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I want it to happen

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.
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Re: I want it to happen

Unread postby vilemerchant » Mon 25 Aug 2008, 19:50:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Spanktron9', 'J')
I have thought quite a bit that those with current or recent military experience, especially spec-ops or small unit specialists. They would have a strong advantage physically, mentally and economically. These individuals have been hardened to enviromental hardship, have useful skills in scavenging, field medicine, security, recon, base defense. etc. Plus they fully appreciate the power of teamwork and the importance of unit integrity (working toward a common goal). I wonder if surviving communities won't "hire" some of these individuals for security in return for food, women, etc. Doesn't seem implausible.


I think these kind of people would be absolutely hopeless. Generally most of these guys wouldn't even get out of bed unless there was a corporal yelling at them, they do what they're told because they get 3 square meals a day, not because they're some kind of super-motivated survivalist that would be any use at all outside of the military.
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Re: I want it to happen

Unread postby joelcolorado » Mon 25 Aug 2008, 19:58:39

Just keep thinking that too.
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Re: I want it to happen

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 25 Aug 2008, 20:35:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '
')Anyhow, I'll make my latest bet for Tax Time next year.


Oh yeah, right. The government will collapse by tax time next year?

:roll:

Is that really what you're saying?

Unemployment is probably nowhere near Great Depression levels (it was approx 25% then, you know) - did the government collapse during the Great Depression?

I guess, I'm just wondering how you figure TSHTF so soon....
Last edited by Ludi on Mon 25 Aug 2008, 20:40:53, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: I want it to happen

Unread postby MadScientist » Mon 25 Aug 2008, 20:40:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vilemerchant', '
')I think these kind of people would be absolutely hopeless. Generally most of these guys wouldn't even get out of bed unless there was a corporal yelling at them, they do what they're told because they get 3 square meals a day, not because they're some kind of super-motivated survivalist that would be any use at all outside of the military.



Have to agree with joel for once (!), this statement is false on every count.
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Re: I want it to happen

Unread postby Revi » Mon 25 Aug 2008, 20:48:04

I don't think the government will fail by tax time. There's no way we could be so lucky. There are two things that won't go away, and they are death and taxes.

The whole thing is in trouble, but there is no way it could collapse so fast.
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Re: I want it to happen

Unread postby Jenab6 » Mon 25 Aug 2008, 22:45:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') don't think the government will fail by tax time. There's no way we could be so lucky. There are two things that won't go away, and they are death and taxes. The whole thing is in trouble, but there is no way it could collapse so fast.

There might always be someone demanding you pay him taxes, or whatever else he chooses to call it: extortion, tribute, required donations, protection fees. But that doesn't mean that the fellow doing the most convincing demanding tomorrow will be the same as the fellow doing it today.

For example, I expect that in a few decades, Arizona, NM, Socal, and Westex will be fiefs of Mexico. The whole area will promptly turn to a desert of sand and rusted metal stuff, at which the Mexicans will begin reaching further into the American heartland. This expansion has no diplomatic solution and requires a military answer from the Americans, or else it'll be death that we are paying, instead of taxes.
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Re: I want it to happen

Unread postby Spanktron9 » Tue 26 Aug 2008, 00:10:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vilemerchant', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Spanktron9', 'J')
I have thought quite a bit that those with current or recent military experience, especially spec-ops or small unit specialists. They would have a strong advantage physically, mentally and economically. These individuals have been hardened to enviromental hardship, have useful skills in scavenging, field medicine, security, recon, base defense. etc. Plus they fully appreciate the power of teamwork and the importance of unit integrity (working toward a common goal). I wonder if surviving communities won't "hire" some of these individuals for security in return for food, women, etc. Doesn't seem implausible.


I think these kind of people would be absolutely hopeless. Generally most of these guys wouldn't even get out of bed unless there was a corporal yelling at them, they do what they're told because they get 3 square meals a day, not because they're some kind of super-motivated survivalist that would be any use at all outside of the military.


