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Mexico collapse watch thread

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby socrates1fan » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 21:17:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('manu', 'M')aybe for awhile they will all head North. Then as there is less oil and a cold winter, the hordes will move South. Sort of what the Buffalo did before their die-off.


I'm not sure that would be wise for migrant workers.
Up here in the north the line of division between illegals(not mexicans) and citizens(or legal immigrants) has widened greatly.
If I were an 'illegal' migrant worker I would not want to go North.
As open as people are up here(or at the least tolerant) people have lost their sympathy for the poor illegal immigrants and now are thinking 'what about the poor citizens?!'.
It is an ugly mess.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby socrates1fan » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 21:19:04

I think that as Mexico collapses many more immigrants are going to head north.
The thing is by that time I don't think Americans will be as tolerant of illegal immigration as they were 5 years ago. As the economy gets worse they will be lucky to get past the border states.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby TheDude » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 23:37:17

MEXICO : Pemex Oozes Corruption

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Pemex is a can of worms. If you do something right, they come after you; if you shut up about some irregularity, they reward you; and if you take part in the corruption, you profit," a Pemex worker told IPS.

"I’m not saying everything is like that -- there are also honest people," added the worker, whose name is withheld for his safety.

The employee said that after he replaced several worn-out parts of a gas valve, a group of internal auditors criticised his work, saying they had found "too many foreign parts," and ordered him to put the originals back in place.

He said that when his boss protested, he was accused of a bias in favour of a private supplier and an investigation against him was launched.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ocuments from the Auditoria Superior de la Federacion (Federal Audit Office), which were seen by IPS, show that in 2006 alone -- the last year for which information is available -- 157 million dollars were detected in expenses in exploration and the payment of services that had not been duly approved and explained, and which have not yet been clarified.

Lawmakers from the opposition Progressive Broad Front, an alliance of leftwing parties, are calling for the creation of a "truth commission" to carry out an in-depth investigation of causes of corruption and specific cases in Pemex before any reform can be approved.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n July 2007, Pemex director Raul Munoz was fined 80 million dollars and banned from holding public office for 10 years, for the misuse of funds and the illegal transfer of more than 170 million dollars to the oil workers union.

Munoz also used12,500 dollars in Pemex funds to pay for two liposuction surgeries for his wife.

There are abundant books and investigative reports showing that trade union leaders, used occasionally as allies by recent governments, obtain special funds that go towards things like building vacation homes or buying first-class airplane tickets.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby Peleg » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 01:58:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '[')url=http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=42274]MEXICO : Pemex Oozes Corruption[/url]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Pemex is a can of worms. If you do something right, they come after you; if you shut up about some irregularity, they reward you; and if you take part in the corruption, you profit," a Pemex worker told IPS.

"I’m not saying everything is like that -- there are also honest people," added the worker, whose name is withheld for his safety.

The employee said that after he replaced several worn-out parts of a gas valve, a group of internal auditors criticised his work, saying they had found "too many foreign parts," and ordered him to put the originals back in place.

He said that when his boss protested, he was accused of a bias in favour of a private supplier and an investigation against him was launched.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ocuments from the Auditoria Superior de la Federacion (Federal Audit Office), which were seen by IPS, show that in 2006 alone -- the last year for which information is available -- 157 million dollars were detected in expenses in exploration and the payment of services that had not been duly approved and explained, and which have not yet been clarified.

Lawmakers from the opposition Progressive Broad Front, an alliance of leftwing parties, are calling for the creation of a "truth commission" to carry out an in-depth investigation of causes of corruption and specific cases in Pemex before any reform can be approved.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n July 2007, Pemex director Raul Munoz was fined 80 million dollars and banned from holding public office for 10 years, for the misuse of funds and the illegal transfer of more than 170 million dollars to the oil workers union.

Munoz also used12,500 dollars in Pemex funds to pay for two liposuction surgeries for his wife.

There are abundant books and investigative reports showing that trade union leaders, used occasionally as allies by recent governments, obtain special funds that go towards things like building vacation homes or buying first-class airplane tickets.


Is this a surprise? What about that missing 1.5 trillion dollars from the Defense Department? That's alot of gin fizz boys!
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby ReducedToZero » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 02:19:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', 'W')ell may be his salary/income is cut a bit too far thanks to Hispanics? May be he is a construction worker or something.

By the way have anyone wondered how much time nationwide is lost due to "For English, press 1; para Espanol, presione 2"
Per day? Per month? Per year? Per lifetime?



