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THE Free Market Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: losing faith in free markets?

Postby cube » Thu 07 Aug 2008, 15:13:15

The popularity of this thread has taken me by surprise.
In a way I'm quite happy.
Not because I believe the arguments have much value.
On the contrary I've noticed that 90% of all the complaints against the free market are pretty weak arguments.
I'm just glad all the complaints are being consolidated into this 1 thread so the other econ threads can stay on topic without being hijacked by another disgruntled person who believes the "free market" has failed them. :roll:
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Re: losing faith in free markets?

Postby CrudeAwakening » Thu 07 Aug 2008, 16:53:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chrispi', 'T')he Invisible Hand is invisible precisely because it doesn't exist.

Haven't you seen the Invisible Hand of central banks working lately?
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Re: losing faith in free markets?

Postby phaster » Mon 11 Aug 2008, 02:46:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CrudeAwakening', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chrispi', 'T')he Invisible Hand is invisible precisely because it doesn't exist.

Haven't you seen the Invisible Hand of central banks working lately?



[smart ass answer on]

if its invisible then by definition I'd say there was no direct way for me or anyone else to actually see "the Invisible Hand"

[smart ass answer off]

guess I've wasted enough time logged onto this board for this week, so till next time, evening all
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Re: losing faith in free markets?

Postby jbrovont » Mon 11 Aug 2008, 03:16:47

I may adjust my vote after the market opens this morning :) We shall see.
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Re: losing faith in free markets?

Postby phaster » Sun 17 Aug 2008, 21:21:15

After looking at the markets this week, where stock prices when up, but gold and energy went down and pretty much did their own thing, I have to admit that over the short term I don't think markets price in all the risks.

Of course I'm talking about russians invade georgia. I would have bet that an event like this would have caused stock prices to go down and oil and gold to go up. Guess everone but me is watching the olympics.

So for now I'm adding add the caveat, over the long term I believe the market does work and the trend of prices upward or downward does reflect the accurate trend of the risk/reward ratio (kinda an extension of the long term idea of reversion to the mean, hopefully ya all get what I'm trying to say, most of the econmic terminology I'm using is being posted w/out any real checks for accuracy).







$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbrovont', 'I') may adjust my vote after the market opens this morning :) We shall see.
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Re: losing faith in free markets?

Postby CarlosFerreira » Mon 18 Aug 2008, 08:06:05

I must say it really puzzled me. How come there's a war going on in Eastern Europe and the stock markets just get on with their business? I'm not jumping into the conspiracy theory bandwagon, but it goes a long way to show that the Market and the stock markets are different stuff.

BTW, the Russian stock market really is down - because of the war, sure, but mostly because (I guess), because of the stat bullying companies:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he conflict at TNK-BP remains a dispute between private shareholders. The Kremlin has not interfered directly, but it has not prevented the use of official agencies in the fight, nor has it done anything to help BP protect its investment. “Tread with caution,” was the advice of Tony Hayward, BP’s chief executive, to companies thinking of investing in Russia.

Perhaps one reason why the Kremlin is so complacent about foreign investors is that it has never paid the price for destroying Yukos. Rising oil prices, strong global growth and booming capital inflows meant that investors soon forgot about the affair. BP itself happily took part in Rosneft’s initial public offering, which legitimised its murky and controversial takeover of Yukos’s assets.


The Economist

The Russian situation goes a long way into showing an example of counter-productive state intervention.
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Re: losing faith in free markets?

Postby Tyler_JC » Mon 18 Aug 2008, 10:30:26

The EU is in a recession, China is slowing down, India is slowing down, US oil demand is falling...that's why energy is down.

There is some evidence that the US stock market was oversold and that the worst of the housing mess is behind us, that's been boosting US stocks.

I happen to believe they are wrong and that the bump in US growth experienced in the last quarter was a fluke.
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Free Markets and a Steady State economy

Postby venky » Thu 21 Aug 2008, 13:05:41

Most people would agree that in most cases a Market economy tends to out perform a central command and control economy as is generally the best system that human beings have developed to distribute and allocate resources , products and wealth to the general betterment of society. It also can be agreed that are entering this era of resource constraints and depletion with, atleast in the Western world but also in other places in the world to whatever degree, with institutions and systems in place that are predominanly free market and capitalist in their orientation, with varying degrees of goverment programs and schemes in addition depending on the country.

Many of those on the left assume that in an era of resource depletion, the government will automatically take a larger role, especially in the allocation of ever scarcer and declining natural resources, mostly energy resources and in the distribution of products and supplies to keep the population in relative or modest comfort, that will already be greatly affected or perhaps say battered by what we can assume to be widespread unemployment, economic turmoil and decline, in some cases conflicts and flare ups.

