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PeakOil is You

Please prove me wrong!

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Re: Please prove me wrong!

Postby Homesteader » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 22:35:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyDigger', 'w')rong, do your research - we are actually increasing output - what you mean to say is supply demand differentials are extending at a faster rate than increased output....


Would it be to much to ask for a link showing the production increase?
"The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…"
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Re: Please prove me wrong!

Postby dunewalker » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 22:42:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyDigger', 'w')rong, do your research - we are actually increasing output - what you mean to say is supply demand differentials are extending at a faster rate than increased output....


Would it be to much to ask for a link showing the production increase?


Please show us a link that shows just the stuff that gets pumped out of holes in the ground, without the "all-liquids" mumbo jumbo, as that is double counting (considering that it takes a barrel of oil to produce a barrel of ethanol, and all -liquids graphs show both of those barrels). In other words,show us the C&C graph: crude + condensates.
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Re: Please prove me wrong!

Postby smallpoxgirl » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 22:42:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyDigger', 'w')rong, do your research - we are actually increasing output


Really? That's not what EIA says.

World Oil Production
2005: 84,631 kbpd
2006: 84,597 kbpd
2007: 84,601 kbpd
source

Don't look like an increase to me.
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Re: Please prove me wrong!

Postby mercurygirl » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 23:10:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'M')y kids are 7, 4 and 9 months old.

I have talked to the 9 month old about it a little. I can't tell how much of it he understands, though.

The other two are busy being kids. I'm just going to let that process unfold for now. Neither of them seem close to having kids of their own at this point.

At some point, I will begin paramilitary training programs for all three. Part of that training will probably include some classroom time with Catton's overshoot and die-off analysis.


Thanks, Tex. Good points. Kids just live, they don't freak out about anything. They're great examples.

At one time, I was sobbing over the mess my little one will be in, but I figured she doesn't understand and it can't be good for her to see Mom fall apart. She'll do just fine. We should all follow their lead.
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Re: Please prove me wrong!

Postby EnergyDigger » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 23:53:43

EIA are weak numbers - what I am seeing is actual output increase in the largest fields - the wells in the largest fields are being increased in exponential fashion - sorry, I cannot provide my data to you as it is confidential - I will try to find some better publishable data for you in a couple of weeks - i am presently very busy drilling a well in Wyoming right now - one thing i am doing in my spare time is trying to generate a good graph of oil/gas production with rig counts - look at the page on energydigger.com and click on the link to rig counts at the right hand side of the page to see the beginnings of the data build on this project....

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Re: Please prove me wrong!

Postby MadScientist » Thu 17 Jul 2008, 18:57:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '
')Too many people, not enough earth.


I may have asked you this question before, but have you talked to your kids about what they plan to do in the future regarding having kids of their own, assuming they make it?

Do you feel that TS will HTF severely enough that such a talk may not even be necessary?


My kids are 7, 4 and 9 months old.

I have talked to the 9 month old about it a little. I can't tell how much of it he understands, though.

The other two are busy being kids. I'm just going to let that process unfold for now. Neither of them seem close to having kids of their own at this point.

At some point, I will begin paramilitary training programs for all three. Part of that training will probably include some classroom time with Catton's overshoot and die-off analysis.



7 is plenty old enough to start training. biking, woodscraft, survival mindset. camping is the best. build love and appreciation for plants and nature in general. and most importantly mess with their sense of normalcy. By that I mean get them used to "shock" a little at a time. It will make the difference between an asset and a liability.

You will be amazed what a 7 year old is capable of when you get outside the box. My personal experience has been profound. I have seen an eagerness to "do something real" that i never expected.
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Re: Please prove me wrong!

Postby killJOY » Thu 17 Jul 2008, 19:20:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyDigger', 'E')IA are weak numbers - what I am seeing is actual output increase in the largest fields - the wells in the largest fields are being increased in exponential fashion - sorry, I cannot provide my data to you as it is confidential -


Translation:

"I GAZE DEEPLY AT MY CRYSTAL BALLS"

(dig the new sig, btw. this says it all, friend quinny)
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Peak oil = comet Kohoutek.
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Re: Please prove me wrong!

Postby Quinny » Sun 20 Jul 2008, 17:38:26

well..

no one got near. proof might be a bit difficult, but i can see no argument that we aren't fubar.

ttfn psychology

over to planning & preparation- think i need to concentrate on that as i'm a bit behind the game.
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Re: Please prove me wrong!

