[PhebaAndThePilgrim]

Good day from Pheba, from the farm:
Energy Unltd., thank you for your interest in my post. I am not as technically savvy as some so I do not post often. I do know farming as I have been involved in agriculture in one form or another for decades.
Buzzard and others answered your question for the most part.
I highly reccomend a study of the history of guano production. The history is fascinating and weird.
Here is an interesting fact to ponder. When our ancestors first stepped foot on the soil of this continent a farmer could stick a shovel in the earth and find 12 to 24 inches of topsoil.
Today the average topsoil depth is 4 to 6 inches. Think about it. We feed billions of people with 4 to 6 inches of topsoil.
I believe it was Richard Heinberg who said that farming is just pouring petroleum on the ground to create food.
I forget the exact detail on this next fact, so somebody can verify for me. But if memory serves I believe it takes earthworms about 500 years to make from 1/2 inch to 1 inch of topsoil.
So I gues we could call topsoil a renewable resource.
But that sure isn't going to save us.
the 160 acres that we raise our cattle on was a crop farm for many years. My husband cropped it until the land played out and his equipment wore out. Prior to my husband's ownership the land went through decades of grazing and cropping in one form or another. The land is just played out. Our farm is similar to most in the state. (and the nation)
We carefully manage the cattle to prevent overgrazing and erosion. We practice intense grazing management. We have the property divided up into small pasture and rotate the cattle heavily during high grazing seasons. We use old big bales, and anything else can find to use in ditches and other places on the farm where we find erosion.
We raise beef cattle to help support us while letting the ground rest and hopefully create a small amount of topsoil during our lifetime. Hopefully we can leave the place a little better than we found it. My husband has worked tirelessly for years to build this farm into something better.
He has planted more trees than I care to think about, and tries to create wildlife areas.
He has planted native grasses, but that is a struggle because the K31 fescue that was imported decades ago has a tendency to crowd out native plants.
This doesn't mean that it is hopeless. But, it does mean that we can not feed 6.6 billion people for much longer.
The one billion people that were fed before petro agriculture were fed from topsoil that was not completely degraded. They were fed with water from water sources that were not being depleted. Check the condition of the two great water aquafers. They were fed from soil that was not chemically depleted of all micronutrients.
And this is important. They were fed utilizing a much higher percentage of the population involved in farming. I don't have the figures before me, but in the year 1900 there were still a lot of people living in rural area. Most of these folk were involved in food production in one way or another.
Today less than two percent of Americans are farmers. Most people that live in rural areas live in house trailers, drive to the city, and their extent of livestock consists of several half starved horses and some rangy looking dogs. (pitbulls and rottweilers being very popular)
However, that total doomer porn being stated, there is some small glimmer of hope. I highly reccomend a DVD called "The Real Dirt on Farmer John". I have eagerly been awaiting the release of this documentary on DVD. The DVD was released today, and can be purchased at a web site called Angelic Organics.
If you are interested in a method of farming that just may save us, I highly reccomend this DVD.
Pheba, from the farm.
PS. When my husband retires we have plans to expand and diversify our farm. We are planning on raising chickens, utilizing chicken tractors. We can move the tractors into fields the cattle have recently vacated. The chickens scratch in the cattle manure, consuming pest insects, and other nutritious matter, while increasing field fertility.
The problem most farmers have today is time and money. The age old problem. When a person has the money, they usually don't have the time and vice versa. Right now hubby still works. He is a carpenter. he just doesn't have the time, and I can't manage chickens by myself.
We raise blackberries, and hubby spends hours all summer picking them. The only problem I find with blackberries is that I can not hang out my laundry. The birds eat some of the berries and dive bomb my laundry. they have a habit of targeting the most expensive item on the clothesline.

[mattduke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')oday, Citigroup's stock price is 44% lower than five years ago. Compare that with Mosaic, with a stock price appreciation of 1 200% over five years, and, for PotashCorp, an appreciation of 1 300% over five years. If that were not enough, Citigroup's market value today is a rather modest $120bn, roughly equal to the value of a combined Mosaic and PotashCorp.

[ohanian]

Phosphate is the NEW GOLD!
I think I'm getting a phosphate fever.

And the only way the price can go is UP UP UP UP!
[web]http://www.abc.net.au/rural/news/content/200803/s2192532.htm[/web]

[kpeavey]

I work for a contractor that services the PCS plants in White Springs: Swift Creek and Suwannee River. Yesterday we finished the annual shutdown at Swift Creek, 2 days ahead of schedule. I have today OFF!!! We start the Suwannee River shutdown on the 12th, will go on for a couple of weeks. The plants are having trouble maintaining production levels as the ore quality is diminishing after 45+ years of operation. They are getting more clay in the ore, which is choking up the equipment. Nothing that can't be solved, but to prevent and minimize down time we've been increasing our crew size. I've seen other contractors with larger crews as well. Talking with some plant workers, they are getting plenty of overtime. Lots of shiny hats around, meaning some new hiring going on.