However there are many , especially those who trust in the efficacy of free markets as the best system of organization of the economic activities of a society, view with suspicion any further enroachment of government power. It is also well known that in an economy where a large portion of economic activity is controlled by a central authority, it is affected by uncompetetivenes, corruption, being technologically outdated due to lack of innovation, and with no incentives the lack of entreprenaural spirit, and the enroachment of bueracratism.

While I have moved from a more left wing view to a belief in the superiority of the Capitalist system and a market economy; I still believe that Capitalism and a free market system has not worked out any reasonable answer to the question of declining natural resources and any limits to growth; and also the harmful effects of human activities on the enviroment and the planet. While I believe it to be a good thing that in a market economy most individuals are free to engage in activities that may lead to their betterment and well being; such a system will always have an upward pressure that will result in economic growth in the presence of abundant natural resources and lack of any disincentive to further growth.

I think most people on this forum (with maybe very few exceptions like John Denver) believe that resources are finite for all practical purposes from our point view and it is most likely that we shall face the pinch of resource constraints starting with oil, sometime early this century. I want to explore the question of how an economy that is and will be in the near future atleast predominantly market oriented and capitalist be able to cope with what is to come.

In an economy that is declining, where growth is no longer considered a favorable outcome, how do we deal with those who are still trying to expand their business for instance? Do we put no restrictions on their activities? Or should depend on how much energy they might use and correspondingly give a preference to a business that predominantly uses less fossil fuels and more alternatives? Or do we follow something like strict quotas on extending ones economic activities in any given time period? Who is going to enforce these constraints on our behaviour? Do we trust the government? And what should be its role in developing alternatives to fossil fuels for instance?
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Re: Free Markets and a Steady State economy

Postby Tyler_JC » Thu 21 Aug 2008, 14:02:11

The price of a resource is a reflection of its current availability relative to the demand for that resource. (supply and demand).

As oil production falls, the price of oil will go up.

That's how you ration the resource most effectively.

The best users of oil (those who produce the most wealth per barrel) will get to continue to use oil.

The least efficient users will be priced out of the market.

It's actually quite simple.
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Re: Free Markets and a Steady State economy

Postby venky » Thu 21 Aug 2008, 14:25:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'T')he price of a resource is a reflection of its current availability relative to the demand for that resource. (supply and demand).
As oil production falls, the price of oil will go up. That's how you ration the resource most effectively.
The best users of oil (those who produce the most wealth per barrel) will get to continue to use oil. The least efficient users will be priced out of the market.
It's actually quite simple.

I see two problems. First its not just the decline of oil that is the problem. Its also the growing danger of catastrophic climate change. The least efficient users are probably far more likely to switch to a dirtier, more readily available source like coal or perhaps biofuels (thus driving up food prices) than just meekly go out of business.

Another problem is that since oil is a critical resource to the economy....these "least efficient users" might actually be a large segment of the population; perhaps as high as 50% in poorer countries and maybe even about up to 10 - 20% in some western countries; enough to plunge the economy into an even larger depression than the one of the 1930's.
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Re: Free Markets and a Steady State economy

Postby Tyler_JC » Thu 21 Aug 2008, 14:32:10

The Market can't price in the risk of climate change. That has to be done by governments. Carbon taxes seem like the easiest way to do it.

The least efficient users are just that...the least efficient users.

If you try to take oil from the more efficient users, you are only making the problem worse.
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Re: Free Markets and a Steady State economy

Postby venky » Thu 21 Aug 2008, 14:56:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'T')he Market can't price in the risk of climate change. That has to be done by governments. Carbon taxes seem like the easiest way to do it. The least efficient users are just that...the least efficient users. If you try to take oil from the more efficient users, you are only making the problem worse.

Perhaps; that was one of my purposes of starting the thread; what should if any be the increased government role in a more steady state oriented economy.

I would totally agree with you in normal circumstances, interfering with the markets that way will probably make it worse in many ways.

But consider like in the above scenario where between 10-50% of the population is unable to find work and economic activity has declined by the same amount. Society would face pressures and tensions that dont exist today, along with a much greater risk of violence and there would be a clamour for government intervention and assistance of some form.

I am not calling for more socialism; infact I want to see how free markets can operate in a declining or steady state economy.
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Re: Free Markets and a Steady State economy

Postby joeltrout » Thu 21 Aug 2008, 14:57:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('venky', ' ')The least efficient users are probably far more likely to switch to a dirtier, more readily available source like coal or perhaps biofuels (thus driving up food prices) than just meekly go out of business.

