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The last mile and PO

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The last mile and PO

Postby cube » Sun 03 Aug 2008, 10:57:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '.')..
I was on vacation and went to Seattle WA to see what there was to see a couple weeks ago and discovered that at least several of their down town bus routes are duel fueld, diesel and cantenary wire electric. This got me to thinking about long haul trucking, which in essence uses the same volume vehicle as one of those large articulated city busses. I could see a slight possibillity of the government putting up cantenary wires in a special truck lane on the federal highways and having all the trucks using that lane tracked by GPS and billed for the electricity consumed.
Something like this but a big rig truck equivalent?
This is a picture of a pure electric bus but I know what your talking about with the "diesel electric buses".
Image
BTW I live in Seattle and there's a bus that takes me straight to downtown, electric powered too. (runs every 10min during peak hours)
The "environmentalist - wackos" are upset because the electricity comes from hydro-electric dams which is killing off the salmon.
They are always petitioning to knock down a dam.
Some people are never pleased, now you know why I do NOT take "environmentalists" seriously. :roll:
//
Back to trucking: making a non-technical argument:

Imagine you lost your job and the best you could do afterwards was get a part time job that only paid half as much.
What will you cut back on?
What will you continue to spend your reduced income on?

I think PO is going to be the same way.
Society will be forced to make a financial decision.
What will society cut back on?
What will society continue to spend it's reduced income on?
I think long haul trucking should be one of those things that we let go.
There are more important things to spend our money on.
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Re: The last mile and PO

Postby RedStateGreen » Sun 03 Aug 2008, 20:45:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', '
')
I'm convinced that the answers to PO lie in a multitude of small solutions, not a magic, one-dose breakthrough.


I agree, it's what's been shown to happen in every country that has gone through something similar -- a combination of innovations rather than one huge solution.
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Re: The last mile and PO

Postby Tanada » Sun 03 Aug 2008, 20:50:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '.')..
I was on vacation and went to Seattle WA to see what there was to see a couple weeks ago and discovered that at least several of their down town bus routes are duel fueld, diesel and cantenary wire electric. This got me to thinking about long haul trucking, which in essence uses the same volume vehicle as one of those large articulated city busses. I could see a slight possibillity of the government putting up cantenary wires in a special truck lane on the federal highways and having all the trucks using that lane tracked by GPS and billed for the electricity consumed.
Something like this but a big rig truck equivalent?
This is a picture of a pure electric bus but I know what your talking about with the "diesel electric buses".
Image
BTW I live in Seattle and there's a bus that takes me straight to downtown, electric powered too. (runs every 10min during peak hours)
Back to trucking: making a non-technical argument:

Imagine you lost your job and the best you could do afterwards was get a part time job that only paid half as much.
What will you cut back on?
What will you continue to spend your reduced income on?

I think PO is going to be the same way.
Society will be forced to make a financial decision.
What will society cut back on?
What will society continue to spend it's reduced income on?
I think long haul trucking should be one of those things that we let go.
There are more important things to spend our money on.


I saw a bus just like that one Cube, but I was thinking of the articulated ones you guys use out there with the extension behind the back axle to add a passenger section and third axle.

I agree long haul trucking is likely to dissipear, cantenary power is the only way I can think of it might be economically viable in a PO world.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: The last mile and PO

Postby patience » Sun 03 Aug 2008, 21:25:03

A lot of things are going to have to localize to get past the last-mile problem. Farmers here routinely haul hay 10 to 20 miles to sell. Last year due to drought here, some hay came in from Nebraska to Indiana by truck. They now use round balers that are energy intensive to get around the lack of willing teenagers that used to handle small square bales. That in turn was an energy intensive solution to the toil of making hay with horse drawn rakes and pitchforks to put in on a wagon, then into a stack. Eventually we'll go full circle there, and hauling hay to the neighbor's will be about it for transport.
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Re: The last mile and PO

Postby MrBill » Mon 04 Aug 2008, 10:17:22

Cube, in Nepal a lot of goods cover the last mile (or hundred) on foot. If labor is cheap enough. I foresee a lot of regional distribution networks supplied by water and rail, and a lot less just in time (JIT) distribution. Larger, less frequent loads. More inventory by design.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')aradigm, which specializes in the highly controlled business of transporting perishable goods such as beef and produce, is a niche player in the third-party transportation logistics market. So-called 3PLs allow manufacturers and retailers to deal with a single point of contact to get their products on the fastest and most cost-effective routes.

