[Barbara]

Any idea on how to answer to this?

"What's the purpose of keeping it secret and doing nothing? *They* will be affected too if we do nothing. *They* can't hide themselves forever in a bunker. So *they* will simply solve the problem when finished to make money over oil."

[Doly]

The main situation when governments keep something secret is when they have no solution. You can find plenty of examples of that in WWII.

[smiley]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ny idea on how to answer to this?

"What's the purpose of keeping it secret and doing nothing? *They* will be affected too if we do nothing. *They* can't hide themselves forever in a bunker. So *they* will simply solve the problem when finished to make money over oil."

[aahala]

I don't understand the use of the word "secret". Secret is something kept from the knowledge of others or shared only confidentially with a few.

It's just common sense that if a finite resource is used, the remaining supply declines and if the process continues long enough the supply will be exhausted.

Information about the amount and useage of oil are widely reported, with tons of information in public view. Not being aware of this information is ignorance, not secrecy and disbeliveing it is denial.

[BabyPeanut]

They wanted to surprise you and now you've ruined it.

[smiley]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hey wanted to surprise you and now you've ruined it.

[GD]

This site has a good FAQ which gives simple explanations as to why we should be taking the issue of decline of oil production seriously.
But until the issue goes mainstream (if ever!) some of us are likely to be seen as fruitcakes or end of the world doomers by our friends and even loved ones.
This is the reward for bringing to attention something that is most likely to be the biggest issue that person (and our civilisation) will ever face!
The aim of this thread (I believe) is to get ideas on how to debunk (or at least get people to think a bit about):
1) “Flat-Earthâ€

[Barbara]

Very good post, GD.
Unfortunately, sometimes you are forced to make the effort, when you're trying to convince parents, close friends, partners and so on!

Anyway, this is something else I had to hear:
- Peak Oil is a scam from US govt to promote war on resources
- TV said there's enough oil to last until 2100. (How can I be more believable than TV???)
- If it's true, so why newspapers doesn't mention it?
- What are going to do the rich and famous?
- Liquified coal will solve it. It's cheap and easy to make.
- My dad/brother/friend/cousin works in an oil company and knows nothing about this.

But the best of all:
-We all must die, sooner or later.

[Windsun]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Barbara', 'A')ny idea on how to answer to this?

"What's the purpose of keeping it secret and doing nothing? *They* will be affected too if we do nothing. *They* can't hide themselves forever in a bunker. So *they* will simply solve the problem when finished to make money over oil."

[GD]

Ok, time to offer a few more of my own. By the way, I'm thinking along the lines of answers that sometimes form questions themselves, therefore getting the PONPB'er to think for themselves about the issue.

5)PONPB: Peak Oil is a scam from US govt to promote war on resources.

5)The fact that production cannot meet demand does not promote anything. It helps explain / understand policy, not promote it.

6)PONPB: [TV said] there's enough oil to last until 2100.

6)The problem is not HOW MUCH oil there is left. The problem is HOW MUCH OIL WE CAN PRODUCE COMPARED TO HOW MUCH OIL IS NEEDED. When there is a shortfall, it gets more expensive.

7)PONPB: [Liquified coal / Methane Hydarates / other fossil fuel] will solve it. It's cheap and easy to make.

7)The real problem is basing our way of life on fossil fuels. Replacing one unsustainable strategy with another only puts the problem back a while. Don't you think we need to pursue a strategy that will last?

PONPB: My dad/brother/friend/cousin works in an oil company and knows nothing about this.

8a)Can he compare how much oil his company is finding nowadays to how much they found in, say the 1950's , 60's and 70's?

8b)Does he know the reserves of all of the oil companies?

9)So what if oil gets more expensive, I think it would be nice to live without cars for a few years.

9a)Expensive oil will leave our econmomy shrinking. Sustained shrinkage will leave our lives in ruins.

9b)Could you live without food for a few years?

This is all for now. I'm also looking into the fallacies of reliance on other / unproven technologies. Suggestions welcomed. Cheers, GD

[Dan1195]

It is less "secret" per se, rather than all influential parties benefit in the short term from ignoring it.

Consuming governments don't want the populace to realize the follow or some of their main policy positions

Oil Companies/Producing companies: want ppl to continue to consume oil as their main fuel source as long as possible. suggesting you need another fuel source now is bad for business in the medium term, as they see it. Yes the oil companies have bought up some alternative tech patents, i.e. solar, but they know thats no replacement for oil.