Are you serious? Do you have any idea the kind of SELF discipline, sacrifice and dedication to duty it takes to even become a spec-op soldier? Let alone make a career out of it?

Those individuals who succeed in Spec-ops possess all of the skills that just about any business would seek in high level sales and executive management.

Spec-ops go through a triple-volunteer system. Because they volunteer for that MOS, they can be subjected to extreme training that would otherwise fall outside code. But since they can "quit" anytime and go back to regular duty, they are choosing to endure such training.
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Re: I want it to happen

Unread postby vilemerchant » Tue 26 Aug 2008, 02:58:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Spanktron9', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vilemerchant', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Spanktron9', 'J')
I have thought quite a bit that those with current or recent military experience, especially spec-ops or small unit specialists. They would have a strong advantage physically, mentally and economically. These individuals have been hardened to enviromental hardship, have useful skills in scavenging, field medicine, security, recon, base defense. etc. Plus they fully appreciate the power of teamwork and the importance of unit integrity (working toward a common goal). I wonder if surviving communities won't "hire" some of these individuals for security in return for food, women, etc. Doesn't seem implausible.


I think these kind of people would be absolutely hopeless. Generally most of these guys wouldn't even get out of bed unless there was a corporal yelling at them, they do what they're told because they get 3 square meals a day, not because they're some kind of super-motivated survivalist that would be any use at all outside of the military.


Are you serious? Do you have any idea the kind of SELF discipline, sacrifice and dedication to duty it takes to even become a spec-op soldier? Let alone make a career out of it?

Those individuals who succeed in Spec-ops possess all of the skills that just about any business would seek in high level sales and executive management.

Spec-ops go through a triple-volunteer system. Because they volunteer for that MOS, they can be subjected to extreme training that would otherwise fall outside code. But since they can "quit" anytime and go back to regular duty, they are choosing to endure such training.


Yeah special forces are certainly a different breed. Perhaps I was wrong on this topic, but I certainly believe a lot of people in the military live in a very sheltered world.

My only experience was as a reservist in the Australian Army. The regulars I met and trained with were often some of the most pathetic individuals I've ever met. Very good at being infantry, just had absolutely no idea about anything else.
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Re: I want it to happen

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Tue 26 Aug 2008, 03:36:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')Oh yeah, right. The government will collapse by tax time next year?

:roll:

Is that really what you're saying?

Unemployment is probably nowhere near Great Depression levels (it was approx 25% then, you know) - did the government collapse during the Great Depression?

I guess, I'm just wondering how you figure TSHTF so soon....


I guess I need to be a little more clear. I think Tax Time will accelerate the downward slide so its apparent to many more people than we have right now on the PO board.

As you watch the revenues slide in all the major industries from Financial Services to Cars, you have to figure next year's Tax Revenues will be nowhere NEAR what last year's were. Deficit spending is getting progressively more difficult to engineer as other central banks balk at buying more treasury notes. So if you actually were going to meet Government Payroll, the only way would be to REALLY just Print Money, not just inflate the M3. With as many Government workers as we have, including the Soldiers, this would hit Main Street as Inflation almost Immediately, and compounded on the systemic inflation going on now due to scarcity in the oil supply, it would then start to run out of control. This would be OBVIOUS, and then Panic starts to set in.

Other solution of course would be to start laying off Government Workers and Soldiers in droves, but do that and the ability of the Government to administer and control becomes nil, so they won't do that.

No, the Government did not collapse with 25% Unemployment in the Great Depression, but of course there was the difference then that Oil was still plentiful right here on Home Soil; its not the case this time around. Also as mentioned in another thread, at the time the American population was still significantly Rural based, and subsistence farming for the population extant at that time was more possible than it is now. Today's population will have a harder time adjusting to massive unemployment than that population did.

In any event, I don't see this "Tax Time" scenario being the Instant Death of the US Government, any more than the currency collapse in Argentina in 2001 ended that Nation or Government. However, it certainly quite rapidly turned Buenos Aires into a Hell Hole from the Middle Class Sining Star of South America it once was. I'm sure many of you read the Blog from FerFal detailing his life since that crash.

