[dohboi]

jt wrote "However I think it will be more gradual slow down rather than a big drop." I hope so, but I fear the gradual part was the last eight years with exponential price growth; we now seem to be entering the inevitable period of hyperbolic growth. This is roughly the difference between rolling down an ever-steepening hill and jumping off a cliff.

Good idea to get into gardening, by the way.

[joeltrout]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', '
')
By the way, saying demand destruction will postpone collapse, is really saying, "Someone else's collapse will postpone my collapse." Let's try to speak more honestly about these brutal realities.

[dohboi]

No big deal. It is the common parlance of self delusion that we all use. I didn't mean to pick on you particularly. I guess I'm getting grouchy. Better take a walk in the beautiful spring weather we're having.

Cheers,

Dohboi

[KillTheHumans]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', 'T')hink about all the things that could easily be stopped and add a lot of fuel to our markets.


Summer Boating: Thousands of boats pack the oceans, rivers, and lakes for "leisure" boating.

[shortonoil]

pup55 said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o that means that if there was a 4.5% decrease in miles, and a 3.5% decrease in fuel, the fleet became less efficient during that period.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]pup55 said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o that means that if there was a 4.5% decrease in miles, and a 3.5% decrease in fuel, the fleet became less efficient during that period.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'F')or every example of demand destruction, I'm afraid there is a much more powerful feedback pushing the other direction:

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', '.')..
Not with a bunch of dizzy economists constantly clamoring that the government needn't ever do anything because the magic of the market will fix all perfectly every time.
...

[Blacksmith]

We just put on 10,000 km on the RAV4 driving through the central part of the US from Minot ND to Galviston and back. Great trip, avoided cities and enjoyed the 3.60 USD gas rather than the 4.88 US we have here. Prices are cheaper and the motels are reasonable. Next holiday will be in the US possibly the west coast.

[shortonoil]

DantesPeak said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')owever I don't see much happening in those two areas, so I am fairly sure we will see a very steep fall in economic activity before long - since industrial production is very closely coorelated to energy use.

[dunewalker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', 'A')m I the only one here that truly believes demand destruction will postpone peak oil a little while longer.

joeltrout

[SchroedingersCat]

This is not about less energy in the fuel due to ethanol. This is not about MPG. This is fewer miles driven. Not about boats, either. This is one of the more frightening things I've seen lately.

Vehicle miles driven and the GDP are very tightly coupled in the US. If people are indeed driving less, that means that the economy is taking it in the shorts.

I honestly wasn't expecting to see this for another year or two. The roller coaster cars have reached the top of the first hill and are about to plunge down the other side.

[yesplease]

Keep in mind, a drop in GDP, especially via minimizing wasteful activities with many externalities, isn't a bad thing on the whole. GDP does not discriminate between "good" and "bad" economic activity, it simply measures all of it that it can. We could burn down every structure in the US, rebuild them all in a year, and GDP would be through the roof, with absolutely nothing being accomplished. Inefficient energy use is along the same lines, except not completely detrimental or beneficial, but certainly something that could be improved. We drive inefficient vehicles, which results in more income spent on fuel and maintenance, as well as the externalities of said use, such as our military in the ME and gubberment pissing away trillions over the current administration's term, as well as health costs from accidents and pollution, not to mention whatever share of what climate change will end up costing.

In fact, I would go so far as to say that GDP alone is a poor indicator of activity that is specifically beneficial. For instance, the US is second in the world in terms of GDP, but twelfth in terms of HDI. Canada otoh is thirteenth in terms of GDP, but fourth in terms of HDI. What's good for the economy isn't always good for the consumer...

P.S. Run hamsters run!

[emersonbiggins]

That proverbial silver lining...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')AP IMPACT: Traffic deaths fall as gas prices climb

By MARK WILLIAMS – 20 hours ago

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Rising prices at the gas pump appear to be having at least one positive effect: Traffic deaths around the country are plummeting, just as they did during the Arab oil embargo three decades ago.

Researchers with the National Safety Council report a 9 percent drop in motor vehicle deaths overall through May compared with the first five months of 2007, including a drop of 18 percent in March and 14 percent in April.

Preliminary figures obtained by The Associated Press show that some states have reported declines of 20 percent or more. Thirty-one states have seen declines of at least 10 percent, and eight states have reported an increase, according to the council.

No one can say definitively why road fatalities are falling, but it is happening as Americans cut back sharply on driving because of record-high gas prices.

Fewer people on the road means fewer fatalities, said Gus Williams, 52, of Albany, Ga., who frequently drives to northern Ohio. "That shows a good thing coming out of this crisis." He has also noticed that many motorists are going slower.
...

[Bas]

ah, the first proof that peakoil will not result in a die-off but instead will cause a massive live-on!



; )

[Starvid]

So people who want lower gas prices are anti-life? Or if that sounds too negative to you: pro-death.

[Tyler_JC]

In 2002, car accidents were the 8th leading cause of death in the United States.

Moreover, for every age between 3 and 33, car accidents were THE leading cause of death.

Car crashes kill young, healthy people.

I regard the drop in highway fatalities as good news but I'm sure the doomers disagree.

[yesplease]

Here's more.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')There are a whole bunch of factors that are influenced by higher gasoline prices — teenagers don't have as much money, so you have the most risky drivers driving less; people are switching out of the bigger, older more dangerous vehicles, and people also know if they drive slower they're going to save gasoline," Ditlow said. "So, from a societal viewpoint, higher gasoline prices have a great number of benefits, and one of the most important benefits is fewer traffic fatalities."

[yesplease]

There tend to be quite a few silver linings in terms of congestion, noise, accidents, pollution, a reduction in GHG emissions, that end up offsetting the impact of driving reductions on the economy. At ~$300-1,700 billion/year in externalized costs, reductions in driving may turn out to be positive since consumers can spend their income in other aspects of the economy and externalized costs drop. The biggest pain comes from when consumers can't or won't change to reflect the increase in price.

[IslandCrow]

Thanks for the info EB. 9% reduction is a huge number!

This answers the short term part of a question that is going through my mind, but not the long term:

BAckground: In less developed countries there is crowding on ill repaired cars/trucks/boats etc, which often lead to large casualty figures. Also I read somewhere that every year in the States 3 times more people die in road accidents than died in 911.

The question is "will the reduction of deaths caused by people driving less/slower be nullified by more fatalities due to overcrowding of vehicles and to the vehicles being in poorer condition than now?"