Correct me if I am wrong, the majority of oil is used in transportation. How do you run a car on coal? Or switch to biofuels quickly?
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Re: Free Markets and a Steady State economy

Postby venky » Thu 21 Aug 2008, 15:11:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('venky', ' ')The least efficient users are probably far more likely to switch to a dirtier, more readily available source like coal or perhaps biofuels (thus driving up food prices) than just meekly go out of business.
Correct me if I am wrong, the majority of oil is used in transportation. How do you run a car on coal? Or switch to biofuels quickly?

Coal liquifaction is a possibility; the Nazis did it with great success as did the South Africans. Biofuels can be scaled up too; while they cannot provide the same amount of liquid fuel as oil, but I think they can provide a percentage that wont be insignificant.

And natural gas is still one of the main sources of energy for industrial processes; we may not be facing peak natural gas now, but that will be an issue in a few decades. Coal does seem a likely alternative at this point.
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Re: Free Markets and a Steady State economy

Postby venky » Thu 21 Aug 2008, 15:15:00

And there will be a greater demand for electricity if a portion of transporation is switched to run on electricity. Coal is an option for that too.
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Re: Free Markets and a Steady State economy

Postby kokoda » Thu 21 Aug 2008, 15:41:28

Economies will either rise or they will fall. A steady state is almost impossible in my opinion.

You can't really control all of the factors that contribute to production.

Agriculture is a good example. The difference between a good growing season and a drought could see production rise or fall dramatically ... regardless of any attempt to mandate how much needs to be produced.

The only way this can work is if the state strictly controls cash flow. If there is only a fixed amount of money in the economy then you can control output to some extent.

Of course the black market and bartering would have to strictly controlled in this environment.

Personally I don't believe that people will ever voluntarily accept a Steady State economy. It would take an absolute catastrophe of almost biblical proportions to get them to accept the concept that economic growth must be controlled.
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Re: Free Markets and a Steady State economy

Postby r101958 » Thu 21 Aug 2008, 15:44:45

In reality lack of resources will quickly eclipse climate issues in importance within a very short while after real decline in resources begins.
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Re: Free Markets and a Steady State economy

Postby venky » Thu 21 Aug 2008, 16:14:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kokoda', 'E')conomies will either rise or they will fall. A steady state is almost impossible in my opinion.

I would agree with you on that. In a free society with a market economy where people are free to work towards their betterment, there will always be an upward pressure for economic growth. Even with resource constraints while the overall economy may decline there will be sectors that will prosper and expand.

The question is I guess should we as a society, try to restrict, either by law (i.e. government) or other means, like taxes or carbon caps and trading; the growth of those sectors that will lead to an increased consumption of fossil fuels?
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Re: Free Markets and a Steady State economy

Postby Tyler_JC » Thu 21 Aug 2008, 17:01:17

I don't think there is a need to restrict a sector that is growing in a down economy because that sector is using fossil fuels.

If someone wants to use more oil, they will have to outbid somebody else for that oil. If I want to make plastics for my solar panel, I'll outbid someone using that oil for private transportation. Society is better off as a result.

Watch the price of oil relative to economic news. If data comes out showing that the US economy is growing more rapidly than expected, oil prices rise and the result is a slowdown in economic growth.

It has become self-regulating.
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Re: Free Markets and a Steady State economy

Postby venky » Thu 21 Aug 2008, 17:35:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f someone wants to use more oil, they will have to outbid somebody else for that oil. If I want to make plastics for my solar panel, I'll outbid someone using that oil for private transportation. Society is better off as a result.

In general I would agree with that statement, however I am starting on the assumption that oil production has declined atleast 10% from its peak amount; prices are way way higher and there is a significant amount of economic pain. In which case when you are bidding for the price of oil, you are also bidding against the old man who can no longer afford to drive his car to the doctor's clinic; the farmer who cant afford to buy fuel for his tractor or buy pesticides. So perhaps society isn't quite better off, even though you might be.

I dont think oil would decline to that level for atleast another decade if not more, but I am not convinced if business as usual , leaving it to the free markets alone, would be able to prevent a large amount of pain for a lot of people. This is leaving aside the problem of climate change.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't think there is a need to restrict a sector that is growing in a down economy because that sector is using fossil fuels.

I dont mean some bueracrat or a government agency going about knocking down those sectors that it suspects are guilty of excessive consumption of fossil fuels, but rather society developing a mechanism by which the consumption of fossil fuels is cut down as per decline rates and concerns about climate change so that the sectors using fossil fuels fade away gradually replaced by the sectors using more of alternatives, enabling a transistion that will occur smoothly. Ofcourse that is possibly a fantasy I admit.

You can stop taking the tone of teaching an Economics 101 class though :)
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