Partially unrelated but your second statement reminded me of something my professor was talking about during a lecture in my Values and Technologies humanities class. We were learning about the telephone and the history of the telephone and he brought up an interesting point about how when you call someone on a cellphone and they dont answer, the phone literally takes 10 seconds to give you options such as "If youd like to fax press 1, if youd like to leave a voice message press 2 or wait for the beep" He claimed that entire system was to add time and pick pennies off of every cellphone call and resulted into billions of dollars for the cellphone companies.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby Cynus » Wed 09 Jul 2008, 12:37:06

Mexico City police chief, top prosecutor quit

LA Times

MEXICO CITY -- The capital city's police chief and head prosecutor resigned Tuesday amid growing public outrage over a bungled bar raid that resulted in 12 deaths.

The resignation of Police Chief Joel Ortega and prosecutor Rodolfo Felix came the same day the city's Human Rights Commission issued a scathing denunciation of the deadly law enforcement crackdown last month on a club packed with teenagers celebrating the end of the school year.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby mos6507 » Wed 09 Jul 2008, 13:57:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cynus', 'M')exico City police chief, top prosecutor quit

LA Times

MEXICO CITY -- The capital city's police chief and head prosecutor resigned Tuesday amid growing public outrage over a bungled bar raid that resulted in 12 deaths.

The resignation of Police Chief Joel Ortega and prosecutor Rodolfo Felix came the same day the city's Human Rights Commission issued a scathing denunciation of the deadly law enforcement crackdown last month on a club packed with teenagers celebrating the end of the school year.


I guess if you want the latest news on mexico, the Los Angeles Times is the first place to turn. ;)
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby TheDude » Wed 30 Jul 2008, 03:35:42

Mexico sees decline in migrant remittances

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')EXICO CITY (AP) — Half-year figures are expected to show the first sustained decline on record in remittances sent home by Mexicans working abroad, officials said.

The downturn in U.S. housing construction and stepped-up immigration raids have made it tougher for migrants to find jobs, and less able to send money home. Mexico's Central Bank is scheduled to release figures on the remittance flow on Wednesday.

Jesus Cervantes, director of economic measurement for Mexico's central bank, said remittances are expected to decline 1.5 percent to 2 percent for 2008 as a whole over the previous year.

Cervantes said that would be the first such sustained drop since a reliable tally has been kept.


Second largest source of funds after oil exports. Next is tourism. Brother can you spare a tortilla? I find the EIA lists oil sales as 1/3 of government revenue, in contrast to the 40% you see in the media.

We don't want your stinking drill rigs! Mexican voters oppose Calderon's plan for oil industry

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')urnout was light, but voters in a nonbinding referendum gave an overwhelming "no" to President Felipe Calderon's proposal to give private firms a bigger role in Mexico's government-controlled petroleum industry, reports the L.A. Times' Marla Dickerson.

More than 80% of those who cast ballots Sunday in Mexico City opposed the plan, according to the official tally of the federal district released Monday. The results were even more lopsided outside the capital, where nine of Mexico's 31 states also participated. With about two-thirds of the ballots counted, more than 90% of those voters gave the president's proposal a thumbs down.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby medicvet » Sat 02 Aug 2008, 03:53:21

The only thing that surprises me about all this is how little mention is made of the immigrants coming not just from Mexico, but from nations in Central America. The numbers of illegal immigrants from nations such as Honduras, Nicuragua, and El Salvador continue in mass numbers...fleeing the grinding poverty and the dangerous druglords who literally 'own' towns..and when one drug lord fights another, it is the townspeople who suffer..and many who leave.
Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe.-H.G. Wells

The only basis for a nation’s prosperity is a religious regard for the rights of others. - ISOCRATES
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby Pretorian » Sat 02 Aug 2008, 09:39:20

By the way had anyone noticed how fast is growing peso vs USD, meantime USD was growing against aud, jpy and cad, and chf? I mean last 2 weeks or so.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby Cynus » Sun 03 Aug 2008, 13:14:58

Mexican drug cartels now doing business on US soil
MEXICO CITY - Powerful Mexican cartels have assumed control of drug distribution networks throughout the United States, sparking worry from US law enforcement and analysts that they may export the same violent methods that have ravaged Mexico for years.
US federal officials say the Mexican cartels operate in dozens of US cities, and analysts say they are moving to consolidate their control of the entire supply chain of illegal drugs.
.
The Zetas, former Mexican soldiers who have become the armed wing of the Gulf Cartel, have been linked to killings along the Texas side of the border and as far north as Dallas, according to court records and press accounts. The Sinaloa Cartel has been linked to the local Houston drug trade. And in Phoenix, suspected Mexican traffickers dressed as the Phoenix Police SWAT team recently attacked a home with high caliber weapons.
.
Drug violence associated with the cartels, although on a vastly smaller scale, has begun to emerge in the Atlanta area. Gwinnett County has seen about nine drug-related kidnappings this year, including a man who was bound and chained in a basement in the town of Lilburn.
.
Burton said there has been a spike in kidnappings along the Texas border. "We don't know how many have been kidnapped, but guesstimates by local law enforcement puts abductions in border towns at four to eight a week," he said. "They are snatched in the US and taken to Mexico."

