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Post Ike, is U.S. vulnerable to a quick knock out blow?

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Post Ike, is U.S. vulnerable to a quick knock out blow?

Unread postby FreedomSlave » Fri 12 Sep 2008, 01:46:19

Chavez is cutting diplomatic ties to the U.S., which follows Russian bomber deployments to Venezuela.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080912/ap_ ... nezuela_us

Putin warns us - again - to back off on the missile shield, and has a few hard feelings over the Georgia mess.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080911/ts_ ... 2mdTys0NUE

The U.S. is losing the "real war" against terrorism in Afganistan.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/mcclatchy/30417 ... c39lCs0NUE

And the entire world knows we've stretched our military to the breaking point in Iraq.

Not to mention that: our financial markets are in a tailspin, government bailouts that are extra-constitutional (and failing to make a difference), we have deflation of assets and inflation of consumer prices, increasing unemployment, "peak everything", etc....

So, it occurs to me that Putin, Hugo and the Mullahs in Iran may have an opportunity - assisted through mother nature's wrath on Houston, the onset of Peak Oil, and taking the greatest advantages of our hubris and the forces of nature - to do to us what we did to the old Soviet Union, i.e., use oil as a weapon to drive the last nails into the coffin of our "empire"(only this time, to hurt the U.S., they restrict oil flow rather than flood the market, as the Saudi's did at our behest in the 1980's).

Couldn't an oil export embargo by these three producers, at this critical time (and given sufficient damage to our oil infrastructure from Ike) be enough to push our already fragile economy straight down the toilet? Put another way, isn't it now possible for our adversaries to "win" WWIII without them firing a shot?

(I realize that there would be a desire by many in the U.S. to then use force...but when we are not actually attacked by an outside force, do you think the political will would exist to risk nuclear war?)

Throw on top of all that a huge dollar dump and "cheap" oil buy-up by China, India, etc, and we could have the beginnings of a real crisis... 8O

This isn't meant to be tinfoil, doomer porn or wishful thinking - just a little game theory and speculation.

Thoughts?
Last edited by FreedomSlave on Fri 12 Sep 2008, 12:20:37, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Post Ike, is U.S. vulnerable to a quick knock out blow?

Unread postby Cashmere » Fri 12 Sep 2008, 02:23:23

OP - this is not directed to you specifically . . .

People have recently taken to throwing this out there a lot . . .

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'g')overnment bailouts that are extra-constitutional
.

Here's some Con Law 101 for all you art majors out there.


The Constitution is a ghost. It was killed a long long time ago. What exists now is the illusion of law.



Let's start with this - if you're pro-abortion, abortion was made legal by the fabrication of a right in the Constitution.

So right off the bat, the 50% or so of Americans who wanted abortion to be legal badly enough to accept the creation of a right out of thin air that was then jammed up the ass of the Constitution have not a damn thing to say about the current abuse of the Constitution.

That's just the most obvious abuse of the Constitution - there are hundreds others, including the creation of Federal criminal law, the expansion of the Federal legislative power through the commerce clause, the fighting of wars without a declaration of war from Congress, and so on.


TJ said it best with the famous quote about, "to take one step beyond the bounds . . . unleash power . . . cannot be taken back . . . " Not the exact quote - somebody else can look it up.

The Constitution was under assault from the second it was ratified because that Founding Douchebag A. Hamilton was trying to get the European banks access to America through a national bank.

So my point is, I don't know of anybody other than myself who would actually be happy to take us back 230 years to the structure of government we had then and then keep it that way.

Everybody's got their pet issue. Everybody has received their dole.

What's yours?


But when you receive your dole, keep in mind that what you've done is taken your turn at defecating on the residual memory of what the Constitution originally was meant to be.


The Constitution is dead, stop crapping on it by accusing other people of acting "extra constitutionally".

You want abortion? You want the NSF? You want a federal minimum wage? You want the FDA making sure your milk is pasteurized and oleo has to be sold white with a yellow dye pack?

You got it.

But then you get fannie/freddie bailout, you get Bear Stearns, you're going to get LEH/WB/WM and many others.

You are going to get the socialist nanny state that you have been begging for, but you're not going to get the chubby and amiable nanny that sings you lullabies - you're going to get the one that takes you in the back room and beats the sh-t out of you every day because she's got cramps and you're there.

You asked for it, you're going to get it. Every last one of you.

But please - you've been happy with the Federal expansion that has been occurring every second of every day of your life, and you've taken your part in the great dole, and you've done your part to crap on the Constitution.

