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Oil back up to 145

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Oil back up to 145

Unread postby SoylentGreen » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 17:55:48

my answer is to the still plentiful supply of sheeple who think Oil is going back down to $80
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Re: Oil back up to 145

Unread postby Hartmann » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 19:17:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Olle', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', '
')Can anybody name 5 reasons that oil will go down?


1. Economic recession
2. New capacity coming on line
3. Every new car bought uses less fuel than the one scraped
4. If there is no strike in Brazil
5. Is the EU/Iran-talks on nukes is successfull

I still believe you are right though, the price will go further up, but I’m far from sure


1.china and india could still producing a lot of cars and others, so the balance is the same.

2.No more capacity in a depleted fields, the continuous grown have some limits.

3.Less fuel, but there are more cars every day, and more,

4. A strike there , a tornado here , a earthquake in other place, always there is a problem in some place , the problem is that the production is very close (or less) to the demand and every problem in the production have more effects .

5. if iran don´t had any nuclear program, U.S strike could be real, and the war can raise the prices to 200 or more dolars.
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Re: Oil back up to 145

Unread postby seldom_seen » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 19:26:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'T')he pending collpase of mortgage giants, Fannie & Freddie, marks the beginning of the next wave of dollar debasement.

The first one started last November with a major change in Federal Reserve policies. The second one probably starts today as the government assumes trillions $s in mortgages, plus many trillions $ more in derivatives.

Due to these monetary/fiscal policies, eventually we will look back and see $145 as just a short stop on the way to a much higher price.

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Re: Oil back up to 145

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 20:45:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'C')an anybody name 5 reasons that oil will go down?

1. Because the price of anything can't rise forever.
2. Because the price of anything can't rise forever.
3. Because the price of anything can't rise forever.
4. Because the price of anything can't rise forever.
5. Because the price of anything can't rise forever.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Oil back up to 145

Unread postby SoylentGreen » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 21:29:55

Your right, the price of a rapidly depleting, unrenewable commodity so vital to modern civilization cant go up forever. It will probably stop going up when there is no more modern civilization.
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Re: Oil back up to 145

Unread postby jdumars » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 21:52:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'C')an anybody name 5 reasons that oil will go down?

1. Because the price of anything can't rise forever.
2. Because the price of anything can't rise forever.
3. Because the price of anything can't rise forever.
4. Because the price of anything can't rise forever.
5. Because the price of anything can't rise forever.


OF2, you are:
1. wrong
2. wrong
3. wrong
4. wrong
5. wrong

Price of a barrel of oil in Zimbabwean dollars on
7/7/08: $2143378560400
7/8/08: $2289840000000
today: $2357240863600

Economics are a fiction created outside of the limitations of nature. As such, anything is economically possible. In theory, an infinite amount of money can be "loaned into existence" based on fictional future growth. I am completely sick of this whole "abundance" crap that you perpetually harp on. That is a fiction as well. It's the kind of myopic, selfish, anthropocentric shit that got us where we are right now -- teetering on the brink of ecological collapse. I've got news for you. The world doesn't exist for you and others to exploit. You are not entitled to anything. Your needs are not greater than the other living beings on this planet, regardless of how much money you may or may not have.
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Re: Oil back up to 145

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 22:08:12

jdumars, you know zilch about economics. For starters, the price of oil in Zimbabwe has skyrocketed not because of a shortage of oil, but because the value of their currency has collapsed. But that, too, will eventually come to an end. I guarantee it.

Economics is not a philosophy or "fiction," as you believe. Economics is just as much a science as is ecoology. And frankly, they both obey pretty much the same rules.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Oil back up to 145

Unread postby jdumars » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 22:21:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'j')dumars, you know zilch about economics. For starters, the price of oil in Zimbabwe has skyrocketed not because of a shortage of oil, but because the value of their currency has collapsed. But that, too, will eventually come to an end. I guarantee it.

Economics is not a philosophy or "fiction," as you believe. Economics is just as much a science as is ecoology. And frankly, they both obey pretty much the same rules.


Actually, I know plenty about economics. I don't mention it often, but I am a senior executive in one of the fastest-growing 500 companies in the US. So don't presume what I know and don't.

Second, you completely disregarded what I wrote in terms of hyperinflation and the literally infinite capacity to loan fiat money into existence. Zimbabwe is a perfect example of this phenomenon. How does their currency in any way reflect natural resource availability?

Economics is not a physical science at all. It's a social science like sociology or psychology. While social sciences address observed human behavior, they do not in any way translate into the physiology of the action -- nor does classical economics concern itself with systems that are incompatible with nature. If every last person died, economics would cease to exist, but meteorology, geology, biology wouldn't.
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Re: Oil back up to 145

Unread postby strata » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 22:32:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdumars', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'j')dumars, you know zilch about economics. For starters, the price of oil in Zimbabwe has skyrocketed not because of a shortage of oil, but because the value of their currency has collapsed. But that, too, will eventually come to an end. I guarantee it.

Economics is not a philosophy or "fiction," as you believe. Economics is just as much a science as is ecoology. And frankly, they both obey pretty much the same rules.


Actually, I know plenty about economics. I don't mention it often, but I am a senior executive in one of the fastest-growing 500 companies in the US. So don't presume what I know and don't.

Second, you completely disregarded what I wrote in terms of hyperinflation and the literally infinite capacity to loan fiat money into existence. Zimbabwe is a perfect example of this phenomenon. How does their currency in any way reflect natural resource availability?

