenario is that individuals and companies are encouraged to borrow to cover for the fact that their incomings aren't covering their outgoings. So people borrow instead of asking for higher salaries, and companies borrow instead of rising the prices for their products, and inflation stays reasonably low. Of course, this is unsustainable. But nothing seems to be going wrong until the debt bubble explodes.

In short, the effect you get is just the opposite of classic economic theory: high interest rates will lead to more inflation, and low interest rates will lead to more recession. This is because classic economic theory assumes that imports and exports are not a major part of the economy. These "counterintuitive" effects happen because it's an imported commodity what's causing you trouble.

I'm pretty sure this outlines what economic textbooks of the future will have to say on this matter.
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Re: Questioning peak oil economic assumptions

Unread postby ThunderChunky » Sun 02 Dec 2007, 21:59:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '
')
Join date Sept 17, 2007

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Wow, you been here a whopping 4.5 months longer than him.
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The Crap is Hitting the Fan

Unread postby Sys1 » Mon 15 Sep 2008, 08:50:57

I've the feeling that the world economy is about to collapse. I really hope I'm wrong but french radios where they used to speak IPods, Beijing 2008 and soccer start to speak about 1929. About -5% for the CAC40 (France) today, that's a huge drop.
After a super doomer comment from an economist, the stupid journalist tryed to balance the bad news by pointing how oil went down to less than 100$, which is great. How stupids and clueless people are. Yesterday, everything was about Benoit XVI who visited France. It was so strange to see politics so thankfull to see him coming. Seems they didn't have better to do than praying.
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Re: The Crap is Hitting the Fan

Unread postby nocar » Mon 15 Sep 2008, 12:24:20

Well, I believe that 1929 is quite survivable. When things get like in 1939-1945 in Europe, that's when I will get scared.

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Re: The Crap is Hitting the Fan

Unread postby Revi » Mon 15 Sep 2008, 12:55:16

The economy around here is tanking too. I wonder how long it will all hold up?

We can only live one day at a time.

We'll see what happens.
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Re: The Crap is Hitting the Fan

Unread postby doodlebug2 » Mon 15 Sep 2008, 13:31:26

I am certainly no economist, but the trouble with the investment banks and other financial inst. have me wondering. Lehman was around 100plus yrs and it collapses? I am glad that it wasn't bailed out , I don't think we (taxpayers) can bail everybody out. IMO. Wondering what other bombs to our system of finance are looming????
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Re: The Crap is Hitting the Fan

Unread postby The_Virginian » Mon 15 Sep 2008, 13:42:01

About to "collapse"? It already did IMHO.

Fed can no longer bail us out... the purse strings been tightened.
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Re: The Crap is Hitting the Fan

Unread postby TreebeardsUncle » Mon 15 Sep 2008, 13:57:00

The following 8 companies are likely to experience significant difficulties within the next 2 years:
GM, Ford, Chrysler, Washington Mutual, Citibank, AIG, Beazer, Homes and UBS.

Will check on the names of some more mortgage insurers. There are a couple more besides AIG that may be bought out or go bankrupt. It will take a bit more for the DOW to fall below 11,000. Still think some natural gas suppliers may be a good buy this month and oil drillers next month.

g
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Re: The Crap is Hitting the Fan

Unread postby DirtyHowi » Mon 15 Sep 2008, 16:33:28

1633 EST dow @ 10917.51 down 504 or 4%, and it's only monday.
looking forward to how high does a dead banker bounce
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Re: The Crap is Hitting the Fan

Unread postby joeltrout » Mon 15 Sep 2008, 16:38:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', 'I')t will take a bit more for the DOW to fall below 11,000.

Please don't discredit yourself so soon.
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Re: The Crap is Hitting the Fan

Unread postby Ferretlover » Mon 15 Sep 2008, 18:11:16

The fan is going to take a LOT more hits before "all is said and done," so don't get too excited about it now. The time to worry is when you can't even SEE the fan because it is buried in crap, and the plug is throwing off sparks-n-smoke.
"Open the gates of hell!" ~Morgan Freeman's character in the movie, Olympus Has Fallen.
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Re: The Crap is Hitting the Fan

Unread postby Jotapay » Mon 15 Sep 2008, 18:15:50

Until I have to top off all my 30-round magazines, put them inside my tactical vest pockets, and keep my rifle within arms reach, I'll not think the poo has hit the fan yet. This is pretty bad, but it can (and probably will) get much worse.
Last edited by Jotapay on Mon 15 Sep 2008, 18:16:20, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Crap is Hitting the Fan

Unread postby killJOY » Mon 15 Sep 2008, 18:16:01

I queried my writing students this morning: did they know what was going on in the economy and why it's significant?

Blank stares.

One guy said: "I don't know. I've been dealing with football all weekend."


d00m.
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Re: The Crap is Hitting the Fan

Unread postby Daculling » Mon 15 Sep 2008, 18:20:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', 'T')he following 8 companies are likely to experience significant difficulties within the next 2 years:
GM, Ford, Chrysler, Washington Mutual, Citibank, AIG, Beazer, Homes and UBS.


WaMu and AIG might have a tough week but I don't think it will last much longer than that. :)
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Re: The Crap is Hitting the Fan

Unread postby patience » Mon 15 Sep 2008, 18:22:29

KillJOY,

I with ya! My customers today, reacting to gas prices going up (after Indiana's first HUURICANE yesterday), are saying, "If they'd just let 'em drill, we got all the oil we need in this country!" "Don't need no damn Demmycrat fer prezdent!" No mention of Wall Street. I don't think many of them know where it is.

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Re: The Crap is Hitting the Fan

Unread postby Ferretlover » Mon 15 Sep 2008, 18:39:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', ' ')It will take a bit more for the DOW to fall below [s]11,000[/s] 10,917.51.

There. Fixed that for you, TreebeardsUncle. :)
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Re: The Crap is Hitting the Fan

Unread postby burtonridr » Mon 15 Sep 2008, 19:28:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', 'I') queried my writing students this morning: did they know what was going on in the economy and why it's significant?
Blank stares.
One guy said: "I don't know. I've been dealing with football all weekend."

Thats the problem! Everyone is business as usual, ignore the problem until it hits them in the face like a steel poll knocking them flat on their ass. Please tell me he was in highschool or something and the class isnt a college class.
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Re: The Crap is Hitting the Fan

Unread postby Daculling » Mon 15 Sep 2008, 19:43:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('burtonridr', 'P')lease tell me he was in highschool or something and the class isnt a college class.

What's the difference? Everyone goes to college now on credit.
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Re: The Crap is Hitting the Fan

Unread postby killJOY » Mon 15 Sep 2008, 20:10:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat did you tell them after that?


SHanny, good question!

I teased them.

I explained a little about the financial implosion and how it's directly related to "the oil situation, which we are going to learn about later in the semester."

:-D
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Role of PO in current economic collapse?

Unread postby hermit » Wed 17 Sep 2008, 10:40:15

I'd like some help understanding the way in which PO has impacted the current economic collapse. To most, the collapse has come from our own financial and lending practices, but I'm sure that there is a PO aspect.... Can someone help me connect the dots?
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