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Why is oil tanking during a hurricane?

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Why is oil tanking during a hurricane?

Unread postby PeakingAroundtheCorner » Mon 01 Sep 2008, 10:42:52

I would just like to get you guys' thoughts on why we went from an open nearly $2 up to 117 to being down nearly $5 just as the hurricane is pounding the GoM production facilities?

We're about to break throgh the 200-day moving average and what happens if it breaks that resistance?

I just don't get it.
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Re: Why is oil tanking during a hurricane?

Unread postby firestarter » Mon 01 Sep 2008, 10:50:41

Speculators don't only get it wrong on the way up.
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Re: Why is oil tanking during a hurricane?

Unread postby PeakingAroundtheCorner » Mon 01 Sep 2008, 10:54:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('firestarter', 'S')peculators don't only get it wrong on the way up.


Please explain.
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Re: Why is oil tanking during a hurricane?

Unread postby firestarter » Mon 01 Sep 2008, 11:00:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakingAroundtheCorner', '[')quote="firestarter"Speculators don't only get it wrong on the way up.
Please explain.[/quote]
Traders are SPECULATING that there has been little damage to the energy system from the storm, thus rampant selling. This is not a directional bet on KNOWN fundamentals. Perhaps they'll be proven correct in their BETS, but I suspect we won't know for sure for several days. In short, WRONG speculation cuts both ways, hence the constant oscillation regarding prices.
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Re: Why is oil tanking during a hurricane?

Unread postby CelticCross » Mon 01 Sep 2008, 11:07:53

With refineries and the LOOP down we are using less foreign oil. If we can't take it the rest of the world will have excess supply.

US gas prices should go up even as world oil prices decline.
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Re: Why is oil tanking during a hurricane?

Unread postby BigTex » Mon 01 Sep 2008, 11:09:04

For those with conviction based upon their understanding of fundamentals, this may be yet another great buying opportunity.

For speculators, this must be a nightmare.
:)
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Re: Why is oil tanking during a hurricane?

Unread postby davep » Mon 01 Sep 2008, 11:18:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'F')or those with conviction based upon their understanding of fundamentals, this may be yet another great buying opportunity. For speculators, this must be a nightmare.

Agreed
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Re: Why is oil tanking during a hurricane?

Unread postby firestarter » Mon 01 Sep 2008, 11:23:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'F')or those with conviction based upon their understanding of fundamentals, this may be yet another great buying opportunity. For speculators, this must be a nightmare.
Agreed

Some speculators--shorts--are licking their chops.
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Re: Why is oil tanking during a hurricane?

Unread postby BigTex » Mon 01 Sep 2008, 11:31:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('firestarter', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'F')or those with conviction based upon their understanding of fundamentals, this may be yet another great buying opportunity.For speculators, this must be a nightmare.
Agreed
Some speculators--shorts--are licking their chops.

Over the course of the next few years (and beyond), obviously there will be more upward price pressure on oil than downward price pressure (I don't see another 1980s glut coming), so playing momentum downward would scare me.

Sort of like playing downward momentum on an oxygen or potable water trade. I might be able to get into shorting Hummers or something like that, though.
:)
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Re: Why is oil tanking during a hurricane?

Unread postby MD » Mon 01 Sep 2008, 11:38:01

Never give up! Never surrender!
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: Why is oil tanking during a hurricane?

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 01 Sep 2008, 11:52:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'N')ever give up! Never surrender!

Alrighty then I am going to go watch Galaxy Quest and get away from this Gustave Gloomfest for a couple hours ;)
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Why is oil tanking during a hurricane?

Unread postby CarlosFerreira » Mon 01 Sep 2008, 12:14:07

Most pressure will probably be upwards - there was a steep climb, some descent, and not it's holding despite the hurricanes in GoM because it has climbed too high. Futures are falling, but not much.

Russia invades Ossetia, Hurricanes damaging production facilities, and still it holds? It was probably too high, and everyone got cold feet...
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Re: Why is oil tanking during a hurricane?

Unread postby Iaato » Mon 01 Sep 2008, 12:17:18

Galaxy Quest was a very entertaining movie.

I have never seen a hurricane make landfall where the MSM didn't downplay the damage for the first 36 hours and suggest that damage wasn't as bad as suggested. I've been through a few, and you can't really tell about the damage until you start moving around on the ground afterwards.

Speculators as a herd are idiots.
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Re: Why is oil tanking during a hurricane?

Unread postby CelticCross » Mon 01 Sep 2008, 12:34:07

Gulf refineries process around 6.4 MBD and much of that is shut down.

Our Gulf production is about 2.36 MBD

For the time being we are not taking as much oil from the world markets as we normally would.

So, if the world oil market is currently over-supplied by even 2 MBD, why would anyone expect the price of oil to go up in the short term?
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Re: Why is oil tanking during a hurricane?

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Mon 01 Sep 2008, 12:43:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CelticCross', 'S')o, if the world oil market is currently over-supplied by even 2 MBD, why would anyone expect the price of oil to go up in the short term?


The hole in your theory is that natural gas, gasoline, and heating oil are also down sharply today.
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Re: Why is oil tanking during a hurricane?

Unread postby CelticCross » Mon 01 Sep 2008, 16:48:56

I believe we import a lot of natural gas and gasoline in the gulf ports as well. I am not sure about heating oil.
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