General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
by Ludi » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 08:16:02
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hironegro', '
')
Okay dude that's what many prominent futurist believe, whether that will happen is another question.
It's pretty damn difficult to transition to something which doesn't exist.
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by Plantagenet » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 11:29:37
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '
')I can still offer only one quick fix for PO in the US: a rapid and huge jump in gasoline tax. Like $0.50/gal hike every 4 months for the next 5 years as only the Congress can mandate. OK...let's all hold our breaths and wait for that to happen.
Matt Simmons has suggested a clever way to do this.....Simmons suggested just making the highest reached gas price a "floor" on future prices, i.e. since gas is ca. $4.50 now.....make that the "floor" and put in a tax that keeps it at that level even if the retail price might be lower. When it eventually moves to $5.00 make that the new floor.
Surely the clever boys in DC can come up with a way to write this so it isn't called a new "tax" but a "user fee" or some other euphemism.
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by AlexdeLarge » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 13:08:23
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
A massive die-off comes whether we transition or not or even find more oil.
We are in overshoot. Liebig's Law will just find some other limiting factor to set and limit carrying capacity.
As long as we are the last to die off! LOL
I like eating! So lets drill here, drill there, drill over there, drill anywhere and do it as fast as we get the tools and equipment to do it. Lets build nukes, lets explore wind and solar etc. etc. etc. Lets try to conserve, lets attempt to "powerdown".
Why go extinct without a fight?????
Viddy well, little brother. Viddy well.
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by MonteQuest » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 13:20:57
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', ' ')
<It isn't going to increase net US oil production and reduce imports. >
Please rephrase. I'm sure you have a valid question but I'm missing it. If the entire undrilled OCS produces 10 bopd then that would mean 10 bopd we wouldn't need to import. Also, please define "net US oil production"
Take ANWR: producing that oil (,9mbpd at peak) would reduce imports from 68% to 65%...up from 60% today.
OCS (1 to 2 mbpd) will not reduce imports, it will just slow the rate of growth.
Net oil production? Since 2000, oil companies working in the U.S. have doubled the number of wells drilled per year.
Although increased drilling has added new oil to the nation's supply, it has not done so fast enough to offset the terminal decline of existing fields.
I seriously doubt that OCS will offset existing field decline or the terminal decline of US oil production. Alaskan oil didn't, but for a short window of time and that was 2 mbpd.
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by MonteQuest » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 13:24:51
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlexdeLarge', ' ') As long as we are the last to die off! LOL
I like eating! So lets drill here, drill there, drill over there, drill anywhere and do it as fast as we get the tools and equipment to do it. Lets build nukes, lets explore wind and solar etc. etc. etc. Lets try to conserve, lets attempt to "powerdown".
Why go extinct without a fight?????
Because the fight you suggest is the same fight that got us here.
We need to stop fighting. If you are in a hole, stop digging.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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by yesplease » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 13:50:39
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'N')ot enough to offset decline of existing fields and reduce import growth. Maybe slow the rate of growth of imports.
Do you mean negative import growth? Crude imports are down yoy, and I don't see why we would want to reverse that trend.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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by MonteQuest » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 16:01:22
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'N')ot enough to offset decline of existing fields and reduce import growth. Maybe slow the rate of growth of imports.
Do you mean negative import growth? Crude imports are down yoy, and I don't see why we would want to reverse that trend.
Down?
You mean up, don't you?
Weekly Imports & Exports
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by ROCKMAN » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 16:04:01
I agree with you Monte. Offsetting those declines would be almost impossible even under the most optimistic outcomes.
I'm only talking about increasing production capacity above what it will be. As I've said before I think it would, at best, provide only a little extra breathing room. PO is that comet heading right for our collective noses and even Superman can't stop it. But it would be nice if he could slow it up a little so we MIGHT be a little better prepared for it.
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by MonteQuest » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 16:37:27
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'I') agree with you Monte. Offsetting those declines would be almost impossible even under the most optimistic outcomes.
I'm only talking about increasing production capacity above what it will be. As I've said before I think it would, at best, provide only a little extra breathing room. PO is that comet heading right for our collective noses and even Superman can't stop it. But it would be nice if he could slow it up a little so we MIGHT be a little better prepared for it.
Then we need to earmark OCS And ANWR for renewable energy construction only.
Otherwise, it's just another fix for the addict.
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by Plantagenet » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 16:40:47
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Then we need to earmark OCS And ANWR for renewable energy construction only.
Its already been done.
Roscoe Bartlett (R-Md), the only "peak oil" aware Congressman, authored a bill opening up ANWR on the condition ALL the lease money and federal tax money go to renewable resources and research.
Pelosi won't let Bartlett's bill come up for a vote, of course......
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by yesplease » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 17:10:29
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'N')ot enough to offset decline of existing fields and reduce import growth. Maybe slow the rate of growth of imports.
Do you mean negative import growth? Crude imports are down yoy, and I don't see why we would want to reverse that trend.
Down?
You mean up, don't you?
Weekly Imports & Exports Down. Add up all the oil imported in 2008 so far, then do the same for the closest time interval in 2007, making sure of course to account for any difference in the number of days. We've imported less oil than we have over the same time period last year if my figures are correct. It could change, but yoy crude imports are down AFAIK.
Edit- I should also specify that while crude imports are down, crude+refined products are down more, which I'm guessing is due to fewer imports of refined gasoline and diesel?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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by MonteQuest » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 17:30:14
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', ' ') Add up all the oil imported in 2008 so far, then do the same for the closest time interval in 2007, making sure of course to account for any difference in the number of days. We've imported less oil than we have over the same time period last year if my figures are correct. It could change, but yoy crude imports are down AFAIK.
