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You're In Charge. What's your plan?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: You're In Charge. What's your plan?

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 08:46:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nano', 'S')o part of my solution would be to reintroduce the draft and tentatively begin a new round of colonisation and invasion, taking care not to cross the outher major powers.

How would you sell the draft to the populace and how would you sell the idea of invasion? How would you pay for invasions?
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Re: You're In Charge. What's your plan?

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 09:00:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cash', '"')My plan would be this:
Cut military spending 90%. Bring everybody home.
Cut Domestic spending 50%.
Raise gas tax 2 dollars per gallon"

Cash, while this makes sense I doubt that is what we will do. Likely we will do quite the opposite.
Increase military spending so that we can assure a supply of oil
Cut domestic spending - OK I give on that one - it will be every man for himself on the home front.
Lower gas tax so that the good politicians can get re-elected. In fact I bet we hear a clamor for gas rebates for farmers and certain "critical" workers/trades and or the likes of volunteer firefighters.

While what you propose makes sense, I see no sign that we do what is logical.
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Re: You're In Charge. What's your plan?

Unread postby Byron100 » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 09:13:57

To heck with all that birth control stuff...it sounds mighty good on paper, but to try and have mass sterilizations....can anyone say "revolution"?

Since there's no way to avoid the economic crash and all the chaos that is sure to follow, I'd just try and give the people some glimmer of hope for the future, mainly by massive redistribution of wealth. Being poor isn't so bad when everyone else is poor as well. It's when you have the rich overlords hiding in their fortress towns in the midst of great economic deprivation - that's when it gets to be bad. Cities burning down, streets turned into rivers of blood, all that good stuff.

If I had my shot at being the man in charge, I'd probably get on TV and sing this little ditty:

Why weep or slumber America
Land of brave and true
With castles and clothing and food for all
All belongs to you

Ev'ry man a king, ev'ry man a king
For you can be a millionaire
But there's something belonging to others
There's enough for all people to share
When it's sunny June and December too
Or in the winter time or spring
Ev'ry neighbor a friend
With ev'ry man a king

(written by Huey Long in the mid 1930's)

There you go, that's my plan...to share and share alike.

Otherwise, I say just keep going like we are...full speed ahead until we slam into that brick wall...at least the crash will be a fast one...hehe.
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Re: You're In Charge. What's your plan?

Unread postby jlw61 » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 09:48:41

Actually, you forgot the other way of feeding people. Through the generousity of others. In the situation that is being described, the government is the sole decision maker of who get's food and under what circumstances.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')align=center]Giving government money and power is like giving a teenager booze and the car keys.[/align]


Logic dictates that you need to see what government tends to do with such powers. Over the past 50 years, whenever a new law has been passed (look up the war on drugs, the war on poverty and the war on terrorism) or a right curtailed (look up the history of the 4th amendment then the rest) government tends to push the envelope, to the disadvantage of the citizen.

If government has the right to demand short term sterilization (3 month shots) for the right to eat, then eventually they will have the right to take away the children of those who ask for help. Perhaps even, given the path of recent history, start filling up work farms with the impoverished. That would then end up with the enslaving of large portions of the population for the benifit of the rest. Kind of like how things used to be.

Not a nice scenario and given the history of the world to date, I think it reasonable to say that history proves that government does not play well with others.

The best solution is to take decisions, beyond the basics of governance, away from governement and relegate government to a limited role, such as defending the borders, arresting and prosecuting people who violate the rights of others, and for the most part leaving people alone.

The Plan - Over the next 10 years:

a) Close almost all overseas bases
b) Close about 50% of the domestic bases
c) Cut back the military (while maintaining a real good deterence)
d) Curtail the powers and duties of a of lot federal departments (see recent news articles for ideas)
e) Quit putting people in jail for victimless crimes and release those accused of same
f) Cut govenment spending by about 50% (all, not just non-discretionary) including all corporate welfare.
g) Eliminate most federal grant programs
h) Roll back RICO, FISA, Patriot Act, etc, etc, etc
i) End the war on terrorism, drugs, and poverty in that order
j) Encourage farming again by eliminate all taxes on single family farms producing food.
k) Eliminate all taxes on households earning under the poverty level

...but I digress.

Not only will this pay off the national debt within a few decades, but there will be a savins of a trillion or so dollars every year. With the wealth created, the public will spend the money in ways that make sense to them. Part of that will be supporting churches and charities of their choice.