Postby EnergyDigger » Sun 20 Jul 2008, 18:00:20

ahhh, well, yes, it is a diresituation, not even beginning to try and paint a different picture - we are in trouble guys - we have picked over the easy fields and frankly we don't have the experience or the rigs anymore to reamp up any harder than we are right now without significant time passing - it takes minimum 10 years to build a base-line drilling engineer - look up a story called "The greying of the oilfield" somewhere, it was a good story and very accurate... i was only addressing hte point that we are actually ramping up energy volumes at some kind of moderate pace, not declining - it is just nowhere near keeping up with the demand levels which are increasing significantly faster - and that is just based on a US outlook - the world outlook is dimmer still... I have a unique perspective within the context of this discussion...

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Re: Please prove me wrong!

Postby Hermes » Mon 21 Jul 2008, 01:09:33

Just scrolling up on this page, looking at ED's postings.

------------------------------------------------------------------

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyDigger', ' ')I can tell you this, we are drilling faster than ever right now - cheer up.


vs.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyDigger', 'a')hhh, well, yes, it is a diresituation, not even beginning to try and paint a different picture -


------------------------------------------------------------------

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyDigger', '
')your absolutely incorrect - we are drilling faster and more efficiently than ever - producing ever larger quantities - the only issue is that it is more expensive -


vs.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyDigger', '
')... i was only addressing hte point that we are actually ramping up energy volumes at some kind of moderate pace, not declining - it is just nowhere near keeping up with the demand levels which are increasing significantly faster -


------------------------------------------------------------------


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyDigger', '
')- what I am seeing is actual output increase in the largest fields - the wells in the largest fields are being increased in exponential fashion -

vs.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyDigger', '
')- we have picked over the easy fields and frankly we don't have the experience or the rigs anymore to reamp up any harder than we are right now without significant time passing -
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Re: Please prove me wrong!

Postby eastbay » Mon 21 Jul 2008, 01:12:46

Yes, well the energy market does constantly move up and down, and oftentimes for no apparent reason.

And likewise occasionally do our expectations, hopes, and dreams. :)
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Re: Please prove me wrong!

Postby EnergyDigger » Mon 21 Jul 2008, 01:30:16

yes, all true statements to be sure - we are drilling faster and more efficiently - creating larger supplies - but it's an uphill battle, the people, equipment and knowledge are lacking to push it further right now - it's a tough deal - i know it's diffcult for you to understand, most people really understand little about our business - we are gaining on production but losing on demand requirements - a simple equation but hard for some people to accept - so cheer up my friend - gasoline is cheap right now - you haven't gotten close to the highs you going to see in the near future... this is a serious problem and it's not going away overnight, or if ever.... sorry - - almost nobody outside our industry understands how incredibly difficult it is to bring you a bbl of oil, it's a fragile system - more fragile than you know... pick statments apart all you want and grind and toil in it if you like but understand one thing, we are working hard to get the numbers up and it's happening - we are just loosing the battle against usage rates. So give us a break - we are working hard...
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Re: Please prove me wrong!

Postby Hermes » Mon 21 Jul 2008, 01:36:13

EnergyDigger:

I wish you the very best of luck on PeakOil.com.
Space Ghost: Oh boy, the Shatner's really hit the fan now. I'm up Dawson's Creek without a paddle.
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Re: Please prove me wrong!

Postby EnergyDigger » Mon 21 Jul 2008, 02:43:37

Thanks - it's been fun to look around the boards and see what people are saying about the industry i work in - I have been drilling wells for 34 years in more than 40 countries and it is my passion, it's interesting to see other people with a passion along the lines of what i do for a living - even more impressive that most are not in the business and are really interested in it just the same...

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Re: Please prove me wrong!

Postby Quinny » Mon 11 Aug 2008, 16:19:43

I've been aware of potential problems with shortages of energy resources for many years, but only recently 'joined the dots' to the economic situation. I always thought that it would be a problem for my kids. Even the non-doomers on this thread have only convinced me more that soon TSWHTF.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyDigger', 'y')es, all true statements to be sure - we are drilling faster and more efficiently - creating larger supplies - but it's an uphill battle, the people, equipment and knowledge are lacking to push it further right now - it's a tough deal - i know it's diffcult for you to understand, most people really understand little about our business - we are gaining on production but losing on demand requirements - a simple equation but hard for some people to accept - so cheer up my friend - gasoline is cheap right now - you haven't gotten close to the highs you going to see in the near future... this is a serious problem and it's not going away overnight, or if ever.... sorry - - almost nobody outside our industry understands how incredibly difficult it is to bring you a bbl of oil, it's a fragile system - more fragile than you know... pick statments apart all you want and grind and toil in it if you like but understand one thing, we are working hard to get the numbers up and it's happening - we are just loosing the battle against usage rates. So give us a break - we are working hard...
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