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THE Pandemic Thread (merged)

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Re: Global Bubonic Plague

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 14 Sep 2008, 07:03:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CarlosFerreira', 'I')t's never a good thread when the Z word, as VMarcHart puts it (cheers!) pops up at the first post. One of the bad things of discussing these matters is that, when you try to argue a differen position, you're on of the Z's. --snip-- So, no RUN AWAY. There's nowhere to run away to. You don't run away from problems, you face them and try to understand what you can make out of them, out of what you have. Opportunities and threats lie along the way, but that's just the way our world is built. We'll make it - somewhere, somehow.

Not precisely correct in that the first post in the thread (my own) had few Z-words, only VeneZuela and Zombies as I recall, and Zombies only paranthetically as a descriptor for those infected with the disease of greed. It took a couple of more posts for Cash to drop in the NaZi bomb on the thread.
No doubt, as soon as Nazis get dropped into a thread, it can devolve quickly. Which maybe is why Cash dropped the Nazi bomb? Anyhow, my effort was to defuse this bomb in the agreement that the world is more volatile now than it has been at any time since the fascist dictatorships of the 30s rose to power.
If you are going to discuss relative outcomes here in the aftermath of Peak Oil and a global economic crash, you clearly have to deal with the Nazi problem, so I certainly would not ban anyone from bringing up the parallels just because it tends to make a thread pretty explosive. Text deleted
Anyhow, to this point I don't see that this has disrupted the thread, though I would like to see something else besides Nazism discussed here. Plenty of other stuff to focus on in the originating post.
Last edited by Ferretlover on Sun 26 Apr 2009, 20:48:00, edited 2 times in total.
Reason: Text deleted: questiioning the actions of Staff.
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Re: Global Bubonic Plague

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 14 Sep 2008, 07:21:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CarlosFerreira', 'S')o, no RUN AWAY. There's nowhere to run away to. You don't run away from problems, you face them and try to understand what you can make out of them, out of what you have. Opportunities and threats lie along the way, but that's just the way our world is built. We'll make it - somewhere, somehow.

RUN AWAY is a metaphor, and it is a relative term. No, you certainly cannot run away from the consequences of global warming, they are everywhere. However, you CAN run away from living in a large population center where the problems of society will be magnified by the size of the population in a given area. You cannot run away from the need to work to support yourself and contribute to your community, but you CAN run away from a type of work like say being a Trader on the market and become a subsitence farmer. You can't run away from having some philosophy to guide your life, but you CAN run away from Christianity or Islam or Market Capitalism or Communism as your personal ideology.

You are faced with choices as an individual, some choices will work to help the society and help it to survive the coming storm, others will only serve to further the road to destruction. It is up to each individual to choose which side of the line he stands on, whether you stand with the People or with the holders of power and wealth who subjugate the people. I know what side of the line I stand on. As Tom Joad said in the Grapes of Wrath "Whenever they's a fight so hungry people can eat, I'll be there. Whenever they's a cop beatin' up a guy, I'll be there " Where will you be?
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Re: Global Bubonic Plague

Unread postby CarlosFerreira » Sun 14 Sep 2008, 07:25:27

My 2 points, if I haven't quite made myself clear:

1. Don't RUN AWAY. Weather the problems. Just because it's not going well, we can't reset, reload and go on from where we last saved the game. It's a fact. We'll make, you bet on it.

2. The "Zombie"/"Nazi" combo is the best way to wreck a perfectly good thread.

RE, I respect you, really. Even when bumped, you always respond with care and education. You even seem to enjoy it when people lose it on you. But the whole "apocalypse-monger" doesn't stick. It's bad, alright. But we've always managed to turn problems and threats into opportunities. There will be hardship; But we'll still be around in a long time unless some crazy lunatic drops The Bomb.
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Re: Global Bubonic Plague

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 14 Sep 2008, 07:45:18

Text dleted.
Last edited by Ferretlover on Sun 26 Apr 2009, 20:49:47, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Text deleted: way off topic.
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Re: Global Bubonic Plague

Unread postby Tdogg » Sun 14 Sep 2008, 08:22:46

First post after watching this site for the last couple years! Agree we will still be around, but not life as we have known it. Believe ReverseEngineer accurate re: tipping point!