Please please don't point to the guy crouching next to you and accuse him of defecatory malfeasance, you big poop.
Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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Re: Post Ike, is U.S. vulnerable to a quick knock out blow?

Unread postby FreedomSlave » Fri 12 Sep 2008, 02:44:31

Cash,

I AM the guy that would go back to the original intent of the Constitution with you (minus the "Great Compromise" 3/5 person BS). My use of "extra-constitutional" refers to the fact that only Congress is supposed to be able to allocate funds, and that the Executive Branch (Treasury) cannot Constitutionally spend funds that have not been appropriated by Congress. This latest usurpation is just an attempt to re-shuffle on a losing hand.

That said....do you have any thoughts on the scenario of my post?

(BTW - econ and poli sci undergrad degrees, J.D., licensed to practice law in 2 States. Please don't hold it against me. :) )
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Re: Post Ike, is U.S. vulnerable to a quick knock out blow?

Unread postby Cashmere » Fri 12 Sep 2008, 03:26:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreedomSlave', 'C')ash,

I AM the guy that would go back to the original intent of the Constitution with you (minus the "Great Compromise" 3/5 person BS). My use of "extra-constitutional" refers to the fact that only Congress is supposed to be able to allocate funds, and that the Executive Branch (Treasury) cannot Constitutionally spend funds that have not been appropriated by Congress. This latest usurpation is just an attempt to re-shuffle on a losing hand.

That said....do you have any thoughts on the scenario of my post?

(BTW - econ and poli sci undergrad degrees, J.D., licensed to practice law in 2 States. Please don't hold it against me. :) )



I think, in a world of fluffernutter, the Marshmallow is toughest.

So I think the U.S. will ride the wave on the heads of the peons of the Empire all the way down, and not until a dissolution of the entire system occurs because of the intrinsic instability in an Empire running with no legs will we see a final abdication.
Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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Re: Post Ike, is U.S. vulnerable to a quick knock out blow?

Unread postby Cashmere » Fri 12 Sep 2008, 04:02:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreedomSlave', 'C')ash, I AM the guy that would go back to the original intent of the Constitution with you (minus the "Great Compromise" 3/5 person BS).


Plus that BS and all the other BS, and when we wanted to change the BS, we'd amend the thing like it was intended to be amended, not through 5 bozos on the Supreme Court.
Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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Re: Post Ike, is U.S. vulnerable to a quick knock out blow?

Unread postby RdSnt » Fri 12 Sep 2008, 09:11:11

Your scenario won't happen without China's permission, and neither Russia or Venezuela want to be on the wrong side of that country.

Keep in mind that Putin is a grand master rated chess player. I would say that the current moves have more to do with weakening the Saudi royal family.
The play is for the middle east, as it has been for centuries. The United States is a mass of willfully ignorant and self-indulgent confusion and is quite irrelevant. Inspite of its ability to inflict enormous damage, it is quite powerless to deflect the current trajectory of its undoing. People, for obvious and personal reasons, are too focused on the "gun"(the military force that can be, briefly, brought to bear). In the global power play that is underway the violence is simply the cost of doing business and so far is a minor factor.

I see no overt action against the US that can be used by the stupid people in charge there. The US is simply being helped to tip itself over.
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Re: Post Ike, is U.S. vulnerable to a quick knock out blow?

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Fri 12 Sep 2008, 10:36:38

Embargo against whom?

The United States?

Fine, we'll bid up the price another couple bucks and import oil from other countries.

In order for this to work, OPEC would have to agree to significantly reduce its oil sales to everyone, not just the USA.

Triggering a major spike in oil prices ($250 is not outside of the range of possibility) would lead pretty much overnight into a global depression, dropping the price of oil to $25 a barrel and destroying those sovereign wealth funds. Does that seem like a good idea for the economic and political health of the Middle East?
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Re: Post Ike, is U.S. vulnerable to a quick knock out blow?

Unread postby JoeW » Fri 12 Sep 2008, 11:56:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreedomSlave', '
')The U.S. is loosing the "real war" against terrorism in Afganistan.



You lost me at "loosing" the real war. I just can't read anything further in a post after I see "loosing".
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Re: Post Ike, is U.S. vulnerable to a quick knock out blow?

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Fri 12 Sep 2008, 12:02:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I')n order for this to work, OPEC would have to agree to significantly reduce its oil sales to everyone, not just the USA.


