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What $300-a-Barrel Oil Will Mean for You - Charles Maxwell

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: What $300-a-Barrel Oil Will Mean for You - Charles Maxwe

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 12 Sep 2008, 20:01:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', 'I')f oil hits $300 a barrel and stays above for 3 months or more I will eat my boots.......[ ww3 or other major disasters not included ]
Perhaps you should provision that statement to say "If oil hits $300 a barrel [in 2008 dollars] and stays above for 3 months or more I will eat my boots......." Ignoring changing supply/demand fundamentals, a 3% inflation rate alone will turn $200 oil in to $300 oil in less than 14 years.
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: What $300-a-Barrel Oil Will Mean for You - Charles Maxwe

Unread postby DantesPeak » Fri 12 Sep 2008, 21:15:04

Gasoline was selling for $220 wholesale a barrel today in the Gulf Coast, and consumers that needed gas were buying it at an even higher price.

The jump from $200 to $300 isn't that far. Yes, many people will no longer afford it at that price, but that won't stop price rises from happening when oil supplies are reduced.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: What $300-a-Barrel Oil Will Mean for You - Charles Maxwe

Unread postby energycity » Sat 13 Sep 2008, 07:43:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', '
')
250-300 a barrel any time from now till 2015 will stop our economy and Europe as well,, dont tell me what Europe is paying now for gas what would it be at 300 a barrel, can they afford that.


As most of the gas price in Europe is tax, presumably if oil hit $250-300 a barrel, they would have to remove some of that tax and cut their massive bloated welfare spending. They'd need some more troops on the streets to keep order, but it's just about doable.
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Re: What $300-a-Barrel Oil Will Mean for You - Charles Maxwe

Unread postby cube » Sat 13 Sep 2008, 13:00:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('timmac', '.')..
When it was getting close to $150 barrel, demand went down and when it gets to $175 barrel demand will fall futher, many more business will go broke, maybe no airlines at this price.
...
At $300 / barrel oil you might have to cancel that family reunion get-together in Las Vegas and the 400 mile road trip in the family station wagon but....
You still need to go to work and truck drivers still have to deliver food from the farm to the city. So I think $300 oil is perfectly possible. :-D
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Re: What $300-a-Barrel Oil Will Mean for You - Charles Maxwe

Unread postby timmac » Mon 15 Sep 2008, 16:33:53

Well oil is now down to $95 a barrel.

This is more proof that it won't get as high as $300.

I don't think we will see $225 a barrel for at least 2015.
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Re: What $300-a-Barrel Oil Will Mean for You - Charles Maxwe

Unread postby doodlebug2 » Mon 15 Sep 2008, 21:15:01

vtsnowedin wrote:

America can and probably will cut its per capita oil consumption in half in the next few years. No home will be heated with oil, truck freight miles will be cut by more than half, suburbs will be reordered to make them viable and served by mass transit. But 300 dollar oil will not be avoided in fact it may be an important first call that change is apon us.

I agree with the first part of your post, but the above I do not see.
Homes will be heated with what (NG) and who will pay for the changeovers.
Suburbs reordered? who will buy the peoples older distanced houses in the suburbs? How will freight miles be cut?
I am not being critical, just curious.
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Re: What $300-a-Barrel Oil Will Mean for You - Charles Maxwe

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 16 Sep 2008, 23:59:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doodlebug2', 'v')tsnowedin wrote:

America can and probably will cut its per capita oil consumption in half in the next few years. No home will be heated with oil, truck freight miles will be cut by more than half, suburbs will be reordered to make them viable and served by mass transit. But 300 dollar oil will not be avoided in fact it may be an important first call that change is apon us.

I agree with the first part of your post, but the above I do not see.
Homes will be heated with what (NG) and who will pay for the changeovers.
Suburbs reordered? who will buy the peoples older distanced houses in the suburbs? How will freight miles be cut?
I am not being critical, just curious.


Home heat? wood,wood pellets, coal ,active solar, passive solar and NG while it lasts. Who pays ? You the home owner of course.
Truck freight miles? First you stop UPS et. al from delivering door to door for anything less than a full load. Then you limit truck hauling to , pickup point to nearest rail station and rail station to delivery point. Then you reopen a rail station in every town that had one in 1945. No gov. mandate required here just let diesel get and stay high enough and UPS and the rail roads will merge and do it themselves.
To reorder the suburbs zoning will have to be thrown out so that each building can be put to its highest use. Older houses are more likely to be in a good place while the newest stock is at the far edges. Some of the newest houses will become worthless and will be bulldozed in and the land returned to farm or forrest. What new Fani/Fredie dose with the jingle mail is one of the things they are working on this week. Some houses can and should be converted to work shops ,stores, schools,doctors offices etc. so that the residents of the surrounding houses can walk to work and everything else they need. These will become the reincarnation of the New England village where those that choose to can live and work indefinitely within site of their house. Transportation could be mostly by truck and bus to and from the nearest train station. At the height of the rail system they had tracks about every fifty miles so no trip to the rails was over twenty five miles, a days walk for a horse. They may have to relay some track and will if the traffic is there.
All these things will come to pass by them selves if and when the cost of fuel makes them the economic competitive choice. Watch the government try to impose somthing else or these at the wrong time and place.
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Re: What $300-a-Barrel Oil Will Mean for You - Charles Maxwe

Unread postby doodlebug2 » Wed 17 Sep 2008, 09:13:55

Thanks Vtsnowedin.
Answered my curiousity perfectly.
Those are excellent ideas. I have a wood stove, use it more as a backup to my oil heat.
The idea of bulldozing new mcmansions gives me great joy as they return to woods/farmland hahahahhahaha
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