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Biggest commodities bust in 52 years

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Biggest commodities bust in 52 years

Unread postby mmasters » Wed 26 Mar 2008, 19:49:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he U.S. never had a budget surplus during the Clinton years. The General Budget was made to look good by taking 100's of millions of $ from Social Security and Medicare. Here are the OFFICIAL government numbers on the first Monday of each fiscal year
.

Is this the federal budget or total federal and state? Tjis is the kind of thing I am familier with.

source:http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/09/27/clinton.surplus/

Your article wont say it but he never really balanced the total federal budget, he balanced the total federal "operational" budget.
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Re: Biggest commodities bust in 52 years

Unread postby mmasters » Wed 26 Mar 2008, 19:51:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'T')he title of this thread should be changed to “Biggest Commodity Fake-out in 52 Years”.

The Fed and ECB are flooding the world with new money (despite what the ECB says about interest rates). The Fed lent money at only 0.25% today – that’s only one quarter of one per cent.

In these circumstances where the US dollar is losing more of its intrinsic value every day, widespread deflation is not possible.

Not possible unless there's a disaster and they stop floating the markets!
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Re: Biggest commodities bust in 52 years

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 28 Mar 2008, 12:16:07

mmasters said:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Not possible unless there's a disaster and they stop floating the markets!


Does mass starvation count as a disaster?

Rise in rice prices - 30%

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he increase came after Egypt, a leading exporter, imposed a formal ban on selling rice abroad to keep local prices down, and the Philippines announced plans for a major purchase of the grain in the international market to boost supplies. Global rice stocks are at their lowest since 1976.

The Egyptian export ban formalises a previously poorly enforced curb and follows similar restrictions imposed by Vietnam and India, the world’s second- and third-largest exporters. Cambodia, a small seller, also on Thursday announced an export ban.


How long before this happens to oil?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ANILA, Philippines — Philippine activists warn about possible riots. Aid agencies across Asia worry how they will feed the hungry. Governments dig deeper every day to fund subsidies.

Part of a surge in global food costs, rice prices on world markets have jumped 50 percent in the past two months and at least doubled since 2004. Experts blame rising fuel and fertilizer expenses as well as crops curtailed by disease, pests and climate change. There are concerns prices could rise a further 40 percent in coming months.


Hoarding has begun throughout Asia! PO hits our bellies!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')sia faces a sharp rise in food costs, due partly to surging demand for crops used in biofuels, and governments should do more to shield the region's poor from economic shocks, a U.N. commission said Thursday. In China, food costs in February were up 23.3 percent from the same month last year, driven by a 63.4 percent jump in the price of pork and a 46 percent rise for vegetables.


When food prices rise 70 - 80% in Western countries, we will have that disaster!
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Re: Biggest commodities bust in 52 years

Unread postby DantesPeak » Fri 28 Mar 2008, 13:19:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '
')When food prices rise 70 - 80% in Western countries, we will have that disaster!


A disaster is developing on many fronts. But these disasters are not coming with deflation, but with hyperinflation - at least for now.

Countries around the world will take the easy way out, deficit spending which frequently is financed with fiat money. Economic systems around the world can not cope with supply/demand imbalances we are now starting to see.
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Re: Biggest commodities bust in 52 years

Unread postby Iaato » Fri 28 Mar 2008, 13:40:16

Odd Crop Prices Defy Economics-NYT

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')But, in effect, exactly that has been happening, repeatedly and mysteriously, in trading that sets prices for corn, soybeans and wheat — three of America’s biggest crops and, lately, popular targets for investors pouring into the volatile commodities market. Economists who have been studying this phenomenon say they are at a loss to explain it.

Whatever the reason, the price for a bushel of grain set in the derivatives markets has been substantially higher than the simultaneous price in the cash market."


