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THE Heating Oil Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heating prices

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 08 Aug 2008, 11:48:30

The Alaska state legislature just voted to give every person in Alaska $1200 to help with higher energy costs here, and Obama is promising to give $1000 to every "working family" in America if they vote for him and he wins....

How long will it take for the states in New England to come up with some cash to give to their people to help with their high heating bills?
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heating prices

Unread postby midnight-gamer » Fri 08 Aug 2008, 12:03:48

Heating cost is often talked about here. Surely, there will be a crises soon.
Last edited by midnight-gamer on Wed 13 Aug 2008, 11:19:19, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heat

Unread postby mos6507 » Fri 08 Aug 2008, 17:18:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '
')do I smell a little bit of pandering going on here?
It is my observation that ALL the "energy plans" that were ever proposed have one thing in common, the assumption that the good times will keep on rolling.


Obama's most recent speech is pretty f-n sober, and not that far off from Carter's 1970s speech. He's offering a short-term gimme because it's political suicide not to, but he also is warning people that change is gonna come and it won't be without necessary sacrifices.
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heat

Unread postby mos6507 » Fri 08 Aug 2008, 17:22:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')How long will it take for the states in New England to come up with some cash to give to their people to help with their high heating bills?


Already happening.

http://news.mainetoday.com/updates/031075.html
http://www.acf.hhs.gov/programs/ocs/liheap/
http://www.massresources.org/pages.cfm? ... bpages=yes

The problem is that heating bills will drag the middle class, which is NOT eligible for emergency programs like this, down to the poverty line.
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heat

Unread postby burtonridr » Mon 11 Aug 2008, 11:25:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')Obama's most recent speech is pretty f-n sober, and not that far off from Carter's 1970s speech. He's offering a short-term gimme because it's political suicide not to, but he also is warning people that change is gonna come and it won't be without necessary sacrifices.


MMM tasty sacrifice :lol:
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heating prices

Unread postby kpeavey » Mon 11 Aug 2008, 12:29:14

I'm already committed to $1000 to keep my blue haired mother warm this coming winter.

As far as the gubment handouts, they spell disaster for democracy as the people learn they can simply write themselves a largess from the public treasury.
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heating prices

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Mon 11 Aug 2008, 12:56:49

Even a $1,000 check would still mean that we're paying more for heating this winter than last.

Image

Thank God for the recent crash in heating oil prices.

If we had to pay June prices in January...millions of people would be sleeping in front of space heaters.

We're still up more than 60% since this time last year. 8O
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heating prices

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 11 Aug 2008, 16:25:35

Tyler,

For your sake and all my Yankee cousins I hope you're correct in your expectations for Jan FO prices. Right now a 3 month running average would project prices above $4/gal in Jan 2009. Not that all trend lines run for ever. Supply/demand and temperature will ultimately determine if the trend line holds.
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heat

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 11 Aug 2008, 16:30:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '[')
The problem is that heating bills will drag the middle class, which is NOT eligible for emergency programs like this, down to the poverty line.


Thats a problem all right.

Perhaps the New ENgland states should make heating assistance available to all who need it, regardless of skin color or religous belief or ethnicity or income levels.

The $1200 energy emergency rebate check, just authorized here in Alaska for example, is going to go out to help every single citizen in the state. :)
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heat

Unread postby mos6507 » Mon 11 Aug 2008, 23:39:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '[')
The $1200 energy emergency rebate check, just authorized here in Alaska for example, is going to go out to help every single citizen in the state. :)


First off, the state population is pretty low. Secondly, are there really a lot of rich people in Alaska? It's not exactly the top destination spot for the well to do.
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heat

Unread postby Homesteader » Mon 11 Aug 2008, 23:50:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '[')
The problem is that heating bills will drag the middle class, which is NOT eligible for emergency programs like this, down to the poverty line.


Thats a problem all right.

Perhaps the New ENgland states should make heating assistance available to all who need it, regardless of skin color or religous belief or ethnicity or income levels.

The $1200 energy emergency rebate check, just authorized here in Alaska for example, is going to go out to help every single citizen in the state. :)


Since New England doesn't have any oil fields how do you propose they raise the funds? Tax increase? Bonds?

With a population of 15 million people or more? How would you define "all who need it"? Which departments would handle the decision making and disbursements? Or would a new regional authority of some sort be created? How to pay for that? Would it be a one shot deal or an ongoing program? A one shot deal would be reminiscent of the $250 million bridge that was built in Bath, ME. All it accomplished is moving the summer traffic jams 300 yards farther east.
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heat

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 12 Aug 2008, 00:12:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '[')
The problem is that heating bills will drag the middle class, which is NOT eligible for emergency programs like this, down to the poverty line.


Thats a problem all right.

Perhaps the New ENgland states should make heating assistance available to all who need it, regardless of skin color or religous belief or ethnicity or income levels.

The $1200 energy emergency rebate check, just authorized here in Alaska for example, is going to go out to help every single citizen in the state. :)


Since New England doesn't have any oil fields how do you propose they raise the funds? Tax increase? Bonds?


Whoa--- you are starting with an erroneous assumption ---- in truth you don't know if New England has oil fields or not.

The democrats in Congress are blocking offshore exploration and the politicians in New England are also almost all resolutely against offshore oil exploration. So please don't claim "New England doesn't have any oil fields" when the fact of the matter is that New Englanders have never looked. :)
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heat

Unread postby mos6507 » Tue 12 Aug 2008, 01:29:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', '
')Since New England doesn't have any oil fields how do you propose they raise the funds? Tax increase? Bonds?


MA seems to have a pretty healthy economy and an increasingly gentrified population. They call it Taxachusetts for a reason. It wouldn't be this way if nobody could take it.

