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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Oil : Gold Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The Oil : Gold Ratio

Unread postby chrispi » Mon 28 Jul 2008, 23:18:40

If you look at the graph, you will see three distinct peaks: before 9/11, during Hurricane Katrina, and now.

Check out the Dow:Gold graph. Maybe ol' Kunstler would have been right about his prediction of Dow 4000 were it not for dollar/dinar rot.

Dow/Gold Ratio
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Re: The Oil : Gold Ratio

Unread postby Micki » Tue 29 Jul 2008, 02:12:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ere is some supporting evidence that the recent run-up of gas prices is due not to PO, but the falling USD (a.k.a. the Yankoslavian Dinar):

Why can't it be both?
Oil did go up in most currencies, not just US$, so it wasn't just a dollar phenomenon.
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Re: The Oil : Gold Ratio

Unread postby chrispi » Tue 29 Jul 2008, 14:25:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', '
')Why can't it be both?
Oil did go up in most currencies, not just US$, so it wasn't just a dollar phenomenon.

That is to be expected. Very nearly all countries have inflation-prone fiat currencies, and oil and other commodities have, in general, increased with the rate of inflation. It's not affecting them nearly as badly as Yankoslavia, ahem, the USA.
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Re: The Oil : Gold Ratio

Unread postby 3aidlillahi » Tue 29 Jul 2008, 14:54:43

Image

If you go back further, you realize that we have a general downward trend. We're currently at $918 gold and $120 oil. That's 7.65. That's pretty much the lowest point it's ever been. Gold is becoming relatively cheap compared to oil as oil is consumed while gold is stored.

Silver and gold are great investments, but I'd rather have a contract for 1000 barrels of oil than 100 oz. of gold long-term.
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Re: The Oil : Gold Ratio

Unread postby chrispi » Tue 29 Jul 2008, 17:37:49

Honestly, I don't see the downward trend within the noise of spikes and troughs in the chart. Again, if you look at the gold/oil chart, its troughs are below 10:1 but above 5:1, and have been since 1975! This is not the behavior we'd expect from PO, which would give a net decreasing (gold/oil) or net increasing (oil/gold) chart.

I'm not saying that PO can't happen in the near future, just that its economic foreshocks have not happened yet. What we see is just as troubling as PO, however: precursors to hyperinflation in the USA.
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Re: The Oil : Gold Ratio

Unread postby 3aidlillahi » Tue 29 Jul 2008, 17:53:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chrispi', 'H')onestly, I don't see the downward trend within the noise of spikes and troughs in the chart. Again, if you look at the gold/oil chart, its troughs are below 10:1 but above 5:1, and have been since 1975! This is not the behavior we'd expect from PO, which would give a net decreasing (gold/oil) or net increasing (oil/gold) chart.

I'm not saying that PO can't happen in the near future, just that its economic foreshocks have not happened yet. What we see is just as troubling as PO, however: precursors to hyperinflation in the USA.


The average for the past few decades is more than twice what it is now! We're down by 40% from where we were prior to all of the commotion in the '70's and '80's with the shocks.

While gold has gone up about 200% over the past few years, oil's gone up more than 1000%! You're own graph even shows that. Your graph shows a low of 0.050 about to now 0.150. That's a 200% increase! That's not stability. Oil is getting more expensive. If you can't see that with your own facts that you trot out, then you are completely clueless about economics. Everything points to, over the past decade and even longer, that oil is becoming much more expensive compared to gold and silver.

But hey, if you wanna buy my Au and Ag, by all means. I'd love to get into oil at these prices. Just amazingly low.
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Re: The Oil : Gold Ratio

Unread postby Twilight » Wed 30 Jul 2008, 14:46:16

Some historical ratios may become meaningless. Some doubtless have in the past. One can easily compare the historical prices of two items, but it is more difficult to say where they are supposed to be once things start changing.
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Re: The Oil : Gold Ratio

Unread postby eastbay » Wed 30 Jul 2008, 14:58:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'S')ome historical ratios may become meaningless. Some doubtless have in the past. One can easily compare the historical prices of two items, but it is more difficult to say where they are supposed to be once things start changing.



Yes! We'll never reach peak gold. It can be passed back and forth indefinitely and never wears out. As we pass peak oil, and it becomes scarcer, a bbl of oil may eventually reach and exceed the dollar value of an oz of gold.

That will be a very long time from now. Maybe 20 years or so. 8O
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Re: The Oil : Gold Ratio

Unread postby chrispi » Wed 30 Jul 2008, 16:55:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'S')ome historical ratios may become meaningless. Some doubtless have in the past. One can easily compare the historical prices of two items, but it is more difficult to say where they are supposed to be once things start changing.



Yes! We'll never reach peak gold. It can be passed back and forth indefinitely and never wears out. As we pass peak oil, and it becomes scarcer, a bbl of oil may eventually reach and exceed the dollar value of an oz of gold.

That will be a very long time from now. Maybe 20 years or so. 8O


My point exactly. Oil is destroyed when it is used; gold isn't. If we did reach PO, we would have seen a definite upward trend in the oil:gold (or oil:your-commodity-here) ratio. Mostly we've seen some spikes after major catastrophes, and a quick climbdown afterwards.
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Re: The Oil : Gold Ratio

Unread postby Micki » Wed 30 Jul 2008, 19:47:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'S')ome historical ratios may become meaningless. Some doubtless have in the past. One can easily compare the historical prices of two items, but it is more difficult to say where they are supposed to be once things start changing.



Yes! We'll never reach peak gold. It can be passed back and forth indefinitely and never wears out. As we pass peak oil, and it becomes scarcer, a bbl of oil may eventually reach and exceed the dollar value of an oz of gold.