What a bunch of retards. The same thing that is happening in the metals market, you idjits. Pretend paper goes to the moon as you inflate it. Gee; just can't figure it out. That's because your science sucks. /rant off.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')These disparities also raise the question of whether American farmers, who rely almost exclusively on the cash market, are being shortchanged by cash prices that are lower than they should be.

“We do not have a clear understanding of what is driving these episodic instances,” said Prof. Scott H. Irwin, one of three agricultural economists at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign who have done extensive research on these price distortions....

“The market sends a sell signal, but they don’t sell,” said Kendell W. Keith, president of the National Grain and Feed Association. “So the markets are not behaving the way they otherwise would — and the pricing formula for the industry is a lot fuzzier and a lot less efficient than we’ve ever seen.”"


/rant on This is just too funny. Where do they get these jokers? Here's what happens when you miss the big picture. But there's an important message here for us, because as long as we are inflating through the credit derivative market, the real markets are not going to get good cues and it will just exacerbate market failures. We are so screwed.

Economists are idiots.
“Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value ---- zero.” --Voltaire
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Re: Biggest commodities bust in 52 years

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 28 Mar 2008, 14:15:13

DantesPeak said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') disaster is developing on many fronts. But these disasters are not coming with deflation, but with hyperinflation - at least for now.

Countries around the world will take the easy way out, deficit spending which frequently is financed with fiat money. Economic systems around the world can not cope with supply/demand imbalances we are now starting to see.



We are certainly seeing a staggering level of inflation in energy related industries, but on the other side of the coin we are seeing massive deflation. World equity markets are reported to have lost $8.7 trillion in the last 90 days. US housing has lost value of up to $4.6 trillion in the last year and a half (23% of 20 trillion).

There is presently a fire sale going on for everything from VCRs to used cars. I think that PO is going to reformulate our concept about economics, and many strange things will happen and are happening. I’m not sure that the old rules hold anymore!
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Re: Biggest commodities bust in 52 years

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Wed 07 May 2008, 18:34:20

I'm dredging up this thread for laughs at this point. :-D

The index in question triggering headlines heralding the "biggest commodities bust in 52 years":

14-21 March 2008, Reuters-Jefferies CRB index
Image

14 March - 7 May 2008, same index:
Image

Some bust! :roll:

Reuters-Jefferies CRB (commodity) index
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Re: Biggest commodities bust in 52 years

Unread postby newman1979 » Wed 07 May 2008, 19:10:33

". World equity markets are reported to have lost $8.7 trillion in the last 90 days. US housing has lost value of up to $4.6 trillion in the last year and a half (23% of 20 trillion). "Shortonoil wrote
The problem is that for years the central banks have declared that assets are not inflation and therefore can't be deflation either.
If it is not inflation when housing gains 30 trillion, how can it be deflation when it loses 4.6 trillion?
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Re: Biggest commodities bust in 52 years

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Mon 21 Jul 2008, 15:55:35

We have another "biggest bust in 52 years," according to the Reuters-Jefferies index. No articles, though; I guess the media have picked up and moved on.

Image

Nevermind that the "low" right now still exceeds the all-time high set back in March.

RJ
"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."

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Re: Biggest commodities bust in 52 years

Unread postby Novus » Mon 21 Jul 2008, 16:21:23

What some people call a bust I call buying opportunity. For those buying on the lows in march could easily had a 40% return on there on money in just 3 months. We are now a similar point. Biggest buying opportunity in 52 years beckons.
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Re: Biggest commodities bust in 52 years

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Mon 21 Jul 2008, 16:35:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'W')hat some people call a bust I call buying opportunity. For those buying on the lows in march could easily had a 40% return on there on money in just 3 months. We are now a similar point. Biggest buying opportunity in 52 years beckons.


True. The window might be short-lived, though - oil is back above $131. Other commodities will be sure to follow.
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Re: Biggest commodities bust in 52 years

Unread postby cube » Tue 22 Jul 2008, 02:07:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'W')hat some people call a bust I call buying opportunity. For those buying on the lows in march could easily had a 40% return on there on money in just 3 months. We are now a similar point. Biggest buying opportunity in 52 years beckons.


