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Are you at the front lines of Retail?

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Are you at the front lines of Retail?

Unread postby SMA » Tue 15 Jul 2008, 13:26:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'T')hat's wild! We get less sick during hard times.


I don't live in the United States, but I believe health care if fairly expensive there, right? So maybe people aren't less sick but simply more concerned about the costs of an ER visit?

Or is emergency health care provided no matter if you can pay or not?
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Re: Are you at the front lines of Retail?

Unread postby jlw61 » Tue 15 Jul 2008, 13:30:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SMA', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'T')hat's wild! We get less sick during hard times.


I don't live in the United States, but I believe health care if fairly expensive there, right? So maybe people aren't less sick but simply more concerned about the costs of an ER visit?

Or is emergency health care provided no matter if you can pay or not?


The hospitals, by law, can not refuse treatment at the ER. If you were refused for anything other than the ER being closed for new admissions, you (or your surviving relations) would end up owning yourself a nice shiny hospital of your very own.
When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
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Re: Are you at the front lines of Retail?

Unread postby VMarcHart » Tue 15 Jul 2008, 13:34:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jlw61', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'S')ort of on these lines, or second-hand information if you will. I own a BMW and am a member of an internet forum. It circulated this weekend that (BMW) mechanics are seeing less cars these days, basically only for necessary repairs.
Really? BMW people are slacking off? I'd have guessed them to be less likely to slack off unless BMW owners tend to be overextended for apperances sake.
Your last statement is right on the money; most BMW drivers do it to overextend their apperances. And time to confess, I'm not too far off that. However, I'm a gear head, and drive for the fun of it. That's said, I drive very little, less than 200 miles a month. A lot of walking, pedaling, skate-boarding here. Regarding the 1st question, like I said, it was second-hand information. Please take it with a grain of salt.
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Re: Are you at the front lines of Retail?

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 15 Jul 2008, 14:01:54

I'm not in retail. I work in the entertainment industry, mostly working on motion pictures (prop maker). Things have been a little quiet lately after months of solid work. I'm not sure if this is because of the looming actors strike, or because of economic concerns....
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Re: Are you at the front lines of Retail?

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Tue 15 Jul 2008, 14:19:41

My daughter (17) is a hostess at a BBQ family restaurant. She says business is about like usual, good days and slow days. Last weekend was great, her boyfriend (who's 18 and a waiter at the same place) had $500 of sales in three hours last Friday.

I asked her about it and she said, "People will always go out to eat". :lol:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', '&')quot;Taste the sizzling fury of fajita skillet death you marauding zombie goon!"

First thing to ask: Cui bono?
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Re: Are you at the front lines of Retail?

Unread postby hiker75 » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 04:55:16

I actually work for Fedex, and have been reading these forums for a while. It started as a college paper but I have found some of the ideas and thoughts extremely thought provoking.
Anyways I work in the Bay Area of California. Now our situation is two fold due to high energy costs and the collapse of housing. However at Fedex Express (air division) our freight levels are continuing to plummet, both inbound and outbound. The next day air service has dropped incredibly low, while shippers are opting for slower more economical services.
Mortgage companies have either consolidated offices or are closing shop. I can see in the parking lots in malls are not as full as previous. While there was an uptick of electronics shipped when the stimulus checks were sent out, one particular electronics distributor is picked up with one truck.
This is in stork contrast to anything (even 9-11) that we have encountered. This is truly getting scary, at least in california. Oh and to fill those diesel trucks up it is now around 165.00 instead of 60 just two or three years ago.
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Re: Are you at the front lines of Retail?

Unread postby SoylentGreen » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 07:00:04

I know somebody in the boat repo business in Ft lauderdale Fla. Business has almost tripled. People are trying to keep thier Houses and cars is his assessment.
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Re: Are you at the front lines of Retail?

Unread postby MarkJ » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 09:22:44

I'm on the front lines in different industries such as building, pluming, heating, cooling, heating fuels and auto repair.

Residential building and renovation is booming in some areas (suburbs, towns, villages, vacation homes) but spotty in others. (cities, exburbs, distant commuter towns)

Demand for large building lots, acreage, farmland and commercially zoned land is way is way up. I've made more money developing and selling land than building.

Commercial building and/or expansion is booming in most regions. (warehouses, stores, hotels, restaurants, offices, professional buildings, industrial parks)

Our residential heating oil & kerosene sales are down, commercial heating oil sales are up, residential propane sales are up and commercial propane sales are up. The primary reason for declining sales is that customers are switching form higher priced full service companies to cheaper COD oil companies with lower minimum deliveries. A few of our competitors have gone bankrupt, so we end up with many of their customers.

New furnace, boiler and water heater installations are up substantially, but annual heating service is down. I expect emergency service, repairs and installations related to system failure, fuel run-outs, fire, CO, frozen/burst water & boiler piping will increase like the last couple of seasons. A/C installations (retrofits) were up substantially this year, which is surprising since A/C is a luxury and many A/C customers really need insulation, weatherization, new windows, better ventilation and heating system replacement.

The guys that lease my auto service garage said business is up since people are fixing the vehicles they own as opposed to buying new. Their buy-here-pay-here used car business is up substantially as well. Smaller cars, mid sized economical cars and cheaper vehicles are selling well regardless of the miles.

I'm surprised at the labor rates the independent garages are charging as well since their rates are as high as the dealerships.

Since the used car market has been picking up, we're seeing the return of the curbstoners.
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Re: Are you at the front lines of Retail?

Unread postby jlw61 » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 12:03:44

This has been some good info, so far. Please remember to repost any changes as it may show some kind of trend in the future.
When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
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Re: Are you at the front lines of Retail?

Unread postby PonyBoy78 » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 13:58:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jlw61', 'I')f you (or any other ER person on this board) can get a better feel for the numbers, that could be quite interesting if we can find the underlying cause. Such as the tummy ache bit could be less excessive drinking?


Just home from work - our ER admissions have been dropping by single-digit percentages (month-to-month) for much of the last year, which is in stark contrast to the usual reliable single-digit increases we've seen in recent years.

1%, 2%, or 3% might not sound much, but our city's population is growing, and I'd expect our admission rates to roughly match that growth. With no new hospital openings to perhaps explain the drop, I think it's significant.

Still, we have plenty of work to go around. Every month, a sheet of paper is put on the breakroom door where we can sign-up for extra shifts. I'm taking them out to the woodshed on overtime this year. :twisted:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MarkJ', 'D')emand for large building lots, acreage, farmland and commercially zoned land is way is way up. I've made more money developing and selling land than building.


Interesting. I've always wondered if raw acreage prices would go up or down. I can imagine families who own extra land selling-off chunks of it in order to cover their debts..
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