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Why America Is Headed For A Depression

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Re: Why America Is Headed For A Depression

Unread postby Roccland » Fri 22 Aug 2008, 20:18:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MadScientist', 'y')ou've been spouting off stupidity this whole thread rocc. some of us might be more interested in our new members positive, and interesting contributions. I mean they stand way above russian propagandists, cornucopians, and dieoffalterego_01 imo.

You should spend some time at TF. Stupidity reigns supreme.

You would fit right in.

And the irony is 1) it is my thread and 2) the OP comes from TF.
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Re: Why America Is Headed For A Depression

Unread postby Newbtrader » Fri 22 Aug 2008, 20:33:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'W')ell for starters, heed China's recent warning that it will discontinue buying treasuries and start a massive dump of it's accumulated pile of US money, if the US doesn't start having some respect for other nations.

How long has this threat been going on for? This isn't going to happen, let's face it. Could they slow their purchasing of treasuries? Sure.. in fact I would welcome it. This country's gotten too used to low interest rates because China/Japan/etc. are buying them by the truckload. This has some very nasty consequences though, and to ignore those is simply stupid. It's quite literally cutting off their nose to spite their face. Let's think about it..

China dumping US treasuries sends the dollar lower and pushes the renminbi higher. What does that do? It's inflationary for the US. The child/cheap labor now becomes much more expensive in China, and that labor comes back to US soil (being in a recession/depression tends to drive down labor costs as well). So now, not only will China not be selling stuff to us (as we can't afford it because of a depression AND because the currency is a lot weaker), but we start bringing jobs back to the USA, and their economy is crushed. They're like our siamese twin joined at the hip. Sadly, it only ends in tears for them if they try this tactic.
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Re: Why America Is Headed For A Depression

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 22 Aug 2008, 21:09:27

Newbtrader said:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')hina dumping US treasuries sends the dollar lower and pushes the renminbi higher. What does that do? It's inflationary for the US.

That would dump $1.6 trillion in T-bonds on to the world market. The ME nations and EU could sop up $1.6 trillion and would. They would because the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency and if the US goes down the tubes, so do they. The world is jointed at the hip.

The only thing China would gain by dumping $1.6 trillion in Treasuries is make an awful lot of people mad at them. Since resource acquisition is their primary objective (which is necessary to feed 1.3 billion) and that requires co-operation, pissing everyone off is not going to advance it.

China is not going to shoot itself in its own foot, there isn’t going to be any dumping of US bonds by China.
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Re: Why America Is Headed For A Depression

Unread postby threadbear » Fri 22 Aug 2008, 23:50:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newbtrader', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'W')ell for starters, heed China's recent warning that it will discontinue buying treasuries and start a massive dump of it's accumulated pile of US money, if the US doesn't start having some respect for other nations.
How long has this threat been going on for? This isn't going to happen, let's face it. Could they slow their purchasing of treasuries? Sure.. in fact I would welcome it. This country's gotten too used to low interest rates because China/Japan/etc. are buying them by the truckload. This has some very nasty consequences though, and to ignore those is simply stupid. It's quite literally cutting off their nose to spite their face. Let's think about it. China dumping US treasuries sends the dollar lower and pushes the renminbi higher. What does that do? It's inflationary for the US. The child/cheap labor now becomes much more expensive in China, and that labor comes back to US soil (being in a recession/depression tends to drive down labor costs as well). So now, not only will China not be selling stuff to us (as we can't afford it because of a depression AND because the currency is a lot weaker), but we start bringing jobs back to the USA, and their economy is crushed. They're like our siamese twin joined at the hip. Sadly, it only ends in tears for them if they try this tactic.