“Private fleets in smaller companies are in decline,” says Chris Kuehl, chief economist for the Rockford, Illinois-based Fabricators and Manufacturers Association, which represents companies in the metal forming and fabricating industries. “Fuel costs are certainly accelerating that.”

For small to mid-sized companies, which frequently lack the purchasing muscle or volume to shop for the best price, using a 3PL can make a big difference to the bottom line. Kuehl says members of his association have seen savings of 5 to 20 percent on their logistics costs by outsourcing, depending on how complex their systems were prior to the switchover.

Outsourcing allows the companies to focus on manufacturing and marketing their products, rather than servicing trucks and tracking goods. Adding to the incentive are federal emissions compliance standards, set to become more stringent in 2010, and a shortage of qualified truckers.

continued

Ryder, for instance, often works in collaboration with its customers to prompt operational changes that take advantage of economies in the transportation market. In recent months, the company helped Intirion Corp., a Walpole, Massachusetts-based manufacture of appliances such as the MicroFridge combination refrigerator/freezer/microwave, benefit from the cheaper cost of rail. Intirion has boosted its rail shipments to about 35 percent from a prior 10 percent, says Jim Russo, the company’s vice president and general manager.

But because train shipments are slower – a West Coast to East Coast trip can take two weeks on the rails versus three to four days over the road – Intirion had to make up the time by accelerating its manufacturing.

“We’re modifying the quantities we’re producing, modifying the timing of when the production is done,” says Russo. “That allows us to build up inventories to bring to rail.”


source: Driving the goods to market
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Re: The last mile and PO

Postby cube » Mon 04 Aug 2008, 10:23:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'I') saw a bus just like that one Cube, but I was thinking of the articulated ones you guys use out there with the extension behind the back axle to add a passenger section and third axle.
articulated buses / informally called "bendy buses"
Image
I think bendy buses will be more common in the future as driving becomes more expensive.
A pic of buses used in London
Image
How much capacity can a bus route like this deliver?
assume a 4 minute "headway"
or 15 buses per hour / lane of roadway
149people/bus X 15buses/hr == 2,235 people/hr
IMHO that's more capacity then what 95% of what anybody would ever need.
In terms of "problems" the world will be facing public transit capacity is somewhere near the bottom of the list. 8)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '
')I agree long haul trucking is likely to dissipear, cantenary power is the only way I can think of it might be economically viable in a PO world.
I think there's going to be a massive fight to grab the last remaining piece of the economic pie. EVERYBODY from teachers demanding more chalk boards to Navy admirals demanding more aircraft carriers will be fighting tooth and nail for a shrinking tax base. It will be interesting to see who gets how much of what!
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Re: The last mile and PO

Postby Snowrunner » Mon 04 Aug 2008, 13:59:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '
')In terms of "problems" the world will be facing public transit capacity is somewhere near the bottom of the list. 8)


That depends really. Here in Vancouver people now start screaming for more public transit as the gas prices have gone up, yet nobody was willing 10+ years ago to put the money INTO the system.

This continues even now. They are going to build a new bridge for quite a lot of money to replace an older one, instead of making it transit and pedestrian and bike friendly it'll be another car centric solution.

Overall public transit in North America WILL be a problem, both capacity and distance wise because you won't be building these system overnight. Vancouver is getting a new Skytrain line to Richmond and the Airport, this will take ~3 years to build and it is only that fast because of the Olympics in 2010, without them this line would still be buried in red tape not to mention the NIMBY crowd and "tax payers for paying less taxes" groups.
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Re: The last mile and PO

Postby cube » Mon 04 Aug 2008, 17:35:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snowrunner', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'I')n terms of "problems" the world will be facing public transit capacity is somewhere near the bottom of the list.
That depends really. Here in Vancouver people now start screaming for more public transit as the gas prices have gone up, yet nobody was willing 10+ years ago to put the money INTO the system.
Don't worry once half the world population dies-off there will be less people alive to complain. :twisted:
*some may disagree with me on this*
IMHO The biggest issue is LOS (level of service) and NOT capacity.
There's enough space on the bus for extra people and another bus can always be added if enough paying passengers show up to support it.
What's holding people back is they want an "Ecotopia" fantasy.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he arrangement of stations is such that you can "walk five minutes to your transit station, take a train within five minutes to a town ten stops away, and then walk another five minutes to your destination... [leaving behind] parking, traffic, and of course the pollution." (p. 30).
I have NO SYMPATHY for society because their wants are ridiculously impossible.
What society wants is to live in an American style McMansion and be able to walk to a train station like they're in the middle of Paris.
Sorry folks that will never happen.
And if people don't get their way then they act like a bunch of cry babies and ask their politicians to give them the impossible.
I'll say it again, I have NO SYMPATHY for society.
//
Now OTOH if people say........."I'm willing to move into a 3 story apartment complex and wait 10 minutes for a bus."
Then my advice is come to Seattle!
This city is building condos like crazy and embracing new-urbanism.
Maybe the people on the planning commission visit this website and are PO aware, who knows?
Unfortunately there is no 5 minute bus, not even in the downtown where people live in 7 story condo complexes....but there is a 7 minute bus. :wink:
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Re: The last mile and PO

