[NoWorries]

I posted about two months ago that Economic Crisis -- not Peak Oil crisis -- would steer events in the short and medium term. I am more convinced of that now than ever.

Of course, the dangers of predicting the future are evident on this board. But let it suffice to re-iterate my view that this will be a long decline, not a sudden cataclysmic event. The US economy is incredibly resilient. It has absorbed a lot of punishment, but keeps on ticking.

I think the economy will continue listing along as it currently is doing, like a big ship that has taken on water, but stills floats and makes marginal headway. A protracted recession, not a Depression, awaits. Stagnation is the operative word here. It will happen by degrees over a period of years -- not in one day or one week or month.

Then one day, about 2015 or 2020 or so, people in the west will look up and realize the USA is not a superpower anymore. China and Russia will rule the roost in the Middle East, and geopolitical tension will increase.

To parse a phrase from Yeats: "This is how the world will end--Not with a bang, but a whimper."

As for oil prices -- Who knows.

[CarlosFerreira]

I'm not absolutely sure I agree with you.

The Western economy has been based on many things, and one of them is a certain amount of bread, butter and carrots for the masses. If you hit stagflation - price increases, no growth, more and more unemployment - a growing percentage of people will be thrown out of the system. People denied of all the toys they're used to have. That may bring about a discontinuity things - a change of government. What that means, I can't tell, but I am betting in more local power and dwindling central control, as Govt. loses some capacity to maintain status quo.

There will be differences, of course. The US government probably has more money, men and guns in the army to stop a revolution than the Europe governments.