At SOME point here we will Tip Over the Edge. I thought it would happen after Bear Stearns, I was wrong. I could be wrong on this one also, but it seems like the next real big shock to the economy. A massive shortfall in Tax Revenues will put a lot of stress on an already over stressed house of cards.

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Re: I want it to happen

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Tue 26 Aug 2008, 04:05:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Spanktron9', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vilemerchant', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Spanktron9', 'J')
I have thought quite a bit that those with current or recent military experience, especially spec-ops or small unit specialists. They would have a strong advantage physically, mentally and economically. These individuals have been hardened to enviromental hardship, have useful skills in scavenging, field medicine, security, recon, base defense. etc. Plus they fully appreciate the power of teamwork and the importance of unit integrity (working toward a common goal). I wonder if surviving communities won't "hire" some of these individuals for security in return for food, women, etc. Doesn't seem implausible.


I think these kind of people would be absolutely hopeless. Generally most of these guys wouldn't even get out of bed unless there was a corporal yelling at them, they do what they're told because they get 3 square meals a day, not because they're some kind of super-motivated survivalist that would be any use at all outside of the military.


Are you serious? Do you have any idea the kind of SELF discipline, sacrifice and dedication to duty it takes to even become a spec-op soldier? Let alone make a career out of it?

Those individuals who succeed in Spec-ops possess all of the skills that just about any business would seek in high level sales and executive management.

Spec-ops go through a triple-volunteer system. Because they volunteer for that MOS, they can be subjected to extreme training that would otherwise fall outside code. But since they can "quit" anytime and go back to regular duty, they are choosing to endure such training.


Well first off, there are not huge numbers of retired "Spec Ops" floating around the society. As you yourself indicate, to even get this kind of training, you are selected out several times, and few make it through. The few you get out are extremely well trained hunting dogs basically. If they enjoy hunting and killing enough, they end up working for Halliburton as Soldiers of Fortune, or some other shadow organization.

No doubt, such people will be employed in Private Armies, but they won't be floating around the typical deprived community of say Columbus Ohio. Columbus becomes a version of Buenos Aires, corrupt cops looking for bribes and typical engineers and architects packing heat to get to work and hopefully keep from getting carjacked along the way.

Out on the farms around Columbus, the farmers will have to band together if they want to keep growing stuff, they will develop their own private security forces, probably composed of some National Guardsmen, some State Troopers and a few sons of farmers who get a rifle dropped in their hands and are told to sit upstairs in the house with the gun pointed out the window and to Shoot to Kill anything that moves that is not somebody they know. I find it unlikely that an Army of former Spec Ops is going to make a raid here, and if they do they probably are toast because this is NOT what they were trained for, and besides they would be vastly outnumbered.

Certainly if you have this training you could be a BIG help to your community. As a Trained Hunting Dog, you have great value, and you will be fed accordingly. I would not however expect such folks to end up in charge of anything, folks with this kind of mindset aren't usually the brightest bulbs in the box. They tend to be obsessed with being tougher than everyone else, being capable of extreme violence and being able themselves to withstand extreme pain and deprivation. Good for survival in some situations of course, but this situation demands some diplomacy, something a Spec Ops person is notoriously incapable of :-)

I would be happy to have a Spec Ops person as one of my community, just as I think having a Rottweiler or Pit Bull would be handy to have around. MOST of the time however, such people are best kept on a very short leash, they just are too dangerous and unstable to let run wild.

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Re: I want it to happen

Unread postby vilemerchant » Tue 26 Aug 2008, 04:08:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'S')o if you actually were going to meet Government Payroll, the only way would be to REALLY just Print Money, not just inflate the M3. With as many Government workers as we have, including the Soldiers, this would hit Main Street as Inflation almost Immediately, and compounded on the systemic inflation going on now due to scarcity in the oil supply, it would then start to run out of control. This would be OBVIOUS, and then Panic starts to set in.


