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THE Heating Oil Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Heating oil sticker shock to hit New England

Postby MarkJ » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 10:18:23

Some homeowners idea of modern or efficient in the Northeast is a 20 to 30 year old boiler with a net efficiency of 40 percent. (if they're lucky) Many homes still have the original coal bins and wood or coal fired gravity furnace that was later retrofitted with a gas or oil burner in the 50s, 60s or 70s.

Homeowners also have no concept of time. We have customers with 15 to 25 year old systems that claim the systems are 5 to 10 years old. Boilers last so long that many customers won't replace them until they fail or become too expensive to repair.

Once customers invest money in new equipment, they often can't justify replacement or upgrades for decades even when the systems are oversized, inefficient and poorly designed. Bogus AFUE ratings and poor system designers, installers and service techs lead to millions of gallons of wasted fuel.
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Re: Heating oil sticker shock to hit New England

Postby frankthetank » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 10:22:43

Kpeavey-

Can you send me down too :) The baby cries a lot, but you'll get use to it 8O 8O

People up here don't know whats coming. Nobody realizes how high natural gas is right now and if it stays how much more a heating bill is going to be next year.
lawns should be outlawed.
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Home Energy Prices to "far exceed" last winter

Postby wisconsin_cur » Wed 06 Aug 2008, 06:30:22

CNBC

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n a season of roller-coaster energy costs, the drop in oil and natural gas prices in recent days was greeted as good news. But they remain so high that experts are predicting that heating bills this winter will far exceed those of last year.

Even after a precipitous decline from its peak in early July, the price of natural gas is still 11 percent above where it was last winter.

Heating oil is 36 percent higher, with the government projecting that the costs of both fuels will stay high. Electricity prices are also up moderately.

Higher heating costs will hit particularly hard in the Northeast, where many people use heating oil.

Given how unpredictable energy markets have become, most fuel dealers are not offering their customers price protection plans, or locked rates, as they typically do at this time of the year, said Dan Gilligan, president of the Petroleum Marketers Association of America, the biggest trade group for fuel retailers.

Locking in such protection makes sense in the summer when heating oil normally sells at a discount and consumers can expect prices to rise in the winter. This year, however, few households are willing to take a bet on where energy prices may be headed. Retail heating oil is selling today at around $4.50 a gallon, compared with $3.30 last winter and less than $2 a gallon only three years ago.
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Re: Home Energy Prices to "far exceed" last winter

Postby Ferretlover » Wed 06 Aug 2008, 08:10:19

On this month's gas bill (CenterPoint Energy), there was a notice that our budget paying amount would be changed starting next month from $72 per month to $143-this with absolutely NO change in our usage. That's what, about 50% increase?
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Re: Home Energy Prices to "far exceed" last winter

Postby ProudFossil » Wed 06 Aug 2008, 08:32:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'O')n this month's gas bill (CenterPoint Energy), there was a notice that our budget paying amount would be changed starting next month from $72 per month to $143-this with absolutely NO change in our usage. That's what, about 50% increase?


No, that is about a 98.611111111111111111111111111111% (give or take a few 1s) increase.

(143-72)/72
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Re: Home Energy Prices to "far exceed" last winter

Postby vision-master » Wed 06 Aug 2008, 08:34:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'O')n this month's gas bill (CenterPoint Energy), there was a notice that our budget paying amount would be changed starting next month from $72 per month to $143-this with absolutely NO change in our usage. That's what, about 50% increase?


Time for the log cabin in the woods. :cool:
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Re: Home Energy Prices to "far exceed" last winter

Postby Ferretlover » Wed 06 Aug 2008, 08:58:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ProudFossil', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'O')n this month's gas bill (CenterPoint Energy), there was a notice that our budget paying amount would be changed starting next month from $72 per month to $143-this with absolutely NO change in our usage. That's what, about 50% increase?