What I'm seeing at these plants is an effort to increase production levels. There are sections that have been shut down for a couple of years being brought back online. While this means more work and more money for me, I've been working since January with about 10 days off. We'll be working on the DFP (chicken feed ingredient) reactors in July. As all the ore mined at this location is used for phosphoric acid production, ore will be brought in from South Carolina by the train load to supply the DFP operation.

There is talk of the place mining out in 5 years, but rumors such as this have been around for years. One solution is to mine 27k acres north of the highway. Some guy owns 100k acres and is willing to sell all the land, not just part of it. Negotiations are going on for acquiring the land and setting up shop. One obstacle is the highway itself. The company has proposed redirecting the highway, if that gives you an idea of the value of the ore.

The mines are open pit, dug with drag lines. One drag line will dig about an acre in a day, there are 4 of these machines up here. 27k acres would be enough to keep the operation going for another 20+ years. It's a hell of a thing to see.

I work down south at a couple of Mosaic plants a couple times a year. Mosaic has bought up most of the small operations. They run a tight ship. Some of the plants down there dwarf the PCS operations up here. I'm not in touch with the people at the Mosaic plants so I have no scuttlebut to offer.

[perdition79]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kpeavey', 'I') work down south at a couple of Mosaic plants a couple times a year. Mosaic has bought up most of the small operations. They run a tight ship. Some of the plants down there dwarf the PCS operations up here. I'm not in touch with the people at the Mosaic plants so I have no scuttlebut to offer.

[SoylentGreen]

That doesnt suprise me. The American lending system's foundation is built on top of a collapsing ,overflowing super-mega septic tank.

[lowem]

And you can buy both Potash and Mosaic and more, with one ETF that is called MOO. I kid you not

And yes, MOO has been doing better than C (Citigroup) lately. C has fallen off the proverbial cliff.

[mattduke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lowem', 'A')nd you can buy both Potash and Mosaic and more, with one ETF that is called MOO. I kid you not

And yes, MOO has been doing better than C (Citigroup) lately. C has fallen off the proverbial cliff.

[copious.abundance]

Looks like there's more fertilizer on the way after all.

--> LINKY DINK <--
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Major new order for fertiliser complex in Algeria 9/1/2008
The Algerian company Sorfert Algerie Spa has commissioned Uhde to provide comprehensive licensing, engineering and supply services as part of a contract to build a large fertiliser complex in Arzew, some 350km north-west of the Algerian capital Algiers.

Sorfert Algerie is investing some US$2billion in the new fertiliser complex, which will comprise two ammonia plants with respective production capacities of 2,200 tonnes/day and a urea plant with a production capacity of 3,450 tonnes/day. The plant complex will also include numerous offsites and auxiliaries, such as the required storage and shipping facilities. Plant completion is scheduled for 2011.

"In terms of its size, this is a landmark contract for our company and not only reiterates the immense trust shown by the fertiliser industry in Uhde and its leading-edge plants, but also underlines our excellent partnership with customers in the region,” said Mr Klaus Schneiders, Chairman of Uhde's Executive Board.[...]

[copious.abundance]

And guess what? They're gonna build a new one in Indonesia too!
--> EL LINK-O <--
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')on 1 Sep 11:57 AM Indonesia's Pupuk Kaltim to Build New $US740MLN Urea Plant
JAKARTA, Sept 1 Asia Pulse - State-owned fertilizer company PT Pupuk Kaltim (PKT) plans to build a new urea fertilizer plant at a cost of US$740 million. The construction of its fifth urea fertilizer plant would start in mid-2009 and be completed in 2011, the newspaper Bisnis Indonesia said.

The new facility would increase the production capacity of PT Kaltim to 3.5 million tons, from 2.2 million tons at present, its president Hidayat Nyakman told the paper. Hidayat said the company would put up US$190 million of the total cost and that bank loans and bond funds would cover the rest

[copious.abundance]

And if that weren't enough, there's another one about to be built in Tanzania by an Indian company!
--> ZE LINK <--
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Indian firm to build giant fertilizer plant2008-03-24 10:24:50 By Penzi Nyamungumi, VPO, Mumbai:
An Indian firm has embarked on a USD 505 million (around 600bn/-) comprehensive strategic investment in the agricultural sector aimed at giving the country`s backbone sector a new push through manufacturing of fertilizers from gas. [...]

Mehta said the proposal envisaged converting the gas into ammonia, from which urea would be made and such conversion is probably the best way to utilize the gas for the betterment of the Tanzania economy.

"It would bring investments of about USD 505 million, and generate direct employment for up to 275 people for operating the facilities``, he said. Mehta also added that the local availability of urea would improve agriculture yields, bringing in more revenue into the hands of farmers.

He further said foreign exchange of about USD 140 million would be generated every year through export of surplus urea and ammonia to neighbouring countries, which are all dependent on imports as there is no plant for manufacture of fertilizers in the region.[...]

[Starvid]

Gee, stop the presses, the market responds to price signals!