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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Oil below $120 a barrel!

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Oil below $120 a barrel!

Unread postby ki11ercane » Wed 06 Aug 2008, 00:51:28

Watching where oil was and where it went, I think it will continue to slide, and may even hit close to $100.00 a barrel by the end of 2008 even though the experts predict $115.00 for 2008 and $100.00 for 2009. (I am thinking more $100.00 for 2008 and $85.00 for 2009) As has been indicated elsewhere, it's seems its no longer possible to properly gauge the market's behavior. It's all over the place.

If oil does close at $100.00 by the end of the year, this will only be a 30% increase from 2007 today. While this is a significant jump in the past 5 years, as I have said before here, the masses continue to fill ChinaMart, Hate Depot, and Rowna. Big trucks run on the road and gas stations are always queued. It seems our society is getting used to everything to be 30-50% more, and they will carry on. And no one cares at all.

What personally frustrates me is I consider "prepping" itself not only a life investment but also a fiscal one. While I do to acknowledge the reality of Peak Oil, when all the writing is on the wall to the masses, consumption is almost equal to production, prices continue to drop, and not much seems to be changing, it starts to pick in the back of my brain: "is spending all this money on the long term for all the things I need to do to "prep" going to be worth it? Am I really doing the right thing by sacrificing some facets of my future fiscal decisions (travel, etc.) to replace them with things that "might" come to pass? While I think there is a guy with a lit torch standing near the Financial Powder Keg, as prices continue to drop, he seems to be taking lots of steps back. The only positive thing I can see to this is the time frame from "now" to "SHTF" gets farther away. Good for us I guess? More time to prepare.

I don't want to see the world burn, but weeks/months such as these put me in a position where I start to question how soon things will start a fast slide, and am I focused on these goals too intensely. Should I back off?

My prepping, while beneficial for what may come, have morphed into more of a "life decision" as to how I want my life to be in the future. It just happens preparing for PO and my life direction happen to point the same way.

Having seen our May and June numbers come out this week, our sales are actually up, not down in the past 12 months. And I am in a recreational type of business.

Doesn't me sense.
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Re: Oil below $120 a barrel!

Unread postby shady28 » Fri 08 Aug 2008, 16:17:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ki11ercane', '
')...
While I do to acknowledge the reality of Peak Oil, when all the writing is on the wall to the masses, consumption is almost equal to production, prices continue to drop, and not much seems to be changing...



Be careful about drawing that kind of conclusion about a commodity. In general, one can always supply and demand are about equal.

In terms of oil, if you buy that 2007/2008 are the peak (quite possible) you have to consider another factor. Demand destruction via economic collapse. Historically, economic hardship can easily drop oil demand 8-12% in a single year. That is far faster than you are likely to see oil production drop globally, simply due to the long timespans involved in the current oil runup (100+ years).

The real measure is not "how much are we pumping / digging / growin", but "how much COULD we pump / drill / grow".

There is a definite difference between PRODUCTION and CAPACITY. Production will almost always equal demand. Capacity almost never equals demand. If capacity drops below demand, then you get major spikes in prices.

In my view, it looks like economic collapse's effect on demand is going to trump peak oil production capacity in terms of the capacity / demand equation for the next 5+ years.
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