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$100 oil price is coming soon

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Unread postby JohnDenver » Tue 15 Mar 2005, 19:58:11

I'd take comments like these with a grain of salt. There's a lot of oil bulls out there who think oil is the new NASDAQ. Remember the dot-com bulls who kept pumping "NASDAQ 10,000"? The people pumping "oil $250" are the same people.
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Unread postby JohnDenver » Tue 15 Mar 2005, 20:04:01

[quote]Morgan Stanley may be among the most advanced of the new breed of oil speculators, but, over the past year, many banks and hedge funds have joined the “black gold rushâ€
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Re: $100 oil is coming soon

Unread postby airstrip1 » Tue 15 Mar 2005, 20:20:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NevadaGhosts', '[')b]Oil could gush to $100:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')It [$100 oil] is totally realistic within a year or two," said Stephen Leeb, who tracks oil for his own investment firm.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o, how realistic is more acceleration of oil prices?

"I don't think $100 is even a big deal," Leeb said. His long-term projection? Try $250 a barrel in six to nine years.


http://www.nydailynews.com/business/sto ... 8200c.html

The peak oil secret is coming out.


Question is at what price are people forced out of the market. At the moment governments have generated plenty of liquidity so there is lots of money to chase the price higher. If lines of credit are tightened some buyers will not be able to compete. At that stage demand destruction is going to set in. I personally still think that the first major impact of Peak Oil is going to be a financial crisis followed by a world wide economic depression.
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Re: $100 oil is coming soon

Unread postby JohnDenver » Tue 15 Mar 2005, 20:35:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('airstrip1', 'A')t the moment governments have generated plenty of liquidity so there is lots of money to chase the price higher.


Exactly. It's just another bubble forming, and those who bought into it recently have a vested interest in seeing it continue. They'll be blowing the "peak oil" horn as loud as they can, trying to lure the next wave of suckers into the oil market. Guys like Leeb need to disclose their conflicts of interest. He's no different from a sleazy "analyst" with a big stake in a dot-com stock issuing a buy rating.
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Re: $100 oil is coming soon

Unread postby JohnDenver » Tue 15 Mar 2005, 20:38:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('airstrip1', 'Q')uestion is at what price are people forced out of the market.


An even better question: At what price will hedge funds and multinational banks be forced out of the market?
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Unread postby Riverside » Tue 15 Mar 2005, 20:53:12

So what can the rural population do to "protect" themselves from higher fuel costs? Every one here owns a pick up of some kind. The closest town is 6 miles, closest small "city" (dr's and hospital, etc) is 30+. You need a gas guzzler because your daily life revolves around cutting and hauling wood, going to the dump,picking up feed, plowing your driveway, any maybe a little playing in the mud :-D The 20,000 miles per year is probably accurate around here.

What are the alternatives for people like this? I include myself in this group, but dh has a small car for going to work, 32 miles one way. How do you ride a bike to go pick up bales of hay? How do I get groceries for a family of 6 on a scooter when I go twice a month? How do I catch a bus when we don't even have bus service in my county?

This is something that people who have access to public transportation don't think about. My mother lived in Washington DC for almost 20 years, and never owned a car. She didn't have to, she just took the metro or walked.

As for heating oil, the ONE year we heated with it cost over $500 a month! (we did keep it about 68 since we had an infant) Last year we used kerosene, much cheaper, but only one room was warm (in the 50's and we had frozen pipes). This summer we installed an outdoor wood furnace, costs us about $150 for fuel so far, and that was for chainsaw repair & usage.
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Re: $100 oil is coming soon

Unread postby Jack » Tue 15 Mar 2005, 21:03:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('airstrip1', 'Q')uestion is at what price are people forced out of the market.


An even better question: At what price will hedge funds and multinational banks be forced out of the market?


Forced out by price? No, that won't happen. Forced out when their equity is destroyed by market action outside their expectations...that's possible. Forced out by government fiat is also possible.

The problem is, when they come out, you can expect to see billions vaporize. Whether the Fed can bail them out is questionable. The viability of the current financial structure could be in trouble.

(No, more than usual! 8) )
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Unread postby generikan » Tue 15 Mar 2005, 21:46:49

well guys, they say, Freedom isnt free

i mean, [iraqi] freedom isnt free
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Unread postby Tyler_JC » Tue 15 Mar 2005, 22:27:52

The danger level is $78 a barrel. That was the price of oil in today's dollars for a barrel of crude at its all-time high in 1979-1980. When Fox News is unable to compare today's high prices to history and find a positive comparison, that's a problem.

We can't have our media sources telling us that we have reached another all-time record high. That would be counter-revolutionary :shock: !
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Unread postby TrueKaiser » Tue 15 Mar 2005, 23:55:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Barbara', 'C')ome on, stop with these lamenting and crying and complaining, we have $6 here and everybody is in the street making LOT of traffic without so many problems.
You'll simply get used!


yup. i am a american, but i realize that even at high prices people will still pay.
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Unread postby JLA » Wed 16 Mar 2005, 01:25:50

20k miles is probably more than the average American drives in a year. But, your figures are interesting nonetheless.
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Unread postby Xelat » Wed 16 Mar 2005, 06:18:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NevadaGhosts', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'z')oom off on the only vehicle on the road consuming no fossil fuels


But you are. It takes fossil fuels to grow the food you eat to power your bicycle. :shock:

(Unless you grow all of the food you eat) :)


BAH. The additional calories consumed by me for a 20mile trip would be about 500. Even if 5000 calories of fossil fuel were consumed to create those calories (probably about right) I'm looking at 1000s of miles to the gallon. Plus my bicycle embodies less energy than your scooter, less upkeep and less expertise for that upkeep (basically none) blahb lahblahblaha lbha

scooters are good - I got no problem with them.