After a 30 plus year career in Orlando area real estate have lost everything in the current downturn, including our home which we must vacate by the end of the month. As I look around I see many closed restaurants, retail, and service business and alot of vacancies in commercial centers/shopping centers. Foreclosure crisis far from over. Banks and Financials continue to tumble.

Weekend employment ads in the Orlando Sentinel down from 12-14 pages 2 years ago to 4 today. Global economy appears fragile. Food prices dramatically increasing around the world. Natural disasters worldwide seem to be occuring on more regular basis. Political tensions rising globally.

Am preparing to "hunker down". Have had an excellent vegetable garden for the last year, where we will be moving. Quite an economic step down, but sustainable. Have been spending some time finding economical (frugal) recipes on the internet. I expect retail spending to collapse this Christmas shopping. season! So unless something else major happens in the meantime, that could be the point the economy totally collapses. Prepare for the worst...hope for the best.
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Re: Global Bubonic Plague

Unread postby CarlosFerreira » Sun 14 Sep 2008, 08:24:09

Your points are both understood, and I respect your position. I believe we must not back down. I don't like the alternative, and I want to stand and fight.

Large population centres are commercial, spiritual and economic "gravity". They pull resources towards them, because they produce assets with more value; That means that a less-value item (food) is paid for with money from a more value asset (specialized labour, financial interest, whatever). Stick around. Will there be shortages? It's possible. We had a trucker strike here in Portugal and there were a few shortages. I suppose it could be better. But life in small population centres, that have less with which acquire food (because they produce less wealth) will be worse; The shortages will hit harder there.

There will always be will to maximize investment. To do that with staples like food, you sell your product in a highly populated area, where there's more demand. If and when we have shortages, they will hit small towns first - the one that, even today, don't have strawberries in January.

Fire away :roll:
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Re: Global Bubonic Plague

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 14 Sep 2008, 10:09:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CarlosFerreira', '.')Fire away :roll:

Large population centers, AKA Cities, are an artifact of the agricultural revolution and the centralization of wealth. Once it became possible to accumulate more food than was necessary to survive for a given population you did not need so many actually involved in ag production, and so they became industrious in other ways. Because at the beginning transportation was a logistical barrier, people not involved in ag production congregated together in cities, barter and trade happenned within the city proper, markets were formed for that. All to the good one would say in abstract, it enabled human kind to bootstrap itself up from humble beginnings as hunter-gatherers to SUV driving, Nintendo playing, Fast Food Eating, Suburban House living Citznes in the course of only about 4000 years. Marvelous!

In the downspin, also in abstract the large city theoretically has more economic viability then the small town does. Two problems of great signifcance with this one though. First off, the city is the very ESSENCE of centralization of wealth, which is what is at the root of the problem here. How many people here on Peak Oil are apalled by the wastefulness and greed of the mega rich in their Private Jets? The bigger any society becomes, the more you get centralization of wealth and the greater the dichotomy between those who work to make the society function and those who live above them and make the rules that keep them in power. For a VERY short time in America (and only while it was highly underpopulated and we could basically steal the land from those who got here before us), there was an egalitarian ideal pursued, but it did not last long and it was not all that real for an ag society. Of course Slaves were used to make it run until Fulton came up with the Steam Engine and then Otto came up with the internal combustion engine, at which point that type of slavery no longer made sense, to be replaced by the economic slavery we see today in the industrialized world. If this is something you see as a good organization for people, you could support the idea of the big city and a market economy. Its an inevitable result of the centralization of wealth, and you cannot stop it from happening by imposing a communist system on top of it. Communism fails in this regard because itself it is a centralization of power into a collective of people far too large to be responsive to the people. This on an economic level is why I cannot support the idea of big cities, and why I also see them as doomed in the post Peak Oil environment.

The second major reason to RUN AWAY from the big city is the Zombie problem (sorry to have to drop the Z word into this here). While on the upspin cities develop fairly gradually, in the downspin they devolve rather quickly. The potential for violence between people is extraordianary, and certainly in cities of today so highly dependent on energy to function they can fall apart just as soon as a hurricane takes out the power grid, or a lack of water makes sanitation problematic. Cities are highly complex machines dependent on many parts, and the bigger they are, the harder they will fall. If you happen to be residing in one when TSHTF, WATCH OUT. Think Buenos Aires and Ferfal here, and that is a GOOD outcome only possible because Argentina still functions inside the rest of the world and a black market can operate to keep it functioning to some level.