I'm aware that it would be painful for China. They would only do it, if the status quo becomes more painful. And that is a distinct possibility.
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Re: Why America Is Headed For A Depression

Unread postby cube » Sat 23 Aug 2008, 03:40:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', 'A')nd this putz it all in perspective. Karl thinks that if the price of oil goes up more oil in the ground can be recovered. I think someone was taking a nap during the EROEI class...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is quite a bit of oil that is recoverable at $100/bbl that is not economically recoverable at $70, and so on up the line. So we're not exactly about to run out, although the price will rise precipitously.
from here

Using economics only and ignoring (engineering + geology) an argument can be made that as oil gets more expensive --> less people can afford it --> this puts a cap on demand --> therefore this puts a limit to how much the suppliers will produce.
It doesn't matter if the moons of Jupiter contain hydrocarbons there will always be a huge mass of fossil fuels that will never be produced.

I think somebody was also taking a nap in econ 101. :roll:

addon: demand destruction Goodyear to close 92 US stores...
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Re: Why America Is Headed For A Depression

Unread postby cube » Sat 23 Aug 2008, 04:07:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '.').. I'm aware that it would be painful for China. They would only do it, if the status quo becomes more painful. And that is a distinct possibility.

I'm going to have to agree with you for once threadbear. I never did like the argument that some people propose, "China will not cut itself loose from the USA because it would hurt."
The problem with that argument is it ignores a glaringly obvious fact: Hanging on would hurt more in the long run.
Imagine a wolf caught in a steel claw foot trap. It has 2 choices:
1) chew it's own leg off to save itself --> ouch!
2) sit there and wait till the "final end"
Which is a smarter decision?
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Re: Why America Is Headed For A Depression

Unread postby nobodypanic » Sat 23 Aug 2008, 04:28:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '.').. I'm aware that it would be painful for China. They would only do it, if the status quo becomes more painful. And that is a distinct possibility.

I'm going to have to agree with you for once threadbear. I never did like the argument that some people propose, "China will not cut itself loose from the USA because it would hurt."
The problem with that argument is it ignores a glaringly obvious fact: Hanging on would hurt more in the long run.
Imagine a wolf caught in a steel claw foot trap. It has 2 choices:
1) chew it's own leg off to save itself --> ouch!
2) sit there and wait till the "final end"
Which is a smarter decision?

this might be just a wild guess on my part cubie, but a one legged wolf in the wild has about as much chance of survival as a dolphin in a tuna net. either die slow due to infection and starvation or quick and clean by the hunters hand.

nobody gets out alive.:P
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Re: Why America Is Headed For A Depression

Unread postby idiom » Sat 23 Aug 2008, 05:32:46

Congress has found themselves in bear trap. They will chew off three legs, and still be caught in it.
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Re: Why America Is Headed For A Depression

Unread postby 35Kas » Sat 23 Aug 2008, 06:13:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hey will chew off three legs, and still be caught in it.


LMFAO! This pretty much describes it!
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Re: Why America Is Headed For A Depression

Unread postby Roccland » Sat 23 Aug 2008, 10:04:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', 'A')nd this putz it all in perspective... Karl thinks that if the price of oil goes up ....more oil in the ground can be recovered... I think someone was taking a nap during the EROEI class...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is quite a bit of oil that is recoverable at $100/bbl that is not economically recoverable at $70, and so on up the line. So we're not exactly about to run out, although the price will rise precipitously.

from here

Using economics only and ignoring (engineering + geology) an argument can be made that as oil gets more expensive --> less people can afford it --> this puts a cap on demand --> therefore this puts a limit to how much the suppliers will produce.
It doesn't matter if the moons of Jupiter contain hydrocarbons there will always be a huge mass of fossil fuels that will never be produced.
I think somebody was also taking a nap in econ 101. :roll:

addon: demand destruction Goodyear to close 92 US stores...


May have some truth in it...although oil is now 115 ish - 4 trillion US miles less driven - and demand is still racing ahead. Does not matter.

Karl was clearly suggesting that as price increases oil in the ground would become available.
Oil could be $5000 a barrel...if it takes more energy to get it out then contained in it...so what.