Actually, we all know the way out isn't heating oil assistance. That's a band-aid just like McCain's gas relief idea. If the government is going to pony up money it should be towards permanently lower heating bills: super-insulation, geothermal heat pumps, etc... So much of the residents' heating bills is for heat that just escapes out of highly inefficient houses built with cheap oil in mind. For a while yet it should still be practical to heat with oil if houses (like the one I'm in) didn't leak like swiss cheese.
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heating prices

Unread postby TheDude » Tue 12 Aug 2008, 01:35:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')I could easily see that 25 or 30 heating oil retailers would not be able to make it through the next heating season, without any question" says Guilford.

In fact, in the last year, at least 15 oil dealers in six states have gone belly up, leaving tens of thousands of customers high and dry.

In March, F and S Oil, a Connecticut company, shut down virtually overnight after collecting more than $3 million from families who pre-paid for their oil.

That total included $5,000 from Constance Copes, a loyal F and S customer for 20 years.

Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal has received more than 3, 000 complaints against oil dealers. He's investigating three, and is suing F&S for failing to live up to its promise.

"There's a sense of real confusion, as well as anxiety and apprehension about whether people are going to be able to heat their homes and who to trust to give them advice, let alone deliver the product," Blumenthal says.

Meaning that in the heat of summer, Constance Copes and thousands like her have had to pay twice for oil long before a winter of discontent arrives.


Northeast To Be Home Heating Oil Hell?

There is a Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve, courtesy of Clinton and Bill Richardson.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')f the 7.7 million households in the United States that use heating oil to heat their homes, 5.3 million households or roughly 69 percent reside in the Northeast region of the country - making this area especially vulnerable to fuel oil disruptions.

On July 10, 2000, President Clinton directed Energy Secretary Bill Richardson to establish a two million barrel home heating oil component of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the Northeast. The intent was to create a buffer large enough to allow commercial companies to compensate for interruptions in supply during severe winter weather, but not so large as to dissuade suppliers from responding to increasing prices as a sign that more supply is needed.

Two million barrels would give Northeast consumers adequate supplies for approximately 10 days, the time required for ships to carry additional heating oil from the Gulf of Mexico to New York Harbor.


There are strict guidelines regarding its release:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Energy Policy and Conservation Act, as amended, sets conditions for the release of the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve at the discretion of the President. The President may make the requisite finding of a "severe energy supply interruption" for the sale of product under two conditions:

* if there is "a dislocation in the heating oil market,"
or
* a circumstance exists (other than the defined dislocation) that is a regional supply shortage of significant scope and duration and the Reserve's release would significantly reduce its adverse impact.


"Dislocation" means:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '#') "The price differential between crude oil...and No. 2 heating oil...increases by more than 60% over its five year rolling average for the months of mid-October through March (considered as a heating season average)."

# The price differential continues to increase during the most recent week for which price information is available."


We're not quite there yet, but scores of dealers going out of business would certainly qualify as "a regional supply shortage of significant scope and duration."
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heating prices

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 12 Aug 2008, 02:33:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '
')
We're not quite there yet, but scores of dealers going out of business would certainly qualify as "a regional supply shortage of significant scope and duration."


We will probably tap it this coming winter if Obama is elected.....Obama has already said he'd tap the strategic petroleum reserve to bring down gasoline prices. That suggests he'll tap the 10 days worth of home heating oil supplies to bring down home heating oil prices too. :)
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heating prices

Unread postby TheDude » Tue 12 Aug 2008, 04:35:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '
')
We're not quite there yet, but scores of dealers going out of business would certainly qualify as "a regional supply shortage of significant scope and duration."


We will probably tap it this coming winter if Obama is elected.....Obama has already said he'd tap the strategic petroleum reserve to bring down gasoline prices. That suggests he'll tap the 10 days worth of home heating oil supplies to bring down home heating oil prices too. :)


The 10 days figure is with an in place distribution system, which wouldn't be around with widespread failures of retailers. I'm assuming this was put in place to deal with a major producing nation going offline, for instance. Perhaps the heating oil companies would need bailing out first, if things are bad enough, then some manner of rationing or a line of credit for the "needy." Triage. Would be a real mess, no matter who's at 1600 Pennsylvania. Of course I included the fact it was a Dem pet project to fan the flames. :-D
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heating prices

Unread postby lorenzo » Tue 12 Aug 2008, 08:25:46

It's called a pellet boiler fueled with wood pellets. Fuel is 30 to 50% cheaper. It's a big hit in Europe.
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heat

Unread postby Homesteader » Tue 12 Aug 2008, 08:46:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '[')
The problem is that heating bills will drag the middle class, which is NOT eligible for emergency programs like this, down to the poverty line.


Thats a problem all right.

Perhaps the New ENgland states should make heating assistance available to all who need it, regardless of skin color or religous belief or ethnicity or income levels.

The $1200 energy emergency rebate check, just authorized here in Alaska for example, is going to go out to help every single citizen in the state. :)


Since New England doesn't have any oil fields how do you propose they raise the funds? Tax increase? Bonds?


Whoa--- you are starting with an erroneous assumption ---- in truth you don't know if New England has oil fields or not.

The democrats in Congress are blocking offshore exploration and the politicians in New England are also almost all resolutely against offshore oil exploration. So please don't claim "New England doesn't have any oil fields" when the fact of the matter is that New Englanders have never looked. :)


A big assumption? Maybe I should draw a picture. NO drilling rigs, no oil being pumped, no infrastructure for starters. Do they have oil deposits? Maybe, but that wasn't what I was referring to. And trust me, it isn't all about the democrats in New England. Additionally, since you blithely ASSume Massachusetts will bend over and take another tax increase read this:

http://www.taxfoundation.org/blog/show/23359.html

And this is the second attempt, the first of which didn't pass but got 45% of the vote.
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