Economics is not a physical science at all. It's a social science like sociology or psychology. While social sciences address observed human behavior, they do not in any way translate into the physiology of the action -- nor does classical economics concern itself with systems that are incompatible with nature. If every last person died, economics would cease to exist, but meteorology, geology, biology wouldn't.


True but I think the truth is that there is a practical limit to the inflation-adjusted price of oil, in that after a certain point, entire economies would be paralyzed and thus generate massive demand destruction in excess of decline rates. I was an econ major and agree that econ is a social science, and it is laughable to equate its reliability with that of ecology, which itself isn't even a natural science either! Biology, I can sort of see as being on par with natural sciences, but that's built on top of chemistry and physics anyway.
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Re: Oil back up to 145

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 22:35:00

Human behavior is as subject to the laws of physics and nature as is anything else. Therefore, observation of human behavior is as much as science as are observations of physics and nature.

Economics must contend with natural systems because, as long as we must use matter and energy for our human systems, observations of the interactions of human systems with supplies of matter and energy on earth merely becomes part of what economics observes. It is impossible for it not to. E.g.: Economics cannot pretend there is an infinite supply of gold on the planet. If gold really, truly is scarce, economics merely observes how human systems cope with that scarcity.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Oil back up to 145

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 22:37:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strata', 'e')cology, which itself isn't even a natural science either! Biology, I can sort of see as being on par with natural sciences, but that's built on top of chemistry and physics anyway.


Huh? Ecology is a subdiscipline of biology, a natural science.
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Re: Oil back up to 145

Unread postby jdumars » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 22:38:26

I'm not saying I think the price of oil is going to go up forever. I am saying in theory it could. OF was so pedantic in his "explanation" of why oil was going to go down that I felt obligated to equally vehemently explain why he was wrong.
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Re: Oil back up to 145

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 22:45:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdumars', 'I')'m not saying I think the price of oil is going to go up forever. I am saying in theory it could. OF was so pedantic in his "explanation" of why oil was going to go down that I felt obligated to equally vehemently explain why he was wrong.

You gave me 3 friggin days of oil prices in Zimbabwe. Do you really think that's gonna go on forever?

BTW, when you get massive price rises like in Zimbabwe, here is the kind of demand destruction you get:
http://indexmundi.com/zimbabwe/oil_consumption.html

Economic destruction => demand destruction => eventual price destruction.

Prices of something cannot rise forever any more than the population of lemmings in Alaska can rise forever. That's why I said ecology and economics obey the same rules. They do.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Oil back up to 145

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 22:52:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdumars', 'I')f every last person died, economics would cease to exist, but meteorology, geology, biology wouldn't.

Actually, this is not true. If humans ceased to exist, meteorology, geology and biology would also cease to exist, because science is a human endeavor. No humans, no science.

:P
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Oil back up to 145

Unread postby seldom_seen » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 00:08:00

Economics is much closer to a religion than anything in the sciences. If an anthropologist showed up from mars they would classify it as a "faith based cargo cult."

You just have to listen to the terminology to get a feel for it's mystical religious symbolism.

"The invisible hand." Ooohh? Who's hand is that? Is it god?

"Market forces." What are these strange, and powerful forces? Are they controlled by the invisible hand? The invisible hand of god? Not to worry though, these "market forces" will provide answers to all our problems.

Or how about when the messiah, son of god, Alan Greenspan was Fed Chair? If he was about to make a pronouncement from the altar, you could hear a pin drop on the trading floors. Afterwards, analysts would spend days dissecting every word that flowed from the prophets mouth.

Image
Osiris Ra - Horus the all seeing eye of Baal, their god of the sun.
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Re: Oil back up to 145

Unread postby MathMurderer » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 01:20:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdumars', 'I')f every last person died, economics would cease to exist, but meteorology, geology, biology wouldn't.

Actually, this is not true. If humans ceased to exist, meteorology, geology and biology would also cease to exist, because science is a human endeavor. No humans, no science.

:P

If humans ceased to exist, the human study of any subject would obviously cease to exist. But without mankind the subject being studied in economics would cease to exist, whereas the subjects / phenomena being studied in meteorology, geology and biology wouldn't be affected one bit.
||\\ .. //|| ||\\ .. //|| There is nothing left in my right brain.
||. \\// .|| ||. \\// .|| There is nothing right in my left brain.
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Re: Oil back up to 145

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 01:30:16

Of course if humans ceased to exist, the study of themselves would also cease to exist. So what? Does that mean the study of themselves is illegitimate and fictitious? No it doesn't - it just means they wouldn't be around to study themselves anymore. Nothing more. Same thing would be true of any other species, if they happened to have the ability to study themselves.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Oil back up to 145

Unread postby Rogozhin » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 01:31:12

How many gallons of diesel is used to produce the loaf of bread in your supermarket?
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Re: Oil back up to 145

Unread postby strata » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 13:23:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strata', 'e')cology, which itself isn't even a natural science either! Biology, I can sort of see as being on par with natural sciences, but that's built on top of chemistry and physics anyway.


Huh? Ecology is a subdiscipline of biology, a natural science.


And biology has some sketchier elements in it, like evolutionary biology which is definitely not a natural science, more like conjecture. Cellular bio, biochemistry, etc. I would classify as a natural science, of course. Is "ecology" some sort of discipline where you can run experiments ad infinitum with control groups and such?

Anyway, the point is that economics is not a natural science. Economic "laws" don't always apply, because they are based on assumptions that don't always hold true.
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Re: Oil back up to 145

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 14:57:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strata', ' ')like evolutionary biology which is definitely not a natural science, more like conjecture.


Ok, good to know you use your own personal definitions for words.
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