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/artic ... il/?page=2
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby TheDude » Sun 10 Aug 2008, 02:44:25

Mexico border city begins fines for US diesel buying

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ssociated Press
Aug. 9, 2008, 12:36PM

MEXICO CITY — Authorities in the Mexican border city of Ciudad Acuna have started a program to discourage Americans from crossing the border to fill up extra drum, tanks or barrels with subsidized Mexican diesel fuel.

The city government says it has fined Americans in four cases and would impound their vehicles until they pay the fines. Ciudad Acuna is located across the border from Del Rio, Texas.

The city also says it has started informing U.S. drivers that filling up the tanks of their own vehicles is fine, but carrying extra containers home with fuel is a violation of customs and export rules and in some cases is a safety violation.

The city said in a written report on Friday that the first fines were handed out this week. It said city officials would set up information stands to advise visitors about the policy.

The fines being levied were equivalent to 70 percent of the value of the diesel confiscated.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 10 Aug 2008, 05:11:01

Forget the Oil. What happens to the Mexican Economy when Americans run out of money to Buy Drugs? If we can't afford FOOD, how the heck do you have enough money to buy DRUGS? I mean, maybe you buy them for a few weeks while you starve to death, but then Demand Destruction takes hold and nobody is left standing buying the drugs anymore. Where do the Mexican Drug Lords get the money to finance their operations?

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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 10 Aug 2008, 11:08:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'F')orget the Oil. What happens to the Mexican Economy when Americans run out of money to Buy Drugs? If we can't afford FOOD, how the heck do you have enough money to buy DRUGS? I mean, maybe you buy them for a few weeks while you starve to death, but then Demand Destruction takes hold and nobody is left standing buying the drugs anymore. Where do the Mexican Drug Lords get the money to finance their operations?

Reverse Engineer


You should see how resourceful the junkies in my neighborhood are. They wouldn't do it to eat, but they will go out in the middle of the night and strip anything that they can sell to the recyclers when it means they can get high.
When it comes down to it, the people will always shout, "Free Barabbas." They love Barabbas. He's one of them. He has the same dreams. He does what they wish they could do. That other guy is more removed, more inscrutable. He makes them think. "Crucify him."
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby Fiddlerdave » Sun 10 Aug 2008, 15:42:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cynus', 'M')exican drug cartels now doing business on US soil
MEXICO CITY - Powerful Mexican cartels have assumed control of drug distribution networks throughout the United States, sparking worry from US law enforcement and analysts that they may export the same violent methods that have ravaged Mexico for years.
US federal officials say the Mexican cartels operate in dozens of US cities, and analysts say they are moving to consolidate their control of the entire supply chain of illegal drugs.
Thus depriving US law enforcement of their fair share of the drug profits, a matter of grave concern.

Mexico may be collapsing, but the Peso continues its slow rise against the USD over the last year and a half. 10.16 pesos to the Dollar now.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U').S. dollar keeps losing value vs. peso
Prices on lettuce, cell phones may go up
The Associated Press


PHOENIX — The plunging U.S. dollar could keep some Arizonans and other Americans from making vacation plans to Mexico.
The dollar has lost a tenth of its value against the Mexican peso since January, meaning that beach trips to Acapulco, Puerto Vallarta and other sunny points south of the border are quickly becoming more expensive.
On Monday, after months of steady decline, the dollar hit a six-year low of 9.67 pesos.
Experts say the dollar's continuing weakness could have an effect on tourism, migrants and the $347 billion in trade between the two countries.
An American retiree renting a house in Mexico for 10,000 pesos a month is paying $98 more a month than in January.
A 1,000-peso-a-night hotel room that would have cost a tourist $91.45 then now costs $101.21. And that's not counting Mexico's inflation rate of nearly 5 percent, which also has helped raise prices.
Partly because of the exchange rate, Mexico City is now nearly as expensive for foreigners as Washington, D.C., according to a study released by Mercer LLC, a U.S. consulting firm.
American shoppers also could eventually feel the sting of the higher peso, said Ral Feliz, a professor at Mexico City's Center for Economic Research and Education.
The United States imports $210 billion in goods annually from Mexico, from lettuce to mobile phones. A stronger peso makes those goods more expensive.
The rising peso also could threaten assembly plants that export to the United States, said Jorge Pedroza Serrano, president of the Maquiladora Association in the border state of Chihuahua.
The dollar's slump also means migrants in the United States can send less money home to their families. The average wire transfer of $350 yielded 369 pesos less than it would have in January, enough to buy 9 gallons of milk or 30 pounds of chicken.
Overall, remittances from Mexican migrants totaled $11.6 billion through June, down 2 percent from last year, the Bank of Mexico said.
The weakening dollar does have an upside for American exporters because it makes U.S. goods cheaper for Mexicans. It also means Mexicans' pesos go further in American shopping malls along the border.
However, stores in Nogales, El Paso and other border communities said they aren't benefiting because stepped-up border security has made it inconvenient for shoppers to come to the U.S.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 10 Aug 2008, 16:34:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'F')orget the Oil. What happens to the Mexican Economy when Americans run out of money to Buy Drugs? If we can't afford FOOD, how the heck do you have enough money to buy DRUGS? I mean, maybe you buy them for a few weeks while you starve to death, but then Demand Destruction takes hold and nobody is left standing buying the drugs anymore. Where do the Mexican Drug Lords get the money to finance their operations?

