[k_semler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('k_semler', 'I') would prefer that the government actually obide by and respect the constitution, and everything it stands for instead of grinding on it with thier shit-stained boots that have trampled so many freedoms already.

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('k_semler', '
')I'll drink to that! That is, if I ever find where the hell I put my damn beer. I have been looking for it for almost an hour now!

[k_semler]

I found it! It was behind my moniter. Now it is warm Oh well, time for a new one!

[TrueKaiser]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'A')n economic journey from where the USA/Europe/Japan/Singapore... etc are today all the way down to about zero over a 100 year span would be considered a very, very fast economic collapse by just about all historical measures.

100 years. Five generations. And that's thought to be the 'slow' ride. It will certainly be somewhat quicker than that.

EastBay

[bart]

It's ironic that several posters use the image of a group holding hands and singing "Kum-By-Yah" as a symbol of ridiculousness.

In reality, I can't think of a better symbol for what will enable people to survive long-term. Holding hands means trust and group solidarity. "Kum-By-Yah" is an Afro-American spiritual which translates to "[Lord], Come by here." It's a song about religion or faith in something larger than oneself.

Is this silly? Think of the Mormons making their way through hostile (anti-Mormon) states into the desert of Utah. Or the Puritans, Quakers and other groups who successfully settled the Eastern seaboard.

I think the best place to be in uncertain times would be in a religious group, tolerant, but with shared values. The group would have common sense, an assortment of different skills, a sense of humor and an affection for one another. I would like to see several older, wise women. Most of all, I'd look for a sense of reality, an ability to work together to do whatever needed to be done.

[BorneoRagnarok]

Actually , peak oil is the straw that break the sick camel back. Our industrial civilization is declining since we enter the industrial age. For more information about resource constraints read Limits to Growth by Club of Rome. However, peak oil by itself is not the ultimate crisis level event. However it breaks the structure of the society that's addicted to cheap oil.

So it helps to be prepared and shoot for self-defense. During the reign of Mongol dynasty in China , the number of households decrease by 50 %. Some scientists said it was due to famine that caused by Little Ice Age that wiped out the Norse in Greenland. At the end , Mongol dynasty was kicked out by 1368. Norse was wiped out by 1408. Resource wars are common during that time and you are bound by Confucian contract to protect your family by hooks or by crooks.


"If a thief steals ,chop all his hands. If your father steals, you must protect him." (Sort of damned Confucian teaching. Lao Tzi is better)

http://www.ourcivilisation.com/

[alpha480v]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I') don't find violence acceptable and I refuse to support the idea of it. It is not inevitable.

[TWilliam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('trespam', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'W')hat can be done about it?

Stop promoting the idea that violence is acceptable. Just stop it.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alpha480v', 'I')f people are willing to trample over each other in a wallmart at xmas to get the latest Elmo doll,what will they be doing when tshtf,and food is scarce?My first "duty" is to my family,and myself,Not to my government,which allowed us to get into this mess in the first place,by not preparing the country for the decline of the oil age.

[BRAZNOFF]

I disagre with you. If its not the goverment's duty to look out for the American people, WHY THE HELL DO WE PAY THEM TAXES???? Why do we fire people( not vote them back in) and then pay them and their wives for the rest of their lives.

[trespam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', 'L')ack of comprehension on your part does not equate to dumbness on mine.

Is the predator being violent when it dispatches it's prey? No. It is expressing it's nature. Is the dog being violent when it defends it's yard? No. It too is expressing it's nature.

Nor are the storm, the tornado, the blizzard violent; they simply are what they are.

Many people would consider a monk absorbed in meditation to represent the epitomy of "non-violence". Most forget the fact that these same monks are responsible for developing the most lethal forms of hand-to-hand combat known to man. Why? To defend themselves against marauders. They understood that violence exists in only one place: the human heart, and they also recognized that there is a distinction between an overt act and the motivation behind it. Hence they saw clearly that defending oneself against an attacker was not a violent act, regardless of the form said defense might take.

[BabyPeanut]

SOYLENT BROWN IS MADE OF POO-POO!

[maverickdoc]

This is such a bad thread. This will be the first thing a newcomer reads and for most people, it will also be the last thing.

I think this threads need to go.

[Chocky]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his will be the first thing a newcomer reads and for most people, it will also be the last thing.

[PenultimateManStanding]

TWilliam, you can make sensible arguments till the cows come home. I know what you mean but there are those who will deny they see any sense in your views. C'est la Vie!

[0mar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('trespam', 'I') agree with John Denver on this one. If our worse nightmare occurs, then more power to the government and the national guard, more power to wartime planning, more power to civil order.

[0mar]

PO is completely unparalleled in human existence. The only thing that comes close is probably the black death. PO is the first hard limit the human species has ever encountered. For once, something else will dictate how we will live and die. We cannot be in control of our future because of PO. It runs in direct opposition to our current paradigm.