[ararboin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1')b) SCIENTIFIC CAPABILITY. No single country would be that far ahead of other countries in terms of scientific capability. So if say, America, kept it secret: Japan or a European country would bring it out. And vice-versa.

[maverickdoc]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ararboin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1')b) SCIENTIFIC CAPABILITY. No single country would be that far ahead of other countries in terms of scientific capability. So if say, America, kept it secret: Japan or a European country would bring it out. And vice-versa.

[ararboin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')re you saying the Govt is secretly working on the answer to Peak OIL?

[GD]

The historical precedent is of one nation arriving just before another. The space race and “the bombâ€

[ararboin]

[quote] Wouldn’t it be easier to simply “not develop for profit’s sakeâ€

[Michael_Allison]

Aren't we comparing apples to oranges?

All of the things mentioned here are political and scientific scenarios that no one was really sure was going to happen or that might have been avoided through diplomacy, etc.

Peak oil isn't like that. It's more like a ticking clock that will, inevitably and certainly, strike midnight.

As far as I know, there is no historical precedent. We can make comparisons and tout theories to try to convince people that this is real, but none are really convincing to those that refuse to see the truth of the matter. Never underestimate the human capacity to ignore hard facts in favor of personal psychological comfort.

I'm part of another forum that is working for sanity in our drug laws, mainly medical marijuana. Now, these people are primed to believe in government conspiracies and are acutely aware of the business practices of big oil and pharmaceutical companies, yet 99% of them fail to see the signifigance of peak oil. They offer the same responses one might expect from a group of PTA moms (no offense to PTA moms) living comfortably in the suburbs, blissful in their ignorance.

All we can do is lay out the facts and let people make up their own minds. Any excess zeal will be seen as unstable behavior, at the least, and maybe even outright lunacy. Then, instead of planning for the future, these people will become preoccupied about your mental state and wonder if you're not losing your marbles. That is, needless to say, counterproctive.

[j_bumble]

[quote="GD"][b]1) PONPB: New energy technology is here. But it is being kept secret, whilst money is still to be made out of oil. This ensures MAXIMUM PROFIT is made before our replacement is switched on. Then the future will be “more of the sameâ€

[GD]

I’ll assign a number to these (and add a wee bit extra):

Answer 1d) LOGISTICS. Think of the logistics involved in DEVELOPING FOR MASS USE / DEPLOYING / USING the next technology. Given only a [few] years [maximum] until high prices [start] kill[ing] our businesses, how do we change everything over IN TIME TO SAVE OUR ECONOMY?

10) Suppose that there is a complete substitute for oil and there would be no need to replace the infrastructure at all?

10a) Production plants for this miracle substance would still need to be built and (so far) they aren't.
10b) There doesn’t appear to be any lined up either, it would be pretty big news in the Scientific / Engineering / Investing community wouldn’t it?

11) PONPB: Hydrogen fuel will solve it.

11a) Hydrogen is only a way to store energy (not a fuel) - an energy source is still needed to make hydrogen.
11b) Imagine the load our cars would place on the electricity grid. Imagine all those extra power plants we would need.

And another myth:

12) PONPB: Higher oil prices mean increased exploration.

12a) High price makes no difference if the oil is not there to be found. World Oil discovery peaked in the 1960's therefore production is peaking now.
12b) an example: 1970's price increases resulted in little extra oil being found.

Cheers,
GD

[GD]

12c) "The whole world has now been seismically searched and picked over. Geological knowledge has improved enormously in the past 30 years and it is almost inconceivable now that major fields remain to be found." - Colin Campbell.

13) PONPB: Higher Oil Prices will spur development of alternatives. / We have human ingenuity / market forces: We will invent our way out of any problems. We always have done. We always will.

13a)There is nothing quite like oil for ENERGY DENSITY, CHEAPNESS and VERSATILITY. All current alternatives pose problems because they are either not ENERGY DENSE enough, CHEAP enough or as VERSATILE as oil.
Also, the trouble with things that have not been invented yet is - you cannot rely on unproven technology.

14)PONPB: Higher oil prices mean better technology can increase the amount of oil we can extract from existing wells (URR)

14)We have had over 100 years of improving searching / drilling / extracting technology. Further improvements aren't likely to yield much extra extraction.