The people who should be helping the poor are the churches and charities with no real power other than to say "The kitchen is now open" and "We think you might want to consider something..."

What will happen? Who knows, perhaps man kind really is too stupid to survive, but I can guarantee you that if government is given more control, nothing but misery and death will follow. However, if people are given the freedom to do as they decide, then there is a small chance something good could come from it.

The concept is easy, perhaps too easy: Give freedom a chance.




$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'N')ope, my "Implied Plan" is nothing like that at all. I figure nature will take care of the problem pretty well, people will just starve if there are too many of them.

I do not place myself in the role of GOD and tell anyone they can or cannot reproduce based on their financial means at a given moment. If it turns out long term their progeny cannot survive because the parents could not provide, so be it. I am a thorough Darwinist this way. I have no problem whatsoever with the idea of exposing an infant on a mountaintop because you cannot provide for it, I have no problem wit the idea of aborting an infant either. Choices individual people make based on their own economics.

Sorry Cash, you cannot get more absolute than I am with respect to human life. I just do not place the responsibility for the choice in the hands of the government, while you do. You want some kind of means test for having children, its absurd and could not be enforced. I will let nature take its course. Children will die if the parents cannot support them. That is the way it IS. Its the way of nature. I accept this as the nature of life on earth, and I do not inject myself into determining who lives and who dies by a means test. That is what you are doing.


Well, thank you for making your thoughts clear - I appreciate that.

In essence then, here is one difference between our thoughts on this - please correct anything with which you disagree:

1. If a woman came to me, as the government, with a child in her arms, on the verge of starvation, I, as the government, would be happy to give her and her child food provided that she first received a shot so she could not make another child.

2. You, as the government, would allow her and her baby to starve.

And in your view, my system would be wrong because I would be "playing God" by "administering a means test" for her reproduction, while your system would be right because you would apply no means test for her reproduction and she, and her baby, would starve.

I gotta say, that is one of the top 5 most bizarre positions I have seen somebody take.

Ever, in all my life.

I do, however, laud you for making it clear.
When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
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Re: You're In Charge. What's your plan?

Unread postby coyote » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 10:42:13

No guesses about the timeline or the rate of overall decline. Too many people have too many different ideas, most of them are wrong, and even our gurus doesn't seem to have a solid clue about it. Best stick with the sure knowledge that peak oil will happen, and probably soon.

So - if I am Emperor:

1. Environment: takes precedence over economy. No more "smart growth." The long-term carrying capacity of our bioregion becomes a federal policy issue. Coal plants are clean or they don't operate (phased out). Logging, fisheries and pollutants severely restricted. Negotiate intensely with other nations, especially China, over their environmental policies.

2. Population: halt immigration. Once again, takes precedence over economy. If corporations whine about the loss of cheap labor or goods, tough.

3. The shift to alternative energy is a priority. Biomass ethanol possibilities physically tested in real-world cradle-to-cradle scenarios. Wind, geothermal, tide and parabolic solar dish systems emphasized and subsidized. Let the big energy companies go after all that natural gas we just found, that will help.

4. Implement tougher CAFE standards, but only up to 30 or 35. After that you're losing return on investment.

5. No more public funding for roads. All of that goes into public transit and rail. Higher gas tax, although that wouldn't even be necessary without the road subsidies.

6. Economic incentives for localization, especially in food production and energy production. Encourage large-scale experiments in permaculture and dry-farming with minimal irrigation. Enforce water recycling in the West and South.

7. Get our troops the hell out of foreign lands. Cut military spending. Illegalize corporate welfare.

8. Negotiate with other nations to implement something similar to Heinberg's Oil Depletion Protocol.

9. Old-World skills and crafts programs introduced into community colleges nationwide.

10. Batten down the hatches.

There, I think I've just made myself the most unpopular leader in U.S. history. Now it's time for my day job...
Lord, here comes the flood
We'll say goodbye to flesh and blood
If again the seas are silent in any still alive
It'll be those who gave their island to survive...
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Re: You're In Charge. What's your plan?

Unread postby Revi » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 11:11:29

I think we need a program to get electric cars on the road. 2 million neighborhood electric vehicles and 1 million more buses on the road would help a lot. Scrap 3 million SUV's and we might be in better shape.

We need to insulate millions of houses now, before winter and install millions of wood stoves, correctly.