When PO hits, 10 to 15 after depletion sets in, you won't have a job because every job is some way or another connected to the petroleum industry and by and large most jobs are wholly unnecessary for survival, food supplies to your suburbs will be dwindling because of rising fuel costs and the simply unavailability of fuel, not to mention crops because fertilizer and pesticides are simply not available to maintain crop output. There's nothing coming close to an adqueate diet in your little horticulture in your backyard. Disease is rising because people are cramped in tight spaces because living in homes just costs too damned much now, and medical costs are through the roof; remember most medicines are derived one way or another by petroleum. Electricity is intermittant because of declining natural gas. That is, if you can afford electricity because you are unemployed. Clean water is tough to find because of the intermittant electricity and neglect by prior generations. You can't travel because you can't afford the 7 dollars per gallon of gasoline. And where would you go? Every suburb would be like this. You have no idea how to kill and eat an animal. You risk being drafted at any minute to fight the latest war. This is the reality of PO. This is a soft landing. In a hard landing, you just crushed your neighbors skull with a rock and you are using kerosene you found in your shed to cook him/her. This is reality. To think of anything else during a transition period is lunancy. Perhaps in 2100 or 2150, we might see a civilization (maybe even technological) but for our generation, this is going ot be the dark ages.

Let's make a list.

1. Unless you have a vital job (national defense, energy sector, medical, farming, and other things absolutely vital to living) chances are you will be unemployed. The financial "industry" will be absolutely gutted. Who the fuck needs a banker from so and so making such and such transactions? Looks pretty fucking inane compared to tending a harvest or maintaing law and order.

2. Food output will decline. Hell, without PO, we will run out of excess grain with population growth in a manner of decades. With PO and Peak natural gas (which are already passed, we simply import from Canada right now, what happens when they pass peak... imagine a fistful of shit being whipped at a fan), food can not be produced at the levels right now. Fertilizers allow the soil to feed plants and pesticides keep yields up. Soils in much of America are chemically dead because of this. Without fertilizers, there is simply no way those soils can grow anything. It will take at least a generation to fix this problem. All in all, this means that whatever food reaches you will damned expensive.

3. Electricity. Natural gas is about 30% of our electrical generation. As soon as NG tapers off, electricity becomes intermittant. Coal is limited at the production end because we don't have equipment and men and we are dependant on petroleum products to help mine coal. Petrol goes up in price, so does coal. Rising costs in electricity means you can't afford it (remember, you don't have a job). After 3 or 4 days of no electricity, all that wonderful food you have in your fridge and freezers is basically fertilizer. You can't eat it anyways. This doesn't even account for the fact that even if you can afford electricity, it will be intermittant because of supply factors. Potable water and sanitation (garbage trucks powered by petrol, which can't be supplied by broke munciplaites, because you chose to save 3 dollars on that toaster at wal-mart instead of supporting the local businesses) become scarce. Brings us to point 4.

4. Sanitation and water supplies dwindle. Living space dwindles because we are now living in 10 people, 12 people, maybe even 15 people in an apartment. Remember, you don't have a job, and you need a place to live. You sign into a deal with some other families. Whoops, little Renee has dysentary, and she spreads it to everyone. There will be clean water, just not enough to go around. Conserving will help, but even with that, there won't be enough. Underground aquifiers are depleted remember? All because you had to water your lawn every fucking day. And because garbage can't or won't be picked up, disease starts to spread. You go to the clinic, but because of legislation passed and because of overcrowding they can't treat you. But at least you don't have to worry about your sons and daughters because

5. They just got drafted. Because you wanted that extra SUV when the times were good, Johnny boy and Katherine just got a 1 way ticket to AfghanIranUzbekisstan or wherever the fuck we need a scapegoat. In order to secure dwindling oil supplies, we just don't plain give a fuck and gave up this ruse about global security and terrorism. We simply start to take over countries with any apperciable production capability. In doing so, we piss off a billion or so chinese and the shit really starts to fly now. At least you didn't live by the coast, where major cities like Los Angelos are nothing more than shelled out nuke zones now.

6. Climate change. The one thing you said "oh the next generation will solve it." Guess what? We didn't. Now you have to worry about desertification, glaring UV rays and other nasties. I hope you stock piled SPR 5000 because your gonna fucking need it when UV comes at you unfiltered.

7. Guess what, you didn't starve to death and you didn't dehydrate to death either. That's because you are the newest recruit in Operation Economic Resusicitation. Now, you get 1200 calories per day in exchange for hard labor and servitude. What better way to show how the mighty have fallen than by making you dig a canal so that some beaucrat-fuck in Washington can have his three course fish. And because you never really got out of debt, you can work it off by participating in OER. Remember guys, Slavery is Freedom.

This is reality. In a hard crash, like I said, you smashed your neighbor's skull in and cooked him.

[bart]

A few tactical suggestions from the military and outdoor texts on surviving extreme situations:

1. The #1 message is to maintain morale and hope.

2. Focus on solving immediate problems, rather than on doom-and-gloom scenarios.

3. Emphasize keeping everyone in the team alive -- make sure all the members know that no matter what, they will not be left behind.

I and the people around me wlll survive and we will survive with dignity.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bart', 'W')hen groups of people are subjected to physical hardship and chronic stress, psychologists have learned that those most likely to survive adopt a positive strategy and avoid depressing thoughts about the future. They concentrate on being as safe and comfortable as possible for the moment. Their attitude seems to be "I'm ok now, and maybe things will get better later.

Never create doubt or agree with anyone who has negative comments such as: "we're all doomed," "that ship was our last chance," "it will never rain," "the sharks will get us all." Try to turn these gloomy comments aside with a joke if possible: 'you're too bony for the sharks to eat." (p.279-80)

[alpha480v]

Great post Omar!
I agree 100%!