Although the Agricultural revolution and the industrial revolution which followed it in a sense benefited human kind by increasing the knowledge base, it was bad for humanity in the sense that it over time led to an overshoot of population and a destruction of the planet we live on and depend on for survival. Its not sustainable in this way, and it has to be STOPPED. It WILL be stopped by Mother Nature, it is quite obvious now that Mother Nature has rebelled, she has told us in no insignficant fashion NO MORE.

We will either die off or we will return to our roots as hunter gatherers, hopefully with a little better lifestyle courtesy of the ideas and inventions generated through the course of history. To be equitable, societies must remain small, my postulate is for societies of no more than about 10,000 human souls in a clearly defined geographic area that is self sustaining. Not precisely sure how many areas will be left short term as the result of the environmental degradation, but I am hopeful that perhaps 1000 such societies can survive the coming storm. In the aftermath of the Bottleneck here in population, perhaps 10 million human souls left on the planet. Quite a bit better result than the 10,000 Human Souls who repopulated the earth after Toba went Super Volcanic 60,000 years ago.

When all is said and done, if these societies have learned something from this, if those who survive are the ones who share with each other and care for each other and do not rape the planet and each other, human kind will have learned a lesson and been better off for it. If these are not the poeple who make it through, the Earth will be a charred planet hurtling through space for the next 4 billion years, until our sun goes burns itself out.Feel free to answer this as you would like :-)
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Re: Global Bubonic Plague

Unread postby mrobert » Sun 14 Sep 2008, 12:52:41

@ReverseEngineer: I absolutely agree with you and I share that oppinion with people all the time.

Big cities are like a computer. You can upgrade bits and pieces to make it better, but at some point you are stuck by the limitations imposed by it's core components.

Have you noticed that all this "plague" happens in the big cities?
I live in a city which from what I know, has around 1.000.000 inhabitants. It's going out of control. Everyone left my home town (60 miles from here), and moved here. Everybody is doing this. The city is suffocated! 2 months ago I was coming home, and the sewers filled up with water in the middle of the city and my car got hit by a major wave coming out from the sewer on the street (just like when you hit oil) and left me knee-deep in water and my car busted. Luckily I was able to have the car moved to my mechanic friend and fixed in 1 hour. All this caused by nothing more then a nice summer rain. They are building condos as tight as possible. The streets are narrow. The entire city is turned into one-way streets which are changed weekly. One night I found myself driving on a one-way street with 3 lanes coming towards me. They changed signs that night.

There are neighbourhoods which are a real challenge to drive through as there are cars parked in every bush and on every square centimeter.

Where will this go? To hell, if you ask me...

10-20.000 people communities are viable. I was in Germany recently in something I thought it was a village. Turned out it had 20.000 inhabitants. It sure looked like a village. Peaceful an quiet. Almost no traffic.
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Re: Global Bubonic Plague

Unread postby mos6507 » Sun 14 Sep 2008, 20:23:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'T')his on an economic level is why I cannot support the idea of big cities, and why I also see them as doomed in the post Peak Oil environment.

But you do realize that the cities are probably where you're Tom-Joad-fu is going to be most needed. Why abandon the people who will be in most need? You're just going to write them off as subhuman ex-Nintendo-playing suburbanites?
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Re: Global Bubonic Plague

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 14 Sep 2008, 20:42:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'T')his on an economic level is why I cannot support the idea of big cities, and why I also see them as doomed in the post Peak Oil environment.

But you do realize that the cities are probably where you're Tom-Joad-fu is going to be most needed. Why abandon the people who will be in most need? You're just going to write them off as subhuman ex-Nintendo-playing suburbanites?


Quite true, the plight in the big cities is going to be very bad, as evidenced by Ferfal's Buenos Aires.

I have another couple of analogies I use here to explain my viewpoint on this. It is like the Tsunami, and you are a mother holidng onto 2 children. If you try to hold onto both of them, you all will drown. You must let one of them go so that you may survive to help the other one. You must CHOOSE.