Postby Twilight » Mon 04 Aug 2008, 17:56:10

Legend has it, the busiest bus corridor in the world is in Manchester city center, UK.

Photo 1

Photo 2

Seating and standing room for about 80 people on each, and they do run full during peak hours. Once there was gridlock and they were bumper to bumper for a mile. I got off, walked for 15 minutes and got to my destination first. It is rarely that bad though. But it is pricey - works out at 50p per mile, and no McMansions in sight.
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Re: The last mile and PO

Postby cube » Mon 04 Aug 2008, 18:00:30

ouch!
I think a transport technology is like a tool.
You need the right tool for the right job.
What works in one situation may not work for another.

In Seattle people like their bendy buses.
It's part of the city's identity, maybe not so much as say the cable cars are to San Francisco.
I've never been out of the USA but even I know of London's famous Routemasters.
Perhaps London without Routemasters is like San Francisco without cable cars.

A politician should expect a French Revolution for daring to suggest it's elimination! :wink:
I don't think there's anything "wrong" with a bendy bus. It has proven it's worth in many other cities.
Perhaps it's just not meant for London?
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Re: The last mile and PO

Postby cube » Mon 04 Aug 2008, 18:17:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'L')egend has it, the busiest bus corridor in the world is in Manchester city center, UK.
Image
magic bus???
any relation to the Knight Bus in Harry Potter? :wink:
Image
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Re: The last mile and PO

Postby Twilight » Mon 04 Aug 2008, 19:25:14

Nice caricature. No way would that be stable, let alone fit under bridges. The top deck must be cosmetic.
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Re: The last mile and PO

Postby Denny » Mon 04 Aug 2008, 20:48:30

It would be interesting to capture people's experiences who lived through World War II on this matter.

I wasn't there, but I know most consumer goods were in very limited supply, and transport was in especially tight supply. Regular people were mostly limited to 3 gallons of gas per week, do did a lot of car pooling. Exceptions were made for doctors, farmers and ministers as a lot of their work required travel. (Remember when doctors did house calls?) But, I am not so clear on how goods deliveries were made.

Apparently, the principal rationale for the rationing of fuel was actually to conserve rubber. Most rubber was committed to the war production. Consumers could not even replace a tire during the war, regardless of how much fuel rations they had. And, no new automobiles were built from 1942 (1941 in Canada) until the end of 1945.
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Re: The last mile and PO

Postby r101958 » Mon 04 Aug 2008, 21:02:34

you might enjoy this story. it happened rather recently:

http://www.backpackfever.com/2008/01/21 ... -meltdown/
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Re: The last mile and PO

Postby Denny » Thu 07 Aug 2008, 20:18:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GASMON', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'P')erhaps it's just not meant for London?


Manchester - 20 miles away, a VERY GOOD bus, tram and train network. A day return ticket on the train for Wife, myself & 3 kids is £9.00. ($4.50).

I think you mean $18. Right?

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Re: The last mile and PO

Postby BlueGhostNo2 » Sun 10 Aug 2008, 07:05:36

The Independent, return of UK shipping

So, looks like these things are already happening.
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Re: The last mile and PO

Postby MrBill » Mon 11 Aug 2008, 03:29:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')u]British Waterways regards itself primarily as a "heritage and leisure organisation", and critics say it fails to give sufficient priority to freight. Vital wharves are being sold for waterfront development schemes, according to transport experts. In central Leeds, aggregates firm Lafarge's lease on a wharf on the Aire & Calder canal was not renewed as the land had been marked for development. The firm was forced to build a new wharf outside the city, transporting its sand and gravel into Leeds by lorry.


This is exactly why I have zero faith in government's ability to change and adapt to new economic realities in a timely manner. They cannot lead and they cannot get out of the way.
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