No, that is about a 98.611111111111111111111111111111% (give or take a few 1s) increase.(143-72)/72

lol Thanks, PF. I am Terrible at math!
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Re: Home Energy Prices to "far exceed" last winter

Postby frankthetank » Wed 06 Aug 2008, 09:02:15

I have Xcel here. I'll have to see what they are saying. I used natural gas 100% last winter because its cheap. Most i paid for a month was $150... I have a wood burner now, but no dry wood!
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Re: Home Energy Prices to "far exceed" last winter

Postby MarkJ » Wed 06 Aug 2008, 09:12:32

We booked a record amount of high efficiency boiler & indirect water heater installations this year. Seems 4 dollar heating oil is the psychological & financial threshold of pain that forces many to take corrective action.

We're at the point where people can't afford *NOT* to insulate, weatherize, replace windows and repalce their grossly oversized, grossly inefficient, poorly designed heat and hot water systems and/or use alternative/supplemental heat.

Many renters are going to be in for a shock this winter as well, as landlords in many areas are jacking rents to cover their increased heat and hot water costs. We've also performed a record amount of single-to-multiple boiler/water heater installations in multi-family rental properties since landlords don't want to pay for heat & hot water anymore. Tenants tend to use less hot water, keep windows closed and turn down thermostats when they're paying for heat out of their own pockets

I imagine we'll see a record amount of system failures, emergency service calls, emergency fuel deliveries, utility shut-offs, propane tank repossessions, fuel run-outs, frozen/burst boiler/water pipes, fires and carbon monoxide related calls due to neglect, money, credit, wood stoves, cold basements/crawl-spaces, space heaters etc.
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Re: Home Energy Prices to "far exceed" last winter

Postby ROCKMAN » Wed 06 Aug 2008, 10:03:31

Unfortunately folks may be talking about last winter as “the good ole days”. Last Jan NG was selling for $7.50/mcf at the well head. By early summer, the traditional low season, prices jumped to $13/mcf. Various reasons but the biggest was probably switching by utilities from fuel oil to NG. And remember, oil averaged $46/bbl in 2007. Regardless of the recent drop oil will average 2 to 3 time that much for the next 6 months. Not that the relationship is completely linear, but folks could see heating bills (FO, NG and electricity) twice as high as last winter. And if we get a colder then usually season it could be devastating for millions.
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Re: Home Energy Prices to "far exceed" last winter

Postby vision-master » Wed 06 Aug 2008, 10:12:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')any renters are going to be in for a shock this winter as well, as landlords in many areas are jacking rents to cover their increased heat and hot water costs. We've also performed a record amount of single-to-multiple boiler/water heater installations in multi-family rental properties since landlords don't want to pay for heat & hot water anymore. Tenants tend to use less hot water, keep windows closed and turn down thermostats when they're paying for heat out of their own pockets


Not a good time to be a landlord. Ran into an ol friend the other day. He said his 4 plex lost $100,000 in value within the last two years.
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Re: Home Energy Prices to "far exceed" last winter

Postby MarkJ » Wed 06 Aug 2008, 10:31:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')any renters are going to be in for a shock this winter as well, as landlords in many areas are jacking rents to cover their increased heat and hot water costs. We've also performed a record amount of single-to-multiple boiler/water heater installations in multi-family rental properties since landlords don't want to pay for heat & hot water anymore. Tenants tend to use less hot water, keep windows closed and turn down thermostats when they're paying for heat out of their own pockets


Not a good time to be a landlord. Ran into an ol friend the other day. He said his 4 plex lost $100,000 in value within the last two years.


Real estate values are regional/local in nature. I was offered 4X what I paid 10 years ago for one of my 12 unit apartment buildings.

High property values are a negative thing for some residential and commercial property owners like myself that aren't selling or borrowing since your property taxes are higher as well.
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Re: Home Energy Prices to "far exceed" last winter

Postby vision-master » Wed 06 Aug 2008, 14:34:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')eal estate values are regional/local in nature. I was offered 4X what I paid 10 years ago for one of my 12 unit apartment buildings.


You slumlord..........
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Re: Home Energy Prices to "far exceed" last winter

Postby MarkJ » Wed 06 Aug 2008, 17:10:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')eal estate values are regional/local in nature. I was offered 4X what I paid 10 years ago for one of my 12 unit apartment buildings.


You slumlord..........



This winter may force slumlords and landlords carrying a lot of debt out of the business. Many of the slumlords can't afford insulation, weatherization, windows, plus new heat & hot water systems.