True. The window might be short-lived, though - oil is back above $131. Other commodities will be sure to follow.
I'm hesitant to call the shots with oil because it's just too crazy even for me.
But I think corn has found a new level of support.
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Re: Biggest commodities bust in 52 years

Unread postby rdsaltpower » Tue 22 Jul 2008, 11:28:22

Crude at 126.00 today
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Re: Biggest commodities bust in 52 years

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Tue 22 Jul 2008, 11:33:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rdsaltpower', 'C')rude at 126.00 today


Yep, SPG is probably right - next stop, 200 dma.
"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."

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Re: Biggest commodities bust in 52 years

Unread postby hironegro » Fri 25 Jul 2008, 17:19:35

So what happens if oil goes below $100? I just want to know what your rationalization will be then?
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Re: Biggest commodities bust in 52 years

Unread postby Twilight » Fri 25 Jul 2008, 17:32:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hironegro', 'S')o what happens if oil goes below $100? I just want to know what your rationalization will be then?

I would be asking myself how I could be so right.

Which would be ironic, because my call was so early and low, it was wrong. Second time lucky, maybe, now that the momentum has gone.
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Re: Biggest commodities bust in 52 years

Unread postby dogismyth » Thu 21 Aug 2008, 00:40:04

Hmmmm... the Tickerforum. Well I'll tell you one thing, I would certainly perform my DD before accepting anything from Denninger.

Denninger is operating for himself, the exact thing he claims he is against at Wall Street and the fed. There is very little opportunity to present your view on the TF without getting smashed and threatened to be banned from the site. Free speech is not a right at his site.

He runs a site by asking for contributions, which are required, if you want access to the more "important" forums. And after your contribution, he can ban you at any moment, and all TFers will attest to the fact that he is belligerent on this point. Talk about a lack of accountability and personal responsibility.

He also commands that you adopt his political ideas and his methodology for implementing change. He has many loyal servants among the regular 300 members or so.

A subscription service requires mutual trust and responsibility from both engaged parties. You, obviously, do not get that TF. Why? Because Denninger wants everything his way, is a control freak, and people are stupid enough to contribute to later be berated.

The Tickerforum is laden with racism, primarily on blacks. The owner, Denninger, lets it run on and on, and never says a word. Its a disgrace and completes the picture for the TF that it is unprofessional and run in a very neoconistic way.

As far as PMs, Denninger has his position and anyone challenging that position....IS BANNED, if they don't discontinue their opinion or technical analysis.

I don't like the way Denninger is reaching noteriety, on the backs of others, while remaining closed minded, a racist and telltale signs of hypocrisy.

Of course, this is all my opinion. See for yourself.

Its a dangerous cult, and I would recommend sticking to more conventional source of information like the wall street examiner.com, as an example.

The most respected member of TF was NoThing, and of course, she was banned by Denninger because she saw through his game, and was much smarter on the issues.
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Re: Biggest commodities bust in 52 years

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 21 Aug 2008, 01:11:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'W')e have another "biggest bust in 52 years," according to the Reuters-Jefferies index. No articles, though; I guess the media have picked up and moved on.

Image

Nevermind that the "low" right now still exceeds the all-time high set back in March.

RJ

Image
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Biggest commodities bust in 52 years

Unread postby TheDude » Thu 21 Aug 2008, 06:39:44

Image

Stand your point, Sir. Consult with your second. I demand satisfaction.
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
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Re: Biggest commodities bust in 52 years

Unread postby yesplease » Thu 21 Aug 2008, 10:51:38

Dudeeee, your graph is missing a bit of data, about 60pts worth if I'm reading it correctly. ;)

If the dollar rebounds to the historical norm, which it may with a change in fiscal policy, the index would be well under 300. That being said there is no guarantee whoever is elected would/could turn around the government, so YMMV.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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