by steam_cannon » Tue 15 Jan 2008, 18:06:58
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'S')team Cannon, from the few maps I've seen on predicted climate changes, it shows rainfall increasing here in the north part of Arkansas and Missouri. I haven't followed that issue very much though.
Yeah, the short term outlook may mean more rain and Arkansas has seen more rain. But higher average temperatures also means faster evaporation, worse dry spells and drought. So precipitation is only half of the story. There will be states that will be worse off, but from what I've read I don't want to invest my efforts into this area.
Here are a few links...[spoil]
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Precipitation VS Evaporation
This map shows increases in precipitation near Arkansas. But global warming is also bringing higher evaporation rates.
Increases precipitation may not do much good in the face of persistently higher evaporation.Hay shortage squeezes horse owners (2007)
"There's no hay because of last summer's drought and most of our excess hay went to Texas, where they've been in a two-year drought."
http://deltafarmpress.com/mag/farming_h ... _squeezes/So even though the above chart shows increases precipitation for Texas, it seems it hasn't been enough to offset their drought problems causing shortages in things like hay.
"David Stahle, professor of geosciences who teaches a seminar on global change, said scientists are currently unable to determine which parts of the United States will increase or decrease in yearly rates of precipitation. However, there is evidence to support an overall trend of
increasing precipitation, (increasing) evaporation, more intense rainstorms
and drier soils."
http://tinyurl.com/38qmbt"Arkansas sportsmen also said they have seen evidence of global warming in the state, including warmer and shorter winters,
hotter summers, prolonged droughts and a decline of wetlands and migratory birds in the winter, including ducks."
http://www.arkansasnews.com/archive/200 ... 36149.html$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f scientists are correct, you can expect average temperatures to rise in Arkansas. There will be more very hot days in summer, and winters will be milder. Scientists aren’t sure if the warmer conditions will result in more or less rain,
but most models predict Arkansas will have more rain, with most of this increase happening in the summer. (This is good news for Arkansas)
Although Arkansas has a lot of groundwater and surface water in its rivers and streams, the agricultural areas in the eastern part of the state have taken much of the groundwater there for crops. In some places saltwater in the earth seeps into the fresh groundwater if the groundwater level gets too low.
If conditions become warmer, even lower groundwater levels could result. Also, less water could enter the state in the spring and summer, when farmers need it most, from its sources out of state. (This isn't good news)
(And the following is an interesting opinion...)Farmers may have a difficult time adjusting to climate variability. Increased temperatures during the growing season may not favor many of the plants that farmers have been growing for years. Unless Arkansas farmers can find new crops to grow and sell, they may have a difficult time staying in the business of agriculture. Global warming will significantly affect Arkansas’ overall economy and the livelihoods of the thousands of Arkansans in agriculture and related businesses.
PDF:
http://tinyurl.com/2supex along with the general warming trend. ."
On average, Midwest precipitation over the 20th century has increased. The Hadley model indicates that this trend will continue, resulting in increases of about 25% from the present. The Canadian model suggests that these increases will be confined to the northern and western parts of the region.