[Homesteader]

Up in Maine I happened to have dinner with the editor of Yankee Magazine. I kind of annoyed him when the talk turned to politics. In an off the cuff manner I allowed that in my part of Maine if someone couldn't make it in business they went into real estate and if they couldn't cut it there they went into politics not knowing he was in the process of running for some elected position or another in New Hampshire (I think it was NH anyway)

The guy was a pompous jerk so it didn't bother me that much.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'P')rogressives call Pelosi "A Total Failure."

[Plantagenet]

Now Nancy is starting to call the other children names.

Children.....and especially you, Nancy.... stop squabbling and play nice.

[Ache]

So isn't what she is saying total true ?

[cowuvula]

Good for her.

Brave , isn't she?

[Peleg]

Now now. Did you hear her say she wants to use the Strategic Reserve to short the oil market? If they were going to glut us with that 700 million barrels is would last only a little over a month for full release, but what if we dropped 2 million barrels per day domestically for say 100 days. Just the signing of the bill alone would push oil prices down. We could produce a nice overcorrection below $100 what with SPR and fears of demand destruction. Once the price came down though we would have to be able to lock in contracts to replace it. As long as our leverage in the marketplace as the biggest consumer allows that for another three years it might be a way to do just what she said, help subsidize Boone's plan. Of course the idea is attractive but we would not expect it to work just as we expect. That would be an amazing result would'nt it. The Dow would easily find it's way back to 12,500 within a month or two.

Now my concerns are that the situation we are facing might be severely more advanced than the Democrats are telling themselves in which case it might not matter anyways, we could spend that SPR and find that oil did not go down in price because depletion simply took back what supply growth had given. Oil giveth and oil taketh away.

... ... ...

I am also wanting to understand better the details of this 68 million acres under lease that they say the majors are not using. My understanding at a base level would be that the market would have driven those companies to explore if it was expected to be fruitful. However, if we think of it from a game theory perspective at the moment I relize that peak is coming, what better way to give myself an upper hand than to sceretly lock in as large of an amount of oil as possible. You see this mad rush to import oil is only stupid if it is blind consumption. If it is a policy to use others oil first and then when depletion has progressed to the destruction of the global trade rejoice with your citizen's that you have 200 years worth of oil at half the price of the old global spot price. That would seem to be assuming far too much philanthropic intent. But just the same countries that produce have to at some point build larger and larger strategic reserves to blunt the collapse of the global market as depletion drives up price and eventually cuts off demand for international trade (because transportation costs would make local good cheaper.) That could still be thirty years off but somebody up there must be smart enough to understand that some things have to be planned for well in advance.

[Peleg]

Here are some excerpts from a letter I sent to Nancy Pelosi. I know I am leaving my self open for criticism here but it is par for the course as we try to work out the issue faced by our blessed nation. I think everyone here who can write should be sending endless letters to their representatives now. We need peak oil to get out of the media and onto the policy agenda as soon as possible. With high prices hurting us all now is the time. Washington wants to listen and respond, so get the information our there, get the hive mind that is Washington buzzing from every neuron.

Dear Madame Speaker,

I was impressed with the strong comments you made on Blitzer about the President. The idea of using the SPR to short the oil market is gutsy. It does also seem though from an independent perspective that the sublties of why oil companies are not drilling on their leases are being missed. Or rather that only one possibility is being put forward in the demotractic stand, the one that suggests someone is lying or scheming. I had written to Senator Feingold along these same lines when I heard him bring up the subject during commitee.

The oil companies have to justify the costs of development even to themselves, and I have heard serious talk that they do not drill because they do not believe anything will be found. If there is any truth in that then it would be wrong to use that as a political weapon by claiming that we are sitting on oil that is ready to pump. What the oil majors are probably looking for is that a relatively large find that allows easy implementation of existing methods and ensures a marginal profit for some time.

My purpose in writing is to ask that someone look carefully into the geologic truths underlying these supposed shut in reserves on the 68 million leased acres. And also to advocate for a compromise that gives little under the premise that some large finds may exist offshore and that given expectations of continued high prices it is logical to at least look. Let the majors give a list of their priority leases,we can still say no absolutely to ANWR and pay proper respect to moderation. I think we have to snap out of the ever deeper spiral of assuming someone is lying to affect the election or whatever... Energy is the issue of the 21st century for America. Without a healthy and secure economy little social progress is likely to be made since it requires funding and prosperity generally.

Another major factoid that should be dealt with is the need for validation of reserves from producing nations to try to reduce the risk premium in the market. We may find out that in fact Saudi Arabia has half the reserves we thought, which would be good to know since they are the lynchpin of world supply. Over all I still do not hear from anyone but the Republican insiders and a few former Democrats that the insanity of 'peak oil' is understood to be a real and pressing issue for this first quarter of the 21st century. The American people are big enough to hear the truth. The rejected President Carter 30 years ago, but this is not 30 years ago. So far I have been impressed with Senator Obama's proposed energy policy as measured but also knowledgable of the issue. I appreciate the plan put forward by Boone Picken's although I doubt that making it possible for American's to drive more will inspire them to drive less. Certainly wind power technology is of age and should be rolled out as fast as possible in the wind belt.

The 2 trillion dollar question has to be, what is the most likely future for oil production and how to we get American's to understand and accept that. How do we incrementally and with appropriate haste make use of all available responsible alternatives? Credit where credit is due. In retrospect I despise the way in which the neocons attempted to change the world, but their pragmatism in seeking their own gain is not completely lost on me when it comes to energy. America must think about it's energy future and we must get to work at a scale that we have rarely mustered.

Regards,

[Peleg]

[typos left in to give it that organic and provincial feel (wink)]

[Armageddon]

Pelosi also said Bush had erectile disfunction. Total failure for sure. Either ED or whiskey dick.

[jbrovont]

P.S. Also, uphold the laws of the United States governing high treason, and U.N. laws governing crimes against humanity and war crimes. Thanks for your representation.

[Plantagenet]

PPS: When are you going to keep your campaign promise and stop voting to send hundreds of billions of dollars to keep the Iraq war going?

[Peleg]

We have to start somewhere you guys.

[jbrovont]

Indeed! I wasn't knocking you at all - I think it's commendable that you take a personal responsibility in confronting her with these issues. I only meant to inject some satire on the topic of her track record, of which I am (obviously) displeased.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peleg', 'W')e have to start somewhere you guys.

[syrac818]

I really appreciate you writing this. Thank you.

I have written myself, although not as eloquently. Watching the manner is which these politicians are politicizing the oil crisis is infuriation, and frightening.

[seldom_seen]

It's a big club, and you ain't in it. You and I are not in the big club.

~George Carlin

[Peleg]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', '[')i]It's a big club, and you ain't in it. You and I are not in the big club.

~George Carlin

[hironegro]

people who use the world liberal for populists and keynesians are total failures.

[Maddog78]

What if one of the unintended consequences of releasing the SPR would be to drop the price causing oil cos. to drop their exploration budgets accordingly, just makeing things that much worse in the long run?

[darwinsdog]

Yes, of course what she said is true: Bush is a total failure.

But how successful has Nancy been at ending the US occupation & oppression of Iraq, as she promised to do?

If you ask me, the entire US government is a total failure.

[burtonridr]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('darwinsdog', 'Y')es, of course what she said is true: Bush is a total failure.

But how successful has Nancy been at ending the US occupation & oppression of Iraq, as she promised to do?

If you ask me, the entire US government is a total failure.

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('darwinsdog', '
')
If you ask me, the entire US government is a total failure.