I imagine we'll see a lot of tenants moving out of the unheated apartments with zero/poor insulation, old windows, 30% Net Efficiency 1950s heating systems, space heaters, electric baseboard heat etc.

It's a catch 22 situation since the tenants of slumlords generally can't afford higher rents, first/last/security and/or they don't have good income, good credit, work history and references necessary to rent a decent apartment in a decent area.

A Slow Burn


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')andlords gird for a heating season perhaps like none other. The squeeze could push apartment owners out of business, reduce available units and wring out municipal services. It's already raised rents.

On Wednesday, oil prices were $4.71 per gallon. And for the first time in Pelletier's memory, local landlords couldn't lock into a discounted rate from oil dealers. Last winter he used more than 10,000 gallons of fuel to keep his buildings and tenants warm. This year, he's not certain what he'll do.

"I know this, though: If I didn't own our buildings outright, I would serve eviction notices and close them down for the winter. That's how tight it is," he said.
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NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heating prices

Postby TheDude » Fri 08 Aug 2008, 02:21:46

Home Energy Prices Are Expected to Soar

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')The market has been completely turned on its head this summer,” said Andrew Heaney, who runs a New York heating oil cooperative, Heat USA. “I’ve been in this business for 15 years, and this is the most volatile we’ve ever seen.”

A recent editorial in a small-town Vermont newspaper warned of calamity. Record heating oil prices “could be New England’s own Katrina disaster,” wrote The Stowe Reporter.

“The cost of energy is getting out of reach,” said Mark Wolfe, the executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors’ Association, which represents state programs offering help to poor households.

“It’s not just going to affect poor people, but also moderate to middle-class households. People are going to become more impoverished to pay for heating this winter.”

Heating oil retailers face another problem. Given the nation’s credit crisis, many say they are finding it hard this year to get new credit lines from banks to help them cope with the rise in prices. As a result, they are not building inventory as much as they would in a normal year, Mr. Gilligan said. “The cost of hedging has become very pricey,” he said.

“People are going to have a tough time,” said David Moody, the dispatcher and a driver at Flynn’s Oil Company, a small distributor in Exeter, N.H. “We are trying to avoid having angry customers. Having angry customers before the start of winter, well, that’s not good business.”
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heating prices

Postby Plantagenet » Fri 08 Aug 2008, 03:01:58

Obama's energy plan will help.... he will give every family $1000 to help with the high energy costs.
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heat

Postby mos6507 » Fri 08 Aug 2008, 03:44:35

Yep, I'm expecting to blow a lot of my savings from living with my parents on subsidizing their heating bill this winter. After this next year, they are on their own and I'm off to homestead-land. If they don't fix this place up and sell it, it's their white elephant.
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heating prices

Postby cube » Fri 08 Aug 2008, 04:06:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'O')bama's energy plan will help.... he will give every family $1000 to help with the high energy costs.
do I smell a little bit of pandering going on here?
It is my observation that ALL the "energy plans" that were ever proposed have one thing in common, the assumption that the good times will keep on rolling.
Actually there was Jimmy Carter who told the truth by using words like "sacrifice, unpopular, inconvenience" first 2 minutes
//
If the government pays my energy bill, that just means a part of my money that normally would of gone to energy can now instead be used to buy beer, porn, and cigarettes. :)
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heating prices

Postby nobodypanic » Fri 08 Aug 2008, 04:39:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'O')bama's energy plan will help.... he will give every family $1000 to help with the high energy costs.
do I smell a little bit of pandering going on here?
It is my observation that ALL the "energy plans" that were ever proposed have one thing in common, the assumption that the good times will keep on rolling.
Actually there was Jimmy Carter who told the truth by using words like "sacrifice, unpopular, inconvenience" first 2 minutes
//
If the government pays my energy bill, that just means a part of my money that normally would of gone to energy can now instead be used to buy[s] beer, porn, and cigarettes.[/s] FOOD and GAS. :)

fixed that for you....
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Re: NYT: New England’s own Katrina disaster - heating prices

Postby idiom » Fri 08 Aug 2008, 04:44:16

Although Beer and Gas are slowly converging...
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