I'm going to sleep
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Unread postby Antimatter » Wed 16 Mar 2005, 07:40:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xelat', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NevadaGhosts', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'z')oom off on the only vehicle on the road consuming no fossil fuels


But you are. It takes fossil fuels to grow the food you eat to power your bicycle. :shock:

(Unless you grow all of the food you eat) :)


BAH. The additional calories consumed by me for a 20mile trip would be about 500. Even if 5000 calories of fossil fuel were consumed to create those calories (probably about right) I'm looking at 1000s of miles to the gallon. Plus my bicycle embodies less energy than your scooter, less upkeep and less expertise for that upkeep (basically none) blahb lahblahblaha lbha

scooters are good - I got no problem with them.

I'm going to sleep


Food calories are actually kilocalories. So the 500 kilocalories to pedal the bike works out to about 2 megajoules, or 20 megajoules going by the 10:1 oil:food ratio. A litre of petrol is about 33 megajoules so you're using the equivalent about 600mL of petrol to go 32km. Works out to about 1.8 litres per 100km or 130mpg for you yanks. :razz: A hybrid scooter could beat that, but I think I'll keep my $20 road bike for the moment. 8)
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Unread postby lawnchair » Wed 16 Mar 2005, 08:36:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'T')he danger level is $78 a barrel. That was the price of oil in today's dollars for a barrel of crude at its all-time high in 1979-1980. When Fox News is unable to compare today's high prices to history and find a positive comparison, that's a problem.

We can't have our media sources telling us that we have reached another all-time record high. That would be counter-revolutionary :shock: !


Actually, it'll have to be a few $ past that before they stop making the claim. Y'See, $78 oil will cause enough inflation (petrol up, food getting more expensive, clothes more expensive, heck... movie tickets more expensive so the studio rats can keep filling up their Hummers) to push the silly figure to possibly $83.

Eventually, we do catch up, when a higher percentage of our gross spending is spent on crude oil than was in 1979. But, the target keeps moving for a while.
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Unread postby smiley » Wed 16 Mar 2005, 09:25:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'d take comments like these with a grain of salt. There's a lot of oil bulls out there who think oil is the new NASDAQ. Remember the dot-com bulls who kept pumping "NASDAQ 10,000"? The people pumping "oil $250" are the same people.


I agree. Anyone who says that he/she is "bullish" on oil usually doesn't have a clue what he/she's talking about. Most likely you'll find that they derive their prediction by feverishly drawing lines on some price/time charts, calculating RSI indicators, Fibonacci levels etc.

Usually they don't even bother to look at the real demand/supply picture.
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Unread postby Xelat » Wed 16 Mar 2005, 14:02:52

are you sure you have the units right here? I'm going to go figure this out later.

[edit - he's right. Goddamn I would never have imagined that my energy output was anywhere near the scale of that of a scooter or car. This really illuminates how bad the food situation is if a cyclist is only getting 130mpg. We gotta stop pumpinh NG into every stupid tomato.]
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Unread postby Sys1 » Wed 16 Mar 2005, 14:16:42

Carpooling is something great. End of selfish SUV, now people will go TOGETHER from a place to another.
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Unread postby ernest » Wed 16 Mar 2005, 15:11:59

Yes, in a year or two, most likely, one of the most significant financial impacts in America will be the multi billion dollar loss in value of the already purchased large SUV's. And Ford and GM are both pushing larger ones for next year! Though at least Ford is building a hybrid, and GM is going out of business.
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Unread postby JoeW » Wed 16 Mar 2005, 15:49:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ernest', ' ')one of the most significant financial impacts in America will be the multi billion dollar loss in value of the already purchased large SUV's.


It depends on how you look at it. The automotive industry is a bellwether for the US economy as a whole. If rising gas prices mean that gas-sipping (or diesel-sipping?) vehicles are flying off the lots, then the US automakers will still be doing good business, which bodes well for the US economy as a whole. The real question is whether US automakers can compete with imports in terms of fuel economy, if fuel economy were to become a key factor to buyers.

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Unread postby pilferage » Wed 16 Mar 2005, 16:27:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Antimatter', 'F')ood calories are actually kilocalories. So the 500 kilocalories to pedal the bike works out to about 2 megajoules, or 20 megajoules going by the 10:1 oil:food ratio. A litre of petrol is about 33 megajoules so you're using the equivalent about 600mL of petrol to go 32km. Works out to about 1.8 litres per 100km or 130mpg for you yanks. :razz: A hybrid scooter could beat that, but I think I'll keep my $20 road bike for the moment. 8)


That's very interesting, with the implication that the human body is about 10 times as efficient as a scooter's engine. Of course we're ignoring the idea that most people wouldn't need to adjust their caloric intake to bike, just their diets. We American's overeat a wee bit... :P
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