We need to get people out of suburbia and into town. Renovate millions of in-town apartments, insulate and get them ready for the people who will be abandoning suburbia and moving into town where they will be driving neighborhood electrics and taking the bus.

Get people back into farming.

That's my plan.
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Re: You're In Charge. What's your plan?

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 11:25:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
')That's my plan.


How will you implement it in your community?
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Re: You're In Charge. What's your plan?

Unread postby Revi » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 11:35:45

Thanks for asking that question, Ludi, we are already trying it out. We just registered our neighborhood electric vehicle:

http://evmaine.org/

We did the Keep Maine Warm program when it existed. We insulated over 30 of our neighbor's houses and handed out CFL's.

We support the local farmer's market and make maple sugar in the spring.

We cut the fossil fuel use in our house by more than half and now use solar and wood for over half our heating (including 2/3rds of our hot water).

http://www.msad54.org/sahs/appliedarts/ ... /index.htm

Our transportation is by bus when we go on long trips, and train when possible.

If we can do this, why can't everyone else?

We don't make much money, our house is an ordinary in-town home and we drive regular cars, except for the NEV.
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Re: You're In Charge. What's your plan?

Unread postby Nano » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 11:58:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'H')ow would you sell the draft to the populace and how would you sell the idea of invasion? How would you pay for invasions?


The draft would sell itself, because it would be presented as a way to escape hideous poverty, kind of like it is now. The economic downturn would have to deepen for this to really take off.

The invasions could start depending on developing levels of unemployment and personal bankrupcies. Troops would be paid minimal wages, but also a share of the 'spoils of war', similar to the Roman system.

These are not a groundbreaking ideas. They are tried and tested in history, which is why I am confident they will work again.

As I said, the only problem is the risk of nuclear escalation. This would have to be prevented by divvying up the world between the interested nuclear powers beforehand. This kind of dealmaking between major powers is also nothing revolutionary.
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Re: You're In Charge. What's your plan?

Unread postby Byron100 » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 12:38:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '
')
You would have to know exactly what I do to understand the depth of my Darwinism. I select children who can succeed based on genetic attributes, and then I teach them what they need to know to succeed.

If you cannot make it, you wash out. That is the way it IS. I don't have to make the decision, the failure to survive the environment makes the decision for me. Its VERY tough, they almost ALL wash out. So it goes in the society at large, almost all will wash out, only a few will survive. I just watch it happen, I don't need to play God here. Nature does the work, always.

Reverse Engineer


Will you be so kind as to expound on this a bit? Do you mean selecting kids to teach, kinda like using triage to only help those worth helping?

Just awful curious as to what you mean by this post, is all. :)
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Re: You're In Charge. What's your plan?

Unread postby joelcolorado » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 12:51:47

VERY SIMPLE: Love your neighbor as yourself.

THat solves it all. Youwill use less energy, wont be a pig, eat less food, share with others, care about the world and planet, make changes that might mean sacrifice personally. OH>>>NO>..I hear ya. NO ONE WILL DO THAT unless forced too.
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Re: You're In Charge. What's your plan?

Unread postby Revi » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 13:49:13

People say that they want change, but do they really? Most people would freak out without highway speed cars. They would rather walk than take the bus. They will starve before they grow a garden.

It isn't going to work very well at all.

We are going to have a very hard time getting people to accept austerity, but it has to happen.

Nature has a plan.

Her plans will trump ours anyway.
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Re: You're In Charge. What's your plan?

Unread postby vilemerchant » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 15:21:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') think we need a program to get electric cars on the road. 2 million neighborhood electric vehicles and 1 million more buses on the road would help a lot. Scrap 3 million SUV's and we might be in better shape.


I absolutely agree with this. Nearly all the auto manufacturers have EVs coming onto the market in the next few years. So, tax the hell out of gasoline cars while making EVs tax free. Use the taxes to expand and improve the electricity grid. Government owned nuke plants, solar plants, wind farms, hydro, coal etc. Subsidize residential solar panels and wind turbines so people can make their own power and feed it into the grid.

Make all government cars EVs and turn them over for resale regularly to get electric cars into the used car market and affordable. Once the automakers have enough EVs designed and the production capacity to supply them on-line we can then ban the sale of new gasoline cars and raise gas taxes.

Get all private transport onto electric and we'll have plenty of oil supply available for the important stuff. Farming, freight and plastics.
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Re: You're In Charge. What's your plan?

Unread postby jlw61 » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 16:23:31

That's it! Run the debt up even faster and if you don't like debt, then tax the hell out of the sheople until the whole damned country bleeds in the streets.