Someone slept through reading comprehension class.
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Re: Why America Is Headed For A Depression

Unread postby cube » Sat 23 Aug 2008, 10:51:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('idiom', 'C')ongress has found themselves in bear trap. They will chew off three legs, and still be caught in it.
wow that's pretty doomerish.....I like it! :twisted:
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Re: Why America Is Headed For A Depression

Unread postby Roccland » Sat 23 Aug 2008, 16:43:59

COC: The following post content is subject to edit/deletion: Messages devoid of content: This includes posts on "why was my post deleted", off-topic posts, threadjacking, complaining about links, unedited reposts, repeated mod evasion, and trolling.-F:
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Re: Why America Is Headed For A Depression

Unread postby kdenninger » Sat 23 Aug 2008, 17:37:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MadScientist', 'k')arl you gotta understand rocc is wayyy beyond left. Rocc got so deep in the hole he discovered that any solution, even a dam good one like yours, is only going to WORSEN our situation. you see, resource depletion is EPIDEMIC. Oil's just the first of a rapidly cascading wave of "Peak's" all caused by one, seemingly innocent, misunderstood and underestimated word:
O
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I believe he is right. However, I also believe 99% of the world's population will never even BEGIN to accept that fact as anything more that PSYCHOTIC CRAZINESS. Just not part of joe six pack's equipment.

Psst - the natural carrying capacity of the planet is in the ~1 billion person range.

However - this is not evenly distributed. We can, more or less, support the US population on its existing landmass in perpetuity. China cannot support their population on their landmass in perpetuity.

This ultimately leads to some very un-funny problems.

Note that you can cheat your way around the sustainable population counts to a point through technology. In particular, energy makes possible quite a bit of cheating where it would otherwise not be. Consider the mechanization of farming (made possible through energy concentration greater than you can obtain in a beast of burden) and how this increases the number of people you can support on a given quantity of land.

However, there are limits to this "cheating" in that the resource "adds" are non-linear, both on the front and back end, and eventually have a negative net return.

Oh, Rocc is not banned at TF. In fact he posted a "probe" on a Ticker thread yesterday in an attempt to discredit my earlier post on this thread (which failed, of course). I bilged it as it was one word - "Test".
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'T')his is very interesting Karl. Can you provide the algorithm used or a link to a similar source. Also, could you expand on what is meant by “as practiced”? Are you referring to reserve requirements? I see no immediate intrinsic reason why a fractional reserve banking system should implode as a result of its own functions (if mismanaged it could). They have been operating since at least the mid 1500s. Are you sure Nothing wasn’t discussing a debt based fiat currency with a fractional reserve system? That is a combination ripe with potential catastrophes!
Thanks-

There is no particular problem with a debt-based fractional reserve system. In fact, essentially all so-called "hard money systems" are in fact not, as credit (debt) is freely available in them.

The problem with hard money systems is that as soon as your monetary base cannot be produced wholly within your own borders you have set up a horrifying arbitrage opportunity for foreign interests to exploit and both drive you off the system while they enrich themselves at your expense (and possible bankruptcy.) We (and everyone else) were ultimately driven off hard money for this exact reason.

The underlying issue with all monetary systems that can result in their failure is a refusal to regulate leverage in the portions that are supported (directly or indirectly) by the government. Once that happens you're in deep shit as you get things like Fannie and Freddie (with gearing of from 60:1 to 200:1, depending on how you do the accounting) and THAT is where the fuel for asset bubbles (and their eventual collapse) comes from.

As far as "Peak Oil", so what?

What most people refuse to recognize and deal with who are in the "peak oil" camp is that there are exactly two forms of reasonable energy available to the human race:
1. Nuclear
2. Solar

Further, they don't want to talk about:
1. Liquid Hydrocarbons are the only reasonable fuel for non-anchored (e.g. "choice of path", such as trucks, cars, planes, etc) transportation. This is a matter of thermodynamics, which many "peak oilers" simply ignore when it doesn't suit them. Unfortunately thermodynamics are laws, not suggestions.

2. Vehicle "choices" such as plug-in battery vehicles are in fact less efficient than liquid hydrocarbon fueled ones, simply because of the extra conversion steps involved between source and final use of the energy in quesqtion. Never mind the energy density problem (see #1 above) and charge-rate issue (if it requires 60kwh to operate a vehicle for one hour at 60mph, to recharge it sufficiently to operate for that one hour off a standard 20A wall circuit requires 24 hours!) To charge such a vehicle in 10 minutes like we fill a car at the gas station would require the ability to deliver more than 1500 amps @ 240V per vehicle at the "gas station" at once! Forget it.