What scarcity in the oil supply? Do you know of any countries or even any gas stations that want to have petrolium products but can't get any? Oil production is not yet in obvious decline, but thanks to the financial clusterfkuck in the US, demand is. There won't be any oil supply problems any time soon. The eurozone is in recession, America is probably in recession, huge demand destruction.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')At SOME point here we will Tip Over the Edge. I thought it would happen after Bear Stearns, I was wrong. I could be wrong on this one also, but it seems like the next real big shock to the economy. A massive shortfall in Tax Revenues will put a lot of stress on an already over stressed house of cards.


You're right here but it probably won't happen for a while yet. It doesn't matter if America can't pay their bills, they just run up the foreign debt higher and higher. The rest of the world either hasn't realised or is too scared to mention that America will soon be unable to repay its debts. It'd be like trying to tell the school bully that he owes you a dollar and you'd like it back now.
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Re: I want it to happen

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Tue 26 Aug 2008, 04:43:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vilemerchant', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'S')o if you actually were going to meet Government Payroll, the only way would be to REALLY just Print Money, not just inflate the M3. With as many Government workers as we have, including the Soldiers, this would hit Main Street as Inflation almost Immediately, and compounded on the systemic inflation going on now due to scarcity in the oil supply, it would then start to run out of control. This would be OBVIOUS, and then Panic starts to set in.


What scarcity in the oil supply? Do you know of any countries or even any gas stations that want to have petrolium products but can't get any? Oil production is not yet in obvious decline, but thanks to the financial clusterfkuck in the US, demand is. There won't be any oil supply problems any time soon. The eurozone is in recession, America is probably in recession, huge demand destruction.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')At SOME point here we will Tip Over the Edge. I thought it would happen after Bear Stearns, I was wrong. I could be wrong on this one also, but it seems like the next real big shock to the economy. A massive shortfall in Tax Revenues will put a lot of stress on an already over stressed house of cards.


You're right here but it probably won't happen for a while yet. It doesn't matter if America can't pay their bills, they just run up the foreign debt higher and higher. The rest of the world either hasn't realised or is too scared to mention that America will soon be unable to repay its debts. It'd be like trying to tell the school bully that he owes you a dollar and you'd like it back now.


The scarcity isn't manifested as a shortage (yet), its manifested in the price. The fact its still available to buy doesn't mean people can afford to buy it. You think the price will go DOWN a whole lot so it does become affordable again? It might short term, but soon as it does and people start buying again, the price goes right back up.

Any product BARELY able to keep up with the demand is by DEFINITON scarce. Although demand destruction has kept oil from going short at gas stations so far, its still priced up at such a point it is scarce from the point of view of the consumer, because you cannot afford to buy much of it. Its not going to decrease in price tremendously, because in reality you can't actually produce more than the current population would consume if the price was low. The only way that happens is a vast decrease in population, which happens eventually but not overnight of course. I'd project out a generation on this one.

I am quite sure all the foreign banks holding bad American Paper are quite aware it cannot be paid off, which is why they to this point keep buying further issues of debt. However, this does appear to be slowing as each of these banks themselves have monetary imbalances. The National Bank of China is not a Cornucopia, and they can't continue buying debt without it affecting their own economy. Absolutely, all the foreign banks know that if the US Treasury goes Bankrupt, they also go bankrupt as well. So they are trying to prop it up, but they ALSO are running out of real production of wealth with which to do this. OF COURSE they don't want to admit it or make it explicit, unfortunately you cannot in perpetuity keep issuing irredeemable debt and rolling it over. If you could do that, nobody would ever go bankrupt, you could just get another credit card to sharge up all your expenditrues from the first card, and so on. Which of course is what individuals with credit cards have done, but the credit is locking up for them, and by extension it locks up as well for the larger institutions doing the same thing. You see it across the societies all over the world as the houses go into foreclosure in Britain, the US, Australia and the EU. Not so obvious yet in China because their debt is not in the private housing market so much, its in the factories they bult over the last 10 years. That debt is bad debt ALSO. Those factories won;t be selling many good at Walmart next year, inventories will rise and they will put out of work many Chinese. And so then, the Chinese cannot buy the debt we issue, whether they want to or not, whether they fear it or not.