I had to let the City child go. In that environment, post collapse, I could not help that child to find food, to fish and to hunt. Here I can do those things. Here I can make a difference. In the city I could not.

The other tag line: Save as Many as You Can. You CANNOT save them all.

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Re: Global Bubonic Plague

Unread postby katkinkate » Sun 14 Sep 2008, 23:05:14

Isn't it all just an artifact of the record high population? Wars and conflict are usually over resources (land, energy, food, water) one group has and the the other wants and as populations grow and 'bump elbows', the conflicts increase. In history it was limited to certain areas flaring up one at a time, but now most countries are feeling squished and pressured by global growth all at the same time.
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Re: Global Bubonic Plague

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 14 Sep 2008, 23:19:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('katkinkate', 'I')sn't it all just an artifact of the record high population? Wars and conflict are usually over resources (land, energy, food, water) one group has and the the other wants and as populations grow and 'bump elbows', the conflicts increase. In history it was limited to certain areas flaring up one at a time, but now most countries are feeling squished and pressured by global growth all at the same time.


The resouce wars are the OUTCOME of population overshoot, not the cause of it. The high population also does not explain the reasons for the inequity in the distribution of wealth. What I am trying to explain here is the nature of a society which might be sustainable on the planet, not grow too fast for its britches and have reasonable equity within the subpopulations to remove the extremes of wealth and poverty we see as a result of socioeconomic development since the agricultural revolution.

Its clear there will be a population reduction, though by precisely what means and how fast it occurs is an open question. How much through starvation, how much thru war, how much through disease is anyone's guess.

The trick here is to learn something from the experience, and not make the same mistakes over again, though some we won't be able to make again since cheap easy to be had oil bubblin' up from the ground in TX is never to be seen again.

Anyhow, the beginning of the slide downhill has begun, now we all are in the soup together. None of us will be around to see how it all plays out in the end though. Just have to cross your fingers and hope Good triumphs over Evil.

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Re: Global Bubonic Plague

Unread postby DefiledEngine » Wed 17 Sep 2008, 16:15:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')In the end, only those who care about community and who work to help each other can survive.


Yes, those who care about their community and cooperate their best to destroy other communities that may compete with them for resources. Our brilliant cooperation is what has drained this planet of resources, and it is what will drive the coming wars.

Societies that limit themselves and live within their means always loose to the ones that overshoot and overconsume. They are simply not sustainable.
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Re: Global Bubonic Plague

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 18 Sep 2008, 03:58:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '
')Only those who conserve and live within their means will survive.


And when those hungry masses who didn't conserve and live within their means come banging on your door, demanding that you share, what will you do?
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Re: Global Bubonic Plague

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 18 Sep 2008, 04:01:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DefiledEngine', '
')Societies that limit themselves and live within their means always loose to the ones that overshoot and overconsume. They are simply not sustainable.


That's where the meek shall inherit the earth part comes in.
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Re: Global Bubonic Plague

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Thu 18 Sep 2008, 05:08:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'A')nd when those hungry masses who didn't conserve and live within their means come banging on your door, demanding that you share, what will you do?

Its a Tsunami. I will let those children go. I will not open the door. You CANNOT Save them ALL. Save as Many as you Can.
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Re: THE Pandemic Thread (merged)

Unread postby Cloud9 » Sat 01 Jan 2011, 22:15:57

This is more than one dead canary. A thousand birds die in Arkansas. http://www.todaysthv.com/news/local/sto ... 95&catid=2
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Re: Global Bubonic Plague

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sat 11 Nov 2017, 20:38:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'H')as anyone noticed here the simultaneous upwelling of political disruptions from Bolivia to Venezuela, from Georgia to Pakistan, from our own streets at the RNC? The board is becoming overun with a new thread about some HUGE crisis somewhere else in the world every day. They are popping up like Buboes on a Plague Victim.

Meanwhile, in the world of finance the buboes are popping up just as fast, if not faster. First it was just Bear Stearns; now every day a newer and bigger financial Giant is crumbling, from Fannie & Freddie to Lehman and WaMu in one weekend, with AIG and Merrill Lynch not far behind.

In the natural world, buboes like Ike & Gustav come hurtling out of the Atlantic into the GOM to infect the entire oil infrastructure, and at the same time the entirety of the Polar Ice Cap disintegrates in the course of the summer, releasing who knows how much methane into the atmosphere from clathrates.