That will be a very long time from now. Maybe 20 years or so. 8O


That can either be seen as pro- a monetary role for gold.
i.e. it can remain as backing of currency without disappearing.
You don't want to link your currency to something that exists in very small quantity as the price per unit in that case becomes ridicelously high.

Silver on the other hand is and has been used up.
Currently estimated there is only 2.5 billion ounces silver above ground and 5 billion ounces of gold. And that is despite 5 times as much silver being mined annually to gold.

Both are supportive of each metal in it's own way.
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Re: The Oil : Gold Ratio

Unread postby 3aidlillahi » Wed 30 Jul 2008, 19:57:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')ridicelously


Mods, This may need a thread diverge, but this has been bugging me lately as I've really started to see this word jumbled up in all sorts of way: ridicelous, rediculous (most common, I think), rideculous. Not to pick on your Micki, but has anyone else seen this kind absurd spelling constantly lately on the internet? What is it about this particular word that is so difficult to spell correctly?

It's just ridiculous. Mini-rant over.
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Re: The Oil : Gold Ratio

Unread postby Micki » Wed 30 Jul 2008, 20:20:37

3aidlillahi, dont be ridicleous. I just didnt run spelshecker. I am not a naitive English speeker you now. 8)
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Re: The Oil : Gold Ratio

Unread postby 3aidlillahi » Wed 30 Jul 2008, 21:23:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', '3')aidlillahi, dont be ridicleous. I just didnt run spelshecker. I am not a naitive English speeker you now. 8)


Sigh...I just went over this. It's 'ridiculous'. People never learn.
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Re: The Oil : Gold Ratio

Unread postby eastbay » Thu 31 Jul 2008, 02:26:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chrispi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'S')ome historical ratios may become meaningless. Some doubtless have in the past. One can easily compare the historical prices of two items, but it is more difficult to say where they are supposed to be once things start changing.



Yes! We'll never reach peak gold. It can be passed back and forth indefinitely and never wears out. As we pass peak oil, and it becomes scarcer, a bbl of oil may eventually reach and exceed the dollar value of an oz of gold.

That will be a very long time from now. Maybe 20 years or so. 8O


My point exactly. Oil is destroyed when it is used; gold isn't. If we did reach PO, we would have seen a definite upward trend in the oil:gold (or oil:your-commodity-here) ratio. Mostly we've seen some spikes after major catastrophes, and a quick climbdown afterwards.



it's absolutely rediculous for people to think the 10 to 1 ratio will remain indefenitely. Just because it held for many decades, doesn't mean it's immune from the forces of marketplace impermanence.
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Re: The Oil : Gold Ratio

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 31 Jul 2008, 04:20:04

I guess when oil gets too expensive I will switch to running my car and heating my home with gold. Thanks for the advice! ; - ))
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Re: The Oil : Gold Ratio

Unread postby sparky » Fri 01 Aug 2008, 19:57:13

.
The only gold passed back an forth is the one in central banks reserves , I wonder if there has been some underground trading

Actually a fair bit of gold is destroyed in various industries such as electronics and decoration also in personal and apparel use.

there also is the fact that it take a lot of energy and oil to extract refine and transform gold ,there also is more and more people who are customers so the low price of gold is a bit of a kirk in the market

.... maybe traders are just plain dumb
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Oil and Gold fall, Gustav not as destructive as expected

Unread postby barbara23 » Wed 03 Sep 2008, 13:53:13

Hi guys, long time no see this forum :P Barbie reporting again.

Commodities fell after news that hurricane Gustav was not that destructive. Hence, the high oil prices reached crashed down. Crude-oil futures for October fell $5.75, or 5 percent, to $109.71 a barrel.

Gold slipped the most in three weeks yesterday with plunge in energy costs and a strengthened dollar, reducing the metal's importance as an alternate investment. Golf fell to $803.20/$804.20 an ounce late in New York on Tuesday.

Cheers! ;)
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Oil falls, Dollar declines and Gold strong as usual :)

Unread postby barbara23 » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 15:48:24

Hi traders! Our favorite commodities are bouncing just like a basketball ball. :P

Oil declined on Friday despite falling inventories, as dollar gained against the euro. Crude oil for October delivery fell $1.46 to settle at $107.89.

Dollar's decline gave gold the much needed boost. Spot gold ended gains into a second session to stand at $804.70 per ounce by 1021 GMT, up 0.45 percent from $801.10 in late New York trade on Friday.

Cheers! :wink:

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Re: Oil falls, Dollar declines and Gold strong as usual :)

Unread postby firestarter » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 15:58:14

Say what?

We just added $5 tril plus to the nation's balance sheet.

Oil is basically flat. The dollar is up big today. Treasuries caught an unlikely bid. Stocks are to the moon.

When you shake it all out what do you get? DEFLATION!
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Re: Oil falls, Dollar declines and Gold strong as usual :)

Unread postby FreedomSlave » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 19:22:16

RE: F & F takeover:

So what happens if, say, 10-25% of mortgagees default and are foresclosed upon by F & F? (Default is currently 9.2%). http://cryptogon.com/?p=3934

Does that mean our government will then hold title to those properties following foreclosure and then be able to dispose of the properties (to bank cronies, etc.) or otherwise transfer them into private hands through distressed selling? Obviously this would deflate surrounding property values further, and snow-ball the existing problems further in time and degree.

Sounds like another advance for our bankster overlords toward either neo-feudalism or "socialism" (if the properties remain under government ownership). Choose your party accordingly, the real powers remain in control.

Isn't this really the biggest transfer (read: theft) of wealth in history?
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