Or they could persue long-term bilateral contracts with consumer nations on an individual basis, like they did in the days before OPEC.
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Re: Post Ike, is U.S. vulnerable to a quick knock out blow?

Unread postby FreedomSlave » Fri 12 Sep 2008, 12:35:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JoeW', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreedomSlave', '
')The U.S. is loosing the "real war" against terrorism in Afganistan.



You lost me at "loosing" the real war. I just can't read anything further in a post after I see "loosing".


It's called a typo, and thanks for pointing it out. I fixed it.

Now you are free to resume your spelling policing on other threads... :roll:

I wonder - do you make it far enough through such offending posts to find a second or third typo?
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Re: Post Ike, is U.S. vulnerable to a quick knock out blow?

Unread postby KingM » Fri 12 Sep 2008, 13:18:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreedomSlave', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JoeW', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreedomSlave', '
')The U.S. is loosing the "real war" against terrorism in Afganistan.



You lost me at "loosing" the real war. I just can't read anything further in a post after I see "loosing".


It's called a typo, and thanks for pointing it out. I fixed it.

Now you are free to resume your spelling policing on other threads... :roll:

I wonder - do you make it far enough through such offending posts to find a second or third typo?


The point is, if you can't be bothered to read through your post before clicking "submit" then there is a good chance that your initial premise is also sloppy and ill-considered. This should be especially true when you're starting a new topic.
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Re: Post Ike, is U.S. vulnerable to a quick knock out blow?

Unread postby FreedomSlave » Fri 12 Sep 2008, 13:20:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I')n order for this to work, OPEC would have to agree to significantly reduce its oil sales to everyone, not just the USA.


Or they could persue long-term bilateral contracts with consumer nations on an individual basis, like they did in the days before OPEC.


This is more along the lines I was considering in the original post. If China's oil supply is "guaranteed", they may be motivated to commence their dollar dump and start unwinding their bad investment in our soon-to-be bad debt.

It seems to me that the U.S. "empire" is on the precipice. One good shove, and we fall down - but could we get back up? Lack of spare capacity and such an embargo, even short term of say six months, might be a knock out for our economy, and with it, our imperial ambitions.

This line of thought is also an extension of the mutual defense assurances that have developed between Russia, Iran and Venezuela, and more broadly, expansion of the SCO. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_C ... ganization

This would be a jujitsu move - a way to get the U.S. off Russia's doorstep without initiating a military conflict, weaken NATO, increase security for SCO and allied members, gut further U.S. attempts at hegemony, etc. Europe is already dependent upon Russia to keep from freezing this winter, so those old allegiances could be rapidly re-evaluated. Peak oil would likely be revealed and accepted in the financial markets, since SA and other oil exporters could not ramp up production to keep the price down or meet anything close to current supply needs. And wouldn't that just increase Russia's power and influence (being the current largest producer) while driving a stake through the heart of the U.S. economy?

It would be a massive global paradigm shift, for sure...but who would stand to win and who would stand to lose?

So back to the question - could such an embargo against the U.S. kill our imperial ambitions? Put another way, would the U.S. financial markets, economy, infrastructure, and available resources be able to absorb ANY significant cut in oil supplies if we lose a significant portion of Gulf production/refining/import capacity?

(edit - spelling - I missed an "n" in "financial". Did that stop anyone in their tracks?) :lol:
Last edited by FreedomSlave on Fri 12 Sep 2008, 19:55:51, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Post Ike, is U.S. vulnerable to a quick knock out blow?

Unread postby FreedomSlave » Fri 12 Sep 2008, 13:30:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreedomSlave', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JoeW', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreedomSlave', '
')The U.S. is loosing the "real war" against terrorism in Afganistan.



You lost me at "loosing" the real war. I just can't read anything further in a post after I see "loosing".


It's called a typo, and thanks for pointing it out. I fixed it.

Now you are free to resume your spelling policing on other threads... :roll:

I wonder - do you make it far enough through such offending posts to find a second or third typo?


The point is, if you can't be bothered to read through your post before clicking "submit" then there is a good chance that your initial premise is also sloppy and ill-considered. This should be especially true when you're starting a new topic.


Every author of every published book has an editor or multiple editors, and yet I rarely have seen a book that did not have at least one typo. I re-read my posts several times before hitting "submit". I missed a typo on the original post. Sue me. :razz:

The arrogance and triviality of some people astounds me. Try finding something of substance to bitch about, or keep surfing.
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