How long before the grid goes down?

by **JustaGirl** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 02:23:49

I like polls so I figured I'd start one myself. Hopefully this one hasn't been done recently.

I think we still have another 10 years at least. I'm feeling optimistic today :-D

by **TheDude** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 02:36:48

It is out in Louisiana, for one.

Entergy’s View Outages system

by **Consensi** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 05:31:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustaGirl', 'I') think we still have another 10 years at least. I'm feeling optimistic today

by **VMarcHart** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 08:35:26

The electric output is mostly powered by nuclear and coal. We might hit a bump with NG, which will mostly cause brownouts at peaking time. The electric infrastructure is indirectly dependent on oil, especially O&M. Total collapse is not in my crystal ball, which has been wrong before.

by **DomusAlbion** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 09:50:49

It depends on locale. The Pacific NW of the US and western Canada should be fine. The North East is questionable.

Outside of America? They have electricity? :roll:

by **NeoPeasant** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 10:12:32

We will adapt to increasingly unreliable power, which means among other things not making large investments in refrigerated foods, and relearning passive techniques to stay cool on hot days.

by **vilemerchant** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 10:29:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DomusAlbion', 'O')utside of America? They have electricity?

by **DomusAlbion** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 10:37:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vilemerchant', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DomusAlbion', 'O')utside of America? They have electricity?

by **Consensi** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 10:42:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'T')he electric output is mostly powered by nuclear and coal. We might hit a bump with NG, which will mostly cause brownouts at peaking time. The electric infrastructure is indirectly dependent on oil, especially O&M.

by **Cashmere** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 10:50:05

I love it that, as of right now, 1/3 of people have voted for, "we'll always find a way to keep the lights on."

That's great.

Even among the intelligentsia there is a 33% denial rate.

by **PonyBoy78** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 10:57:00

I tend to think that we'll do whatever is necessary to keep the grid up, but that it won't work in the long term.

I'll take a shot in the dark here (pardon the pun)..
> Troubles begin: within 10 years
> Grid pretty much down more than 75% of the time: within 20 years

by **dunewalker** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 10:57:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Consensi', 'O')n a curious note, what caused the rolling brownouts in California that led to the recall of the Governor ?

by **JustaGirl** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 11:12:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DomusAlbion', 'I')t depends on locale. The Pacific NW of the US and western Canada should be fine. The North East is questionable. Outside of America? They have electricity?

by **DomusAlbion** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 11:16:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustaGirl', 'I') know i'm being an ignorant American

by **JustaGirl** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 11:16:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'I')t is out in Louisiana, for one: Entergy’s View Outages system

by **Dreamtwister** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 12:32:31

Like many things, it totally depends on location.

Some parts of the country are already on the razor's edge, where 1 hot day could shut down an entire region, while other parts will have power decades after the main grid goes down.

by **Tyler_JC** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 13:31:03

GW graph (large)

We are going to see increases in prices and major decreases in consumption well before any kind of "permanent blackout".

California has air conditioners, computers, iPhones, light bulbs, refrigerators, and much of the country's highly electric-dependent computer/tech industry. Moreover, California's population is a low estimate because of all of the illegal immigrants. They use lots of electricity (albeit, less than their native born peers) but aren't counted in the population surveys.

Comparing the United States to Great Britain (cold, cloudy, heavily developed), we use more than twice as much electricity per capita.

We have a lot of conservation options available to us before we have to start eating dinner by candle light in a freezing apartment.

by **vtsnowedin** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 14:01:12

EIA numbers show 50% of our electricity coming from coal. another 20% from Natural gas and 25 % from nuclear and hydro.combined. Just 3% from oil. The grid needs work and updating but its going out completely is remote. If it dose go down it will be due to government stupidity.

Better buy some pv panels.

by **wisconsin_cur** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 14:09:37

Maybe we should Ast the Magic 8 Ball?

How about, "in my lifetime"? That is about as specific as I would want to get... oh and I am in my mid-30's.

by **burtonridr** » Thu 04 Sep 2008, 16:57:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustaGirl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'I')t is out in Louisiana, for one: Entergy’s View Outages system