The Central Bankers know all this of course, and they keep coming up with new ways to recycle the debt and rescale it, its quite remarkable really how they are doing this. However, a Tipping Point will occur, just its not certain what or when it will be. I finger Tax Time here in the US next year as a good Focal Point. I could be wrong of course.

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Re: I want it to happen

Unread postby vilemerchant » Tue 26 Aug 2008, 05:28:59

Good post. It's got me thinking :)
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Re: I want it to happen

Unread postby Farknight » Tue 26 Aug 2008, 09:08:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')eah special forces are certainly a different breed. Perhaps I was wrong on this topic, but I certainly believe a lot of people in the military live in a very sheltered world.

My only experience was as a reservist in the Australian Army. The regulars I met and trained with were often some of the most pathetic individuals I've ever met. Very good at being infantry, just had absolutely no idea about anything else.


Years ago while still in Law Enforecement I arrested a drunken pool service cleaner guy in a pick-up. He turned out to be Russian. I thoroughly searched him, handcuffed him behind his back, double locked and secured in the back seat cage for transport. Along the way the guy handed the handcuffs back to me under the cage hole as I drove. We then had a great conversation as he also showed me the knife he had secreted in his ?

Anyway he was former Spetsnaz and I have never had anyone else other than an extremely anorexic (and totally insane) young women with wrists like a twig, get the handcuffs off. Double locked hinged S&W cuffs are impossible. This guy had BIG wrists. Luckily he was a cool guy who, like many Russians, liked his Vodka. I never did see how he did it as he would say he'd be killed if he showed any "secrets", even in Amerika. He seemed dead serious on this point.
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Re: I want it to happen

Unread postby joelcolorado » Tue 26 Aug 2008, 09:17:02

There is one thing that soldiers possess that most ppl do not. The ability to pull the trigger on another human without thinking about it. Hesitation kills.

I would love to show you just what it is really like. I know the men who were on my kill team would take you out in two minutes and these guys are like me, getting older but still possess the will.
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Re: I want it to happen

Unread postby MadScientist » Tue 26 Aug 2008, 09:27:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'W')ell first off, there are not huge numbers of retired "Spec Ops" floating around the society. As you yourself indicate, to even get this kind of training, you are selected out several times, and few make it through. The few you get out are extremely well trained hunting dogs basically. If they enjoy hunting and killing enough, they end up working for Halliburton as Soldiers of Fortune, or some other shadow organization.

No doubt, such people will be employed in Private Armies, but they won't be floating around the typical deprived community of say Columbus Ohio. Columbus becomes a version of Buenos Aires, corrupt cops looking for bribes and typical engineers and architects packing heat to get to work and hopefully keep from getting carjacked along the way.

Out on the farms around Columbus, the farmers will have to band together if they want to keep growing stuff, they will develop their own private security forces, probably composed of some National Guardsmen, some State Troopers and a few sons of farmers who get a rifle dropped in their hands and are told to sit upstairs in the house with the gun pointed out the window and to Shoot to Kill anything that moves that is not somebody they know. I find it unlikely that an Army of former Spec Ops is going to make a raid here, and if they do they probably are toast because this is NOT what they were trained for, and besides they would be vastly outnumbered.