Reverse Engineer


You should see how resourceful the junkies in my neighborhood are. They wouldn't do it to eat, but they will go out in the middle of the night and strip anything that they can sell to the recyclers when it means they can get high.


This worked in the good old days when Hub Caps had some Value. However, nowadays the cars they attach to don't have value. LOL. Used Car Dealers can't GIVE the cars away these days, they end up costing money sitting on the lot, which really is a Junkyard.

What can the Junkies STEAL that has value other than Food? I do not think people will be leaving their food out on the street to steal, even if they have any to steal. Somebody in the economy somewhere has to be producing enough for there to be value in other things people will buy other than food, and particularly in poor communities nobody has enough money to buy anything other than food anymore, and they are quickly running out of money to do that.

Once the Junkies exit their own neighborhoods trying to steal food to sell to starving people in their own neighborhoods to buy drugs they will have a big problem, since they will need Gas to drive to other neighborhoods, except all the Gas stations in their neighborhood will be closed. So they will have to exit on foot and then try to carry back bags of food they stole. They will be very easy targets.

Possibly the Drug Lords will find a new and bigger market in Stockbrokers liquidating their assets for pennies on the dollar and buying vast amounts of drugs to make the end game more bearable? LOL.

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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby wellbehaved » Mon 11 Aug 2008, 23:31:43

I shouldn´t even respond to the garbage posted on this thread, but it is apparent that most of the people that write on this post know nothing about Mexico, the economics, the culture, politics, etc.

What happened to intelligent discussion? Apparently it doesn´t happen here..
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby TheDude » Tue 12 Aug 2008, 02:09:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wellbehaved', 'I') shouldn´t even respond to the garbage posted on this thread, but it is apparent that most of the people that write on this post know nothing about Mexico, the economics, the culture, politics, etc.

What happened to intelligent discussion? Apparently it doesn´t happen here..


Feel free to chime in with your take. What condition do you expect the country to be after declines in remittances from immigrants, oil export sales, and profits from tourism or drugs?
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Wed 13 Aug 2008, 01:52:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ernando Marti was abducted in June. His decomposed body was found in the boot of a car in Mexico City this month, even though his family had reportedly paid a ransom.

The murder of the teenager, who belonged to a wealthy family that co-owns Mexico's largest chain of sports stores, was shocking enough in itself.

But the impact of his death was compounded by the news that a number of police officers, including a police commander, have been arrested in connection with the case.

Television, radio, newspapers and the internet have been filled with people's reactions to Fernando's killing. The emotions expressed recall four years ago when Mexico saw huge marches amid a similar sense of insecurity provoked by rising crime.

A new demonstration is already planned for later this month, with tens of thousands expected to attend.

'Repugnant excuses'

Jose Antonio Ortega, president of the Ya Basta (Enough is Enough) organisation, spoke for many when he said: "Yet again, [we see] police officers implicated in abductions and other atrocious crimes, repugnant excuses and lies from ministry officials and prosecutors, and the fake consternation and empty promises of governors and politicians."


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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby TheDude » Wed 27 Aug 2008, 18:52:26

Peak oil and Mexico: The socioeconomic impacts of Cantarell’s decline

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')educed oil exports from Mexico will have far reaching implications. At the global level, an increasingly inelastic production chain will be drawn that much tighter. For the United States, a stable source of supply will be eroded to the detriment of both reliability and energy security.

As important as these consequences are, however, they pale in significance compared to the impact reduced oil production will have on the people of Mexico – a nation which has literally changed its socioeconomic profile with billions in revenues from oil exports. Record revenues pay for schools, roads, hospitals, and other important societal infrastructure.
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