Oil from the ground is in fact solar energy. It just fell on the earth a few million years ago. We can shorten the cycle but we cannot get around the reality that stored energy we wish to use must come from one of the two above sources. We also can't get around the reality that if we want a growing GDP we must have a growing energy output. It requires more energy to make 100 TVs than 10. This is unavoidable.

The folks in this debate on the "peak oil and doom" camp all like to ignore these unfortunately pieces of reality when it comes to the physical laws that govern the universe.

There are methods available to us to continue to grow available energy and enhance its quality (electrical energy is one of the highest quality forms, for example) but doing so requires both that we use what we can deploy in the immediate and near term while we build that which has a longer lead-time.

That, as well, makes a significant portion of those in the debate nervous, because their demand is simply that we not use that which they find unacceptable, either in the near or far term.
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Re: Why America Is Headed For A Depression

Unread postby MadScientist » Sat 23 Aug 2008, 18:03:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '=')"kdenninger" As far as "Peak Oil", so what?

What most people refuse to recognize and deal with who are in the "peak oil" camp is that there are exactly two forms of reasonable energy available to the human race:

1. Nuclear
2. Solar

Further, they don't want to talk about:

1. Liquid Hydrocarbons are the only reasonable fuel for non-anchored (e.g. "choice of path", such as trucks, cars, planes, etc) transportation.

2. Vehicle "choices" such as plug-in battery vehicles are in fact less efficient than liquid hydrocarbon fueled ones,

Oil from the ground is in fact solar energy. It just fell on the earth a few million years ago.

We also can't get around the reality that if we want a growing GDP we must have a growing energy output.

The folks in this debate on the "peak oil and doom" camp all like to ignore these unfortunately pieces of reality when it comes to the physical laws that govern the universe.


There's a big misunderstanding about what "peak oil and doom" is karl.

We actually agree with most all the points you made. Furthermore, we believe that natural depletion is bringing our era of "free stored solar energy" to a swift and painful close.

The best short term solution is significant demand destruction through price spikes.

There is no long term solution while the models of the past are considered "normal".
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Re: Why America Is Headed For A Depression

Unread postby idiom » Sat 23 Aug 2008, 18:05:42

So... are you a doomer or a cornucopian, you seem to use doom arguments to predict prosperity...

I am confused...
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Re: Why America Is Headed For A Depression

Unread postby vision-master » Sat 23 Aug 2008, 18:07:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s far as "Peak Oil", so what?

What most people refuse to recognize and deal with who are in the "peak oil" camp is that there are exactly two forms of reasonable energy available to the human race:

1. Nuclear
2. Solar


T1 and counting................... :razz:

You really are a newbie here!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')r. Bakhtiari's 4 Phases of Transition

"The four Transition periods (T1, T2, T3, and T4) will roughly span the 2006-2020 era. Each Transition [will] cover, on average, three to four years.

"The major palpable difference between the four Ts is their respective gradient of oil output decline -- very small for T1, perceptible for T2, remarkable in T3, and rather steep for T4. In fact, this gradation in decline is a genuine blessing for those having to cope and adapt.

"It should be borne in mind that these four Ts are only an overall theoretical structure for future global oil output. The structure is thus so orderly because [it is] predicted with 'Pre-Peak' methods, 'Pre-Peak' assumptions, and [a] 'Pre-Peak' set of rules.

"The problem is that we now are in 'Post-Peak' mode, and that none of [the] above applies anymore.

"The fact of being in 'Post-Peak' will bring about explosive disruptions we know little about, and which are extremely difficult to foresee. And the shock waves from these explosions rippling throughout the financial and industrial infrastructure could have myriad unintended consequences for which we have no precedent and little experience.