Oh, and don't forget to force a solution on everyone instead of encouraging people to think for themselves. I mean, after all, it's so much better to use a $30,000+ EV that weighs 2,000 lbs to move a 200 lb man down the street than a $9,000 750lb EV moving a 200 lb man down the street. If we can't go over 65mph, we'll die.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vilemerchant', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') think we need a program to get electric cars on the road. 2 million neighborhood electric vehicles and 1 million more buses on the road would help a lot. Scrap 3 million SUV's and we might be in better shape.

I absolutely agree with this. Nearly all the auto manufacturers have EVs coming onto the market in the next few years. So, tax the hell out of gasoline cars while making EVs tax free. Use the taxes to expand and improve the electricity grid. Government owned nuke plants, solar plants, wind farms, hydro, coal etc. Subsidize residential solar panels and wind turbines so people can make their own power and feed it into the grid.

Make all government cars EVs and turn them over for resale regularly to get electric cars into the used car market and affordable. Once the automakers have enough EVs designed and the production capacity to supply them on-line we can then ban the sale of new gasoline cars and raise gas taxes. Get all private transport onto electric and we'll have plenty of oil supply available for the important stuff. Farming, freight and plastics.
When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
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Re: You're In Charge. What's your plan?

Unread postby joelcolorado » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 16:32:52

And the electricity will come from WHERE?????????

I am in coal industry and we are maxed out on frieght. NO MORE room on the railroads. Now what?
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Re: You're In Charge. What's your plan?

Unread postby Quinny » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 16:41:13

Cash no fundamental disagreement but just like to point out that fuel tax in UK is around $6 per gallon and it still hasn't had a sever effect on consumption. Timeline seems about right.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'Y')ou're in charge. You can allocate money in the U.S. any way you want.
I'd like to know 2 things:
1. What's your best-guess Peak Oil time line, meaning, when do you think production decline sets in and we exit this plateau, and what do you see the annual decline rate at?
2. Where do you spend the money.
My answers:
1. Within 12 months, likely (75%), within 24 months, very probable (90%), within 36 months, almost certain (99% confidence interval). Decline rate of 10%, meaning oil production is cut in half no later than 2018. -snip-Please state your premises and your plan.
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Re: You're In Charge. What's your plan?

Unread postby vilemerchant » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 16:41:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jlw61', 'T')hat's it! Run the debt up even faster and if you don't like debt, then tax the hell out of the sheople until the whole damned country bleeds in the streets.
Oh, and don't forget to force a solution on everyone instead of encouraging people to think for themselves. I mean, after all, it's so much better to use a $30,000+ EV that weighs 2,000 lbs to move a 200 lb man down the street than a $9,000 750lb EV moving a 200 lb man down the street. If we can't go over 65mph, we'll die.

When the hell did I mention that these EVs should weigh 2000 pounds lol?
As for Americans thinking for themselves,,, good luck with that!
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Re: You're In Charge. What's your plan?

Unread postby JustaGirl » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 16:59:30

I think it's possible we might hit a new peak in 2010, depending on how the megaprojects pan out & the decline in existing fields. After that I would expect a decline of around 4-5%.

I would implement a nationwide 55 MPH speed limit. Raising the gas tax by $2 and increasing the tax on vehicle sales seems like good ideas too. I would like a way to encourage people to grow some of their own food. Maybe some type of tax credit, although that would have to be done more on a state level I would think.

I'm not sure I agree with closing military bases, except maybe overseas, at least without offering our service members some other government job.

I would also make condoms available for free at every high school. I would also like nurses available to prescribe BCP's, but maybe that is going too far. But to hell with this abstinence only crap. It does not work! No more tax credits for having children, none. You won't be penalized, but you will not be rewarded for having children either.

Other than that, I have no idea. Guess that's why I'm not running for pres :)
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Re: You're In Charge. What's your plan?

Unread postby Quinny » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 17:49:08

There seems to be a fair consensus that fuel tax should rise.

Is it general knowledge that the tories in the UK are proposing fuel subsidies! :(
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Re: You're In Charge. What's your plan?

Unread postby coyote » Mon 08 Sep 2008, 17:53:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustaGirl', 'O')ther than that, I have no idea. Guess that's why I'm not running for pres :)

That's okay, those presidential types don't have any better ideas than we do. Not nearly as good, in fact. :razz:
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