One year does not a "trend" make. The trend is for imports to rise, which they are now doing. There is nothing that is going to prevent an increase in oil imports to the US.
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by yesplease » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 17:38:05
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'O')ne year does not a "trend" make. The trend is for imports to rise, which they are now doing.
Both crude oil and finished product imports are falling, not rising, according to the EIA data. It could be that this behavior will turn around and people will start consuming again, no matter the cost, but that isn't what's happening.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')here is nothing that is going to prevent an increase in oil imports to the US.
There isn't anything until there is. So far, something, which according to you can't prevent an increase in oil imports to the US, has prevented an increase in oil imports to the US.
Last edited by
yesplease on Wed 16 Jul 2008, 17:45:33, edited 1 time in total.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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by MonteQuest » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 18:45:06
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', ' ') Both crude oil and finished product imports are falling, not rising, according to the EIA data.
According to the EIA data they are rising
right now by 200,000 barrels /week. The trend is up...headed for 19 mbpd in 2025 up from 13 mbpd now.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t could be that this behavior will turn around and people will start consuming again, no matter the cost, but that isn't what's happening.
The import numbers go up and down in response to many things. Mostly growth and decline in domestic production.
Ethanol has contributed some, with the decline rate of existing fields going from 4% to 5.2%,
all of those gains have been negated.
Domestic production isn't going up enough to offset decline, so I guess you are counting on a recession?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here isn't anything until there is. So far, something, which according to you can't prevent an increase in oil imports to the US, has prevented an increase in oil imports to the US.
I am talking about the supply end and you know it.
US crude production for 2000 to 2007
2000's 5,822 5,801 5,746 5,681 5,419 5,178 5,102 5,103
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by MonteQuest » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 18:51:13
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'D')on't forget to check out the data from May 2007 until 2008. Crude imports were rising so fast they sped past themselves and remained flat overall. Too fast for their own good I guess.
Hoisted by your own petard! LOL!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o far, something {crude stocks drawdown}, which according to you can't prevent an increase in oil imports to the US, has prevented an increase in oil imports to the US.
That was the next thing I was going to add.
Depletion of oil inventories.
Funny how that green line tracks the blue one, isnt it?
And you cherry-pick a short window of time to exaggerate the drop in imports.
Here's the real scoop:
Crude oil imports:
2000's 11,459 11,871 11,530 12,264 13,145 13,714 13,707 13,439
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by yesplease » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 19:12:02
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', ' ') Both crude oil and finished product imports are falling, not rising, according to the EIA data.
According to the EIA data they are rising
right now by 200,000 barrels /week. The trend is up...headed for 19 mbpd in 2025 up from 13 mbpd now.
No they aren't. Compared to the first half of 2007, oil imports over the first half of 2008 are decreasing not increasing, just like refined product imports.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')he import numbers go up and down in response to many things. Mostly growth and decline in domestic production.
It seems that the biggest factor in this case is price.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I') am talking about the supply end and you know it.
US crude production for 2000 to 2007
2000's 5,822 5,801 5,746 5,681 5,419 5,178 5,102 5,103
Um, no I don't. If you say imports, I'm going to assume you're referring to imports. If you want people to understand that you're talking about US crude production, instead of US crude imports, you should probably say you're talking about US crude production, not US crude imports.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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by yesplease » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 19:22:16
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')hat was the next thing I was going to add.
Depletion of oil inventories.
Funny how that green line tracks the blue one, isnt it?
I never contended that we weren't depleting oil inventories, only that US crude imports were not increasing. They were flat during the last half of 2007 and have decreased yoy during the first half of 2008.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')nd you cherry-pick a short window of time to exaggerate the drop in imports.
A half year's worth of data is not cherry-picking. US oil imports are down, regardless of what you want to believe. Yes, they were up in the past. But, as we saw last time prices were this high, consumption dropped significantly, and w/ US oil imports flat last year and dropping this year, it looks like consumption is headed downhill just like it did the last time prices were high.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'H')ere's the real scoop:
Crude oil imports:
2000's 11,459 11,871 11,530 12,264 13,145 13,714 13,707 13,439
I'm not saying that imports didn't rise in the past. However, as your data shows, they've fallen from from a peak of 13,714 in 2005 to 13,707 in 2006, and have seen another drop to 13,439 in 2007. The current EIA data shows them falling again so far this year compared to the same time period last year. That's nearly three years of imports falling, and while it may not indicate a trend, it does indicate that regardless of what you want to think, US crude imports are falling. Hoisted by your own petard I guess...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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by MonteQuest » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 20:31:00
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', ' ')]No they aren't. Compared to the first half of 2007, oil imports over the first half of 2008 are decreasing not increasing, just like refined product imports.
This is where my claim about you using troll tactics to just stir shit up bears fruit.
Anyone who goes to this link will find crude oil imports rising 200,000/week
right now from 13.1 to 13.9
Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Imports
13,103 13,334 13,547 13,747 12,538 13,943
EIA data$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I') am talking about the supply end and you know it.
[
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')m, no I don't. If you say imports, I'm going to assume you're referring to imports. If you want people to understand that you're talking about US crude production, instead of US crude imports, you should probably say you're talking about US crude production, not US crude imports.
Assume? How can imports cause imports to decrease, you twit?
When I wrote:"There is nothing that is going to prevent an increase in oil imports to the US." I was talking about the supply end, and you know it.
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by idiom » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 20:38:35
Its possible that as discretionary consumption has been destroyed that imports have slowed for a bit.
However what we care about is that core consumption that can't easily be destroyed will continue to grow. It just may be a while before it picks up the slack of discretionary consumption.
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