Certainly if you have this training you could be a BIG help to your community. As a Trained Hunting Dog, you have great value, and you will be fed accordingly. I would not however expect such folks to end up in charge of anything, folks with this kind of mindset aren't usually the brightest bulbs in the box. They tend to be obsessed with being tougher than everyone else, being capable of extreme violence and being able themselves to withstand extreme pain and deprivation. Good for survival in some situations of course, but this situation demands some diplomacy, something a Spec Ops person is notoriously incapable of :-)

I would be happy to have a Spec Ops person as one of my community, just as I think having a Rottweiler or Pit Bull would be handy to have around. MOST of the time however, such people are best kept on a very short leash, they just are too dangerous and unstable to let run wild.

you lose a lot of credibility (in my eyes at least) when you post stuff like this that has no basis in reality. How many well trained ex military people do you know? Were you ever in spec ops? Are you aware that most spec op teams are specifically trained in diplomacy? The green berets are actually primarily diplomats. Ever hear of "winning hearts and minds"?

My point is that although some people on this thread grossly misundertand the training level and capability of US soldiers, the original comment was right:
They will be a huge asset to threat assessment, security, and training of a post peak community compared to J6P. As an adversary, the biggest mistake you can make is to assume they are incompetent or "dogs".

bottom line is that these guys have a skillset made for a post collapse world. Things like situational awareness, courage to act in the face of fear, willingness to pull the trigger, woodscraft, survival, etc etc etc.
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Re: I want it to happen

Unread postby joelcolorado » Tue 26 Aug 2008, 09:36:32

Now for the voice of reason. THe good news is that there are so many guns in america. This willmake forming community protection very easy as everyone has a gun and can help. Might even be better than cops now as each person will be responsible for safety like in Israel. Most ppl carry guns there and all have machine guns in their homes but very little crime if any involving guns. BECAUSE they realize its them against the world.

Once we realize that its us against the criminals, we will sort them out, hang them high and clean up america. I would bet that in post peak, crime will go down as very little bullshit will be tolerated. No long ass trials for murderers or drug addicts or criminals caught in the act. Will be banned to outter limits of the territories or executed. We will have no time for crooks. And ppl will respond and crime will go down as they will know that you mess up you die.
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Re: I want it to happen

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 26 Aug 2008, 10:13:45

Joel,

I was about to add the same thought: regardless of (s)kill set there will always be the need for leadership to effectively meet any challenge. In that regards I'm fairly confident in what our society has to offer along those lines. Despite all our faults and weaknesses we do have the ability to effectively organize in small groups.

Shanny...sorry to hear about your pup. And yes, taking life does degrade the soul even when the action is necessary. I've put down many animals for one reason or another. Always unsettling. Imagine what it does to the sane when forced to take human life. But choices may be forced upon us, perhaps, and each will have to make such decisions for themselves.

On a lighter note (?) just read about the first school district in the US (in Texas, of course) to allow concealed carry by some of their teachers in a K-12 school. We all adjust to changing times…just some of us do it faster than others. Got my concealed carry permit course scheduled for Sept. Probably won't ever need it but it will allow some piece of mind...something I appreciate more as I age.
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Re: I want it to happen

Unread postby joelcolorado » Tue 26 Aug 2008, 10:27:03

I used to trap animals as a young boy in high school which involves shooting animals in your traps. Never bothered me but once I got home from overseas and what I saw, I could not do it again I still hunt but never kill much. Can get me one duck or goose and then feel bad afterward. Or deer hunt. I love the hunt but after the kill, its just not there for me.

Taking another humans life is way beyond what you can imagine no matter the circumstances. You are ending someones life forever and have to answer to God for that for sure. They never get a chance to have a wife and kids and grandkids and who knows but that child would have been a great scientist or healer or inventor and save society as a whole. Heavy load
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Re: I want it to happen

Unread postby MadScientist » Tue 26 Aug 2008, 10:50:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', ' ') Got my concealed carry permit course scheduled for Sept. Probably won't ever need it but it will allow some piece of mind

good idea. I suggest carrying it everyday. If you are going to carry a handgun and hope to use it effectively it has to be a well worn tool you are comfortable with. Think of a tool you are "expert" with. That's what a gun has to be too. Another nice benefit of carrying daily is it helps you build awareness.

This video on Force continium with lethal weapons is essential to understand as the justice system will expect you to prove your understanding of it should you ever be forced to kill or injure someone. Zombies, of course, you can shoot right away :).
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