[Tyler_JC]

What the heck is a speculator, anyway?

Is SouthWest Airlines a speculator because they purchased a bunch of long term fuel contracts back in the early 2000s?

I have a hard time believing that abolishing the futures market will lead to anything but chaos.

Secondly, what happens to the oil ETF funds?

Are pensioners, life insurance companies, mutual funds, and millions of small investors going to see their savings pillaged by the government?

If the futures market is really abolished, I suspect a lot of innocent people are in for a shock next time they look at their 401Ks.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I')s SouthWest Airlines a speculator because they purchased a bunch of long term fuel contracts back in the early 2000s?

[JohnDenver]

Some tasty nuggets for all my commodity bull buddies at peakoil.com. Enjoy!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Global energy and raw-materials stocks fell into bear markets after plunging oil, gold, copper and wheat prices spurred declines in last year's best-performing industries.
[...]
"Commodities prices have hit a choking point,'' said Nader Naeimi, a Sydney-based senior investment strategist at AMP Capital Investors, which manages about $108 billion. "With further evidence of slowing growth there'll be ongoing pressure on mining and resources stocks.''
[...]
"The perception that the global economy is slowing is damping demand for commodities,'' said Park Sehick, a fund manager at Hanwha Investment Trust Management Co. in Seoul, which holds $1 billion in equities. Commodity prices "will keep on falling from here,'' he said.

[Cashmere]

Patience young man, patience.

[Heineken]

I'm enjoying loading up on the tasty nuggets I so love.

It's a two-fer sale!

[mattduke]

We've enjoyed nine double-digit drop buying opportunities in oil equities since 2005.

link

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')rude was the last to turn after peaking at $147 early last month.

[coyote]

Look at all the yummy red rolling down the page...

Bloomberg commodities

Maybe this time I'll actually have the guts to trust myself and jump in at the right time.

[Heineken]

The next thing we will hear is that SUV sales are creeping back up.

The stupidity will go on, in a long, down-spiraling cycle.

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mattduke', 'W')e've enjoyed nine double-digit drop buying opportunities in oil equities since 2005.

link

[smartyram]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mattduke', 'W')e've enjoyed nine double-digit drop buying opportunities in oil equities since 2005.

link

[ReducedToZero]

Yeah I put chips in USO last week and ill definately put some more if goes to $100

[sameu]

You must be dissapointed JD, since you have always claimed that high prices are necessary and are a positive thing

[smallpoxgirl]

Seems to me this just might be related to a graph you posted a couple of weeks ago JD:



For a couple of years now, economic activity has been proceeding unchecked despite shrinking supplies of a variety of natural resources. The inevitable result of that is skyrocketing commodity prices. Now world economies are starting to falter causing commodity prices to fall. Eventually those two lines will start to move in tandem down and commodity prices will stabilize.

[mattduke]

I think the concept of a numeric value for GDP is bunk, I don't care what the Economics 101 books say.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mattduke', 'I') think the concept of a numeric value for GDP is bunk, I don't care what the Economics 101 books say.

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mattduke', 'I') think the concept of a numeric value for GDP is bunk, I don't care what the Economics 101 books say.

[frankthetank]

You forgot the boat, atv, snowmobile, snowblower, riding lawnmower, trailer....

You are exactly right. If you live a BASIC life today, it isn't horrible. My wife and I kind of live that lifestyle, with a few of todays "necessities".

[MrMambo]

The markets focus on short term supply/demand changes and send oilprices tumbling down to 20 month lows as IEA revises short to medium term demand outlook sharply down because of the financial crisis.

I don't know how long term futures are moving.. because I'm very curious about how 2010 prices are moving today. Any intelligent person reading about the current oil production decline rates described in the IEA World Energy Outlook 2008 summary would conclude that within the next few years prices are likely to go significantly up even with a continuation of the current recession.

The fall in consumption in the western world will be eaten up by increased consumption in China, India and Oil-exporting nations. China is not going from 10% annual growth to negative growth overnight, and with their recently announced crisis-plan to boost inland activivity by hundreds of billions of dollars over the next few years we should se oil demand increasing rather than falling in China. This increase has to be provided through export. And with export from Opec countries being increasingly eaten up by internal consumption, the amount of oil available on the world market is bound to be increasingly tight.


I belive current price levels does not accurately reflect the supply demand situation.

1) Prices have not sufficiently reacted to announced Opec supply cuts.
2) The financial crisis where cash is king any asset that can easilly be liquidated and turned into dollars is sold off. That is why all assets have been falling simultaniously and the dollar is extreemly strong. That is why even good companies with strong profits, and valuable commodities see their price fall below their actual value.
3) The focus on short term supply/demand in the USA is still too important for day to day price setting. Short term price swings are often over-reactions to buildups and dropoffs in American oiltanks.

I have a small but limited hope that longer term prices are based on a more global supply/demand understanding. Could market players actually set prices more rationally on a longer perspective?

So I would appreciate a link to where I could check out oil-future trading in 2010 and beyond.