Sense a pattern here? You need a sledgehammer over your head to get how connected all these things are? We reached a Tipping Point in 2008, and the WHOLE house of cards is coming tumbling down, from political structures to economic structures to the underpinning of the environment. The society and its underpinnings are falling apart at the core.

I have been accused on the board of being the "Most Doomerish" member. That is quite an honor considering the Doom that has been forecast here for years by members like MonteQuest, with whom I do not agree on many things, but he certainly was prescient in his analysis of the problems.

At this point however, you don't need to be a Nostradamus to see what is right in front of your face, to feel what is whacking you over the head with a sledgehammer. Every facet of society is spinning out of control, at a pace beyond belief these days. Yet still, people here on the board deny forecasts of Doom, Dodging Bullets all the time. "Thank God, Gustav was a Non-Event". HEY! This is not one Bullet here! Its a HAILSTORM of bullets, and sorry you cannot dodge them all, you are going to get hit by one of them.

We are experiencing the Plague on a Grand Scale, I knew it when I saw all Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse at my front door one day on the Internet. Famine, Plague, War & Death on a Worldwide level, not in just one place; not just one civilization falling while another rises. They ALL are falling, SIMULTANEOUSLY.

What do you DO when the Plague comes to your neighborhood? First you must RUN AWAY. RUN AWAY FAST. Then you must protect yourself from Plague Infected people, we call them Zombies here. Then you must burn all structures and all things which might be infected with the Plague. The Plague here in this case being Greed, Capitalism, the Market, Religion and all the rest of the concepts which have brought us into the mess we are in today.

I am not one of those here who thinks all human life on earth will be extinguished, not even by the melting of the Polar Icecap. So in this sense I am NOT the Most Doomerish member of the board. I do not right now think we necessarily are witnessing a Mass Extinction event. If we are, there is nothing can be done about it. If we are not, then in order to survive the Plague, first you must escape its path, then you must eradicate the infection of greed and selfishness. Make it your goal to escape first, and then Save as Many as You Can. That is the only way we can come out of this as a People. NObody comes out Alive? NO! Somebody gets left standing, and it will be those who work together as a community to do so.



From what MBS keeps posting this one might actually be starting to have some reality behind it.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: THE Pandemic Thread (merged)

Unread postby vox_mundi » Wed 20 Dec 2017, 15:10:05

A Federal Ban on Making Lethal Viruses Is Lifted

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Federal officials on Tuesday ended a moratorium imposed three years ago on funding research that alters germs to make them more lethal.

... In October 2014, all federal funding was halted on efforts to make three viruses more dangerous: the flu virus, and those causing Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).

But the new regulations apply to any pathogen that could potentially cause a pandemic. For example, they would apply to a request to create an Ebola virus transmissible through the air, said Dr. Collins.

Image


NIH Lifts Ban On Research That Could Make Deadly Viruses Even Worse

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')cientists could soon resume controversial experiments on germs with the potential to cause pandemics, as government officials have decided to finally lift an unusual three-year moratorium on federal funding for the work.

The research involves three viruses — influenza, SARS, and MERS — that could kill millions if they mutated in a way that let the germs spread quickly among people.

The bird flu virus H7N9, for example, is known to have infected more than 1,500 people, and 40 percent of them died. But unlike common flu strains, this one does not spread easily among humans.

Image


Also, Trump hasn't nominated a Secretary of Health and Human Services

CDC Banned from Using 'Evidence-Based' and 'Science-Based' in Official Documents

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.').. An analyst who attended the meeting at the CDC in Atlanta told The Washington Post that instead of “evidence-based” or “science-based,” policy analysts are instructed to use the phrase, “CDC bases its recommendations on science in consideration with community standards and wishes.”


Galileo had the same problem ...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')img]https://s3.amazonaws.com/lowres.cartoonstock.com/history-barcelona-spanish_inquisition-rack-inquisition-tv_show-jdun653_low.jpg[/img]
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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
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Re: THE Pandemic Thread (merged)

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 06 Mar 2018, 18:18:57

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to- ... d7711b873c


CDC to cut by 80 percent efforts to prevent global disease outbreak
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
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