"So the only Transition we can see rather clearly (or rather, we hope to be able to comprehend) is T1. It is clear that T1 will witness the tilting of the 'Oil Demand' and 'Oil Supply' scales -- with the former dominant at the onset and the latter commanding toward the close (say, by 2009 or 2010).

"But even during that rather benign T1, the unexpected might become the rule and the orderly 'Pre-Peak' rapidly give way to some chaotic 'Post-Peak.'

"In any instance, the overall structure of the 'Four Transitions' is a general guideline for the next 14 years or so -- as far as global oil output is concerned. In practice, reality might prove to be worse than these theoretical Transitions; but certainly not better."


"The decline of global oil production seems now irreversible. It is bound to occur over a number of transitions, the first of which I have called T1, which has just begun in 2006. T1 has a very benign gradient of decline, and it will take months before one notices it at all. But T2 will be far steeper...My World Oil Production Capacity model has predicted that over the next 14 years, present global production of 81 million barrels per day will decrease by roughly 32%, down to around 55 million barrels per day by the year 2020.

"Thus, in the face of Peak Oil and its multiple consequences, which are bound to impact upon almost all aspects of our human standards of life, it seems imperative to get prepared to face all the inevitable shock waves resulting from that. Preparation should be carried out on individual, familial, societal, and national levels as soon as possible. Every preparative step taken today will prove far cheaper than any step taken tomorrow."



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Re: Why America Is Headed For A Depression

Unread postby Roccland » Sat 23 Aug 2008, 18:59:15

COC: The following post content is subject to edit/deletion: Messages devoid of content: This includes posts on "why was my post deleted", off-topic posts, threadjacking, complaining about links, unedited reposts, repeated mod evasion, and trolling.-FL

And I guess all this talk about finite fossil fuels is just "conspiracy" talk...eh.
You my friend need to stop lieing.
And when you can maybe we can have a civil discourse about - oil, overshoot, illusions, and what not...until such time...well...you know.
All quotes above from right here...
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Re: Why America Is Headed For A Depression

Unread postby kdenninger » Sat 23 Aug 2008, 19:59:34

COC: The following post content is subject to edit/deletion: Messages devoid of content: This includes posts on "why was my post deleted", off-topic posts, threadjacking, complaining about links, unedited reposts, repeated mod evasion, and trolling.-F:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here's a big misunderstanding about what "peak oil and doom" is karl.
We actually agree with most all the points you made. Furthermore, we believe that natural depletion is bringing our era of "free stored solar energy" to a swift and painful close.
The best short term solution is significant demand destruction through price spikes.
There is no long term solution while the models of the past are considered "normal".

Demand destruction is a nice idea, but the problem with it is that most people want to create those price spikes as were done over in Europe (through taxes, mostly)
The problem with this is that it doesn't solve anything nor does it actually push people towards sustainable development, particularly those who need it most.

We have over a billion people in China and 300 million here. We can play with our tax system all we want and China will simply laugh, just as they have done when it comes to "Global Warming" (yet another farce)

The fact of the matter is that The Left has prevented any meaningful development of known and feasable energy resources - particularly nuclear - for more than 30 years. We are now stuck with this and will be forced to either (1) accept a much lower standard of living or (2) embark on crash programs to bridge the gap while this is addressed.

(2) requires literally keelhauling the Greens since their true agenda is not environmental "friendliness" but economic impoverishment - that is, addressing the "unfairness" of the western economic system.
Text deleted. See above.-FL

While I've put forward energy plans in the past, this isn't where my primary focus is, and I've only got so many hours in the day....
Last edited by kdenninger on Sat 23 Aug 2008, 20:06:05, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Why America Is Headed For A Depression

Unread postby Roccland » Sat 23 Aug 2008, 20:05:13

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Re: Why America Is Headed For A Depression

Unread postby kdenninger » Sat 23 Aug 2008, 20:11:36

COC: The following post content is subject to edit/deletion: Messages devoid of content: This includes posts on "why was my post deleted", off-topic posts, threadjacking, complaining about links, unedited reposts, repeated mod evasion, and trolling.-F:
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