[Roccland]

COC: The following post content is subject to edit/deletion: Messages devoid of content: This includes posts on "why was my post deleted", off-topic posts, threadjacking, complaining about links, unedited reposts, repeated mod evasion, and trolling.-FL

[kdenninger]

COC: The following post content is subject to edit/deletion: Messages devoid of content: This includes posts on "why was my post deleted", off-topic posts, threadjacking, complaining about links, unedited reposts, repeated mod evasion, and trolling.-FL

[Roccland]

COC: The following post content is subject to edit/deletion: Messages devoid of content: This includes posts on "why was my post deleted", off-topic posts, threadjacking, complaining about links, unedited reposts, repeated mod evasion, and trolling.-FL

[kdenninger]

You obviously can't read.

I was attempting to insert the table dump from the SQL database to prove you a liar, as I said before.

The code here is throwing up on it; ergo, the edit attempt (there actually was more than one, as I tried more than once. Sorry if the software here can't count but I don't think that's my problem.)

[idiom]

So, Karl,

Even if the US tried to deal with the oncoming Energy Crisis, China would pick up the slack?

But this is unlikely, as half the establishment is hell-bent on American Powerdown anyway?

How are you not a Peak Oil doomer?

[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kdenninger', 'Y')ou obviously can't read.

I was attempting to insert the table dump from the SQL database to prove you a liar, as I said before.

The code here is throwing up on it; ergo, the edit attempt (there actually was more than one, as I tried more than once. Sorry if the software here can't count but I don't think that's my problem.)

[kdenninger]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow are you not a Peak Oil doomer?

[Revi]

Can we get back to why America is headed for a Depression?

The term depression was coined by Herbert Hoover so that it wouldn't sound as bad as recession. Depression sounds like just a little dip in the road, not rolling backwards.

This one we'll have to make up a name for.

It's already happening around here. In Maine it's hard to tell the difference anyway.

[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kdenninger', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow are you not a Peak Oil doomer?

[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'C')an we get back to why America is headed for a Depression? The term depression was coined by Herbert Hoover so that it wouldn't sound as bad as recession. Depression sounds like just a little dip in the road, not rolling backwards. This one we'll have to make up a name for. It's already happening around here. In Maine it's hard to tell the difference anyway.

[kdenninger]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'C')an we get back to why America is headed for a Depression? The term depression was coined by Herbert Hoover so that it wouldn't sound as bad as recession. Depression sounds like just a little dip in the road, not rolling backwards. This one we'll have to make up a name for. It's already happening around here. In Maine it's hard to tell the difference anyway.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kdenninger', 'T')he oil isn't gone. Its just more expensive to get what's left. There's plenty of it, if we're willing to go get it and pay what it costs. And before you say "but the costs of extraction are higher than the returned energy when consumed", that's not relavent since that has always been true - remember, the ultimate source of the energy is the Sun, which is "free".

All of the cost of extraction is, in essence, the premium paid for the convenience of having this many BTUs of energy in that small and easily-transported of a space. That premium can exceed the net energy output and the equation still works, since you don't need to spend oil to extract oil (e.g. you could get the energy necessary from a nuclear plant, for example)

[shortonoil]

kdenninger said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is no particular problem with a debt-based fractional reserve system.

[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]kdenninger said:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is no particular problem with a debt-based fractional reserve system.

[kdenninger]

The growth over the last 20 years was not real.

We are now to where we need to add $5 in debt to create $1 in GDP. This is unsustainable and is rapidly going for an asymptote.

That is why we are now "unwinding."

Those who are in debt are fucked. As velocity falls and creditworthiness dries up (the issue becomes one of lack of collateral to secure further borrowing) defaults precipitate more defaults.

Those who have actual money (not credit, but actual funds) make out quite well. Asset prices fall rapidly and you can buy them cheaply - provided you don't need credit to do it.

Those who are in debt are crushed as the money necessary to pay it down becomes harder and harder to find (e.g. job loss, etc)

There is no particular reason that the system has to go "overcenter" and implode, unless certain limits (which are defined mathematically) are reached. There is no evidence that I can find that we have reached them, and in fact my calculations says we have not.

It is actually quite difficult to reach the "overcenter" point, because what is happening now tends to occur first. It requires truly foolish and massive policy mistakes to continue beyond that point and cause an actual implosion.

Its going to get much worse than it is now, but that doesn't mean we're all doomed. In fact we're not, although for those who are overleveraged (in debt) it sure is going to be doom for them.

[Roccland]

And this from ShortonOil on the economic meltdown thread:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he available energy model is predicting a 17 year decline. The worse part of this contraction will be in the foremost years. The suburban, corporate environment will be the most difficult to negotiate. FRNs will be the most unstable of currencies to hold, while metals will retain a significant share of their value over the long term. High quality farm land will do well, housing will continue to decline until it is reduced to little value.

[Revi]

I don't know why you want to barbecue us greenies. We are the ones who live practically debt free and were the prudent ones in this past 5 year fiesta of fools.

"See, there are a very large number of people - perhaps much as 25% of America, that have no debt at all. Not even a car loan. I'm one of them, and in fact this has been, in the main, my viewpoint since I was a youngster.

Yes, I've had car loans and mortgages, but I never was one to run a credit card balance or charge plate at a store. Ever. There are quite a few people like me, some of them older, some younger, but not everyone is in debt up to their eyeballs." From the Denninger report.

Most of us "greenies" are the people you are talking about. We haven't even taken out a car loan. We drive old subarus and things and spend our money on solar panels.

I think the people you want to pick on are the people who bought the SUV's, overextended themselves to buy that ski boat, the house on the lake, the McMansion with the lawyer foyer and did it all on easy credit.

That doesn't sound like the greenies I know. BTW, I agree completely with your article, even though I might be one of the ones you want to marinate and cook.

[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') think the people you want to pick on are the people who bought the SUV's, overextended themselves to buy that ski boat, the house on the lake, the McMansion with the lawyer foyer and did it all on easy credit. That doesn't sound like the greenies I know. BTW, I agree completely with your article, even though I might be one of the ones you want to marinate and cook.

[Revi]

Yes, that was me. link

We have cut our fossil fuel by half over the last five years. We also save about $3000 a year from the changes we've made. I guess that makes me a "greenie". I just got done building a solar car. We hope to get it registered next week.

Check it out at www.sunnev.com . It's the green one in the middle of the page.

[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'Y')es, that was me. link
We have cut our fossil fuel by half over the last five years. We also save about $3000 a year from the changes we've made. I guess that makes me a "greenie". I just got done building a solar car. We hope to get it registered next week.
Check it out at www.sunnev.com . It's the green one in the middle of the page.