Peak Oil
Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Oil Back up 5

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
Post a reply

Oil Back up 5

Unread postby Cashmere » Thu 10 Jul 2008, 15:27:26

It was funny when oil dipped to the mid 130s and some random internet guy comes out of the woodwork to give us financial advice - that we should get out of oil because it's going to crash by fall.

The U.S., like Scut Farkus, issuing new threats to Iran every day.

The Israeli's playing Grover Dill, egging him on.

Then Iran, shooting missiles around just to show they, in fact, have phalli too.

Nigeria, a land of future pure black death.

Venezuela - threats of oil cut off monthly.

World production flat for 4 years.

Cantarell at 34% decline.

China importing 10% more oil this year.

India introducing 2,000$ car.

Oil going back down?

My G-d. It's frankly scary as hell that anybody is so delusional so as to believe for a second that oil is going back down.

The delusion is worse than the reality because it's delusion that is driving the bus off the cliff.
Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
User avatar
Cashmere
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1882
Joined: Thu 27 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Oil Back up 5

Unread postby jlw61 » Thu 10 Jul 2008, 15:40:22

Image

Quite right, while this graph is a day behind, you'll be able to see that the march continues up and up. All I can say is that they are telling people to get out so they can buy long positions at a cheaper rate.

Anyone who thinks that oil is going to go down, any appreciable amount for any real length of time anytime soon, is drunk. And the way it's starting to shape up, I doubt the new projects will be able to get online soon enough to make a difference.
When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
User avatar
jlw61
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 623
Joined: Mon 03 Sep 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
Top

Re: Oil Back up 5

Unread postby Colorado-Valley » Thu 10 Jul 2008, 15:42:58

There was apparently a rumor earlier this week that Bush was going to open the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Really crashed oil prices for a few days.

Now they're returning to normal ...

:)
User avatar
Colorado-Valley
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 729
Joined: Mon 16 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Oil Back up 5

Unread postby Niagara » Thu 10 Jul 2008, 15:50:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', '
') My G-d. It's frankly scary as hell that anybody is so delusional so as to believe for a second that oil is going back down.

Okay, so take out as big a loan as you can get and invest it in oil futures, or perhaps USO.

It's impossible to lose.....right?
User avatar
Niagara
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 612
Joined: Thu 17 Aug 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Mt. Hubbert Scenic Lookout
Top

Re: Oil Back up 5

Unread postby burtonridr » Thu 10 Jul 2008, 16:51:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado-Valley', 'T')here was apparently a rumor earlier this week that Bush was going to open the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.



WTF, I sure hope they dont start leaning on the reserves this early in the game!

LOL "Strategic" Oil reserves, Why is it everything that comes from bush is "Strategic" :lol:
Tired of high gas prices? [smilie=BangHead.gif] Then stop driving to work, duh..... Learn to Work from home

Peak Oil Blog = http://getroasted.wordpress.com
User avatar
burtonridr
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 743
Joined: Fri 03 Aug 2007, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Oil Back up 5

Unread postby Cashmere » Thu 10 Jul 2008, 17:17:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Niagara', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', '
') My G-d. It's frankly scary as hell that anybody is so delusional so as to believe for a second that oil is going back down.

Okay, so take out as big a loan as you can get and invest it in oil futures, or perhaps USO.

It's impossible to lose.....right?



Sure it's possible - the govt. is going to step in at some point. Cube thinks close to 300. I think close to 200.

The time to make huge money in oil off of a relatively small investment is gone.

You can still make money, just not the sick money that folks who got in 2 years ago have made.
Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
User avatar
Cashmere
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1882
Joined: Thu 27 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Oil Back up 5

Unread postby eastbay » Thu 10 Jul 2008, 17:28:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado-Valley', 'T')here was apparently a rumor earlier this week that Bush was going to open the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Really crashed oil prices for a few days.

Now they're returning to normal ...

:)


Bush or anyone else can EMPTY the SPR and oil prices would continue their upward trend. Remember, the stuff is fungible and the US SPR contains barely enough oil to last the world about 8 days.

Oh, I know it isn't intended to offer a cushion for the world, but prices are set not only on todays supply situation, but anticipated supply. Tapping into the SPR would scare markets into thinking a REAL crisis is afoot, thus creating additional upward pressure on prices. Since US oil is purchased on the world market hitting the SPR would therefore probably have an adverse effect on US pump prices since most US oil is purchased overseas.

When there's serious talk about tapping the SPR, think about increasing your investments in oil-related instruments.
Got Dharma?

Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
User avatar
eastbay
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7186
Joined: Sat 18 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Top

Re: Oil Back up 5

Unread postby Ayame » Thu 10 Jul 2008, 17:33:46

Such price volatility is to be expected as we traverse the event horizon of peak oil.

They don't truly understand yet, but they will soon and then god help us all.
Ayame
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 631
Joined: Thu 29 Jun 2006, 03:00:00
Location: UK
Top

Re: Oil Back up 5

Unread postby NoWorries » Thu 10 Jul 2008, 17:39:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Niagara', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', '
') My G-d. It's frankly scary as hell that anybody is so delusional so as to believe for a second that oil is going back down.

Okay, so take out as big a loan as you can get and invest it in oil futures, or perhaps USO.

It's impossible to lose.....right?



Good point. Long-term, yes it's going way up. But right now I would not put all my eggs in the oil basket. Boone Pickens said $100 by year end is possible.

The $5 increase today is due to Iran tensions flaring up again.
User avatar
NoWorries
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 177
Joined: Thu 05 Jun 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Oil Back up 5

Unread postby DantesPeak » Thu 10 Jul 2008, 17:40:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')DantesPeak

Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 8:55 pm Post subject: Re: Oil is Dropping -- How low will it go?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Oil is going to turn around as early as tommorow. Mid-month in July the US will experience a signficant drop in oil imports due shipment declines from Nigeria, Mexico, and yes, even Saudi Arabia.

When it becomes apparent that crude inventories on hand are heading towards low levels, I would not be surprised if we hit a new high for oil about the end of July or early August. However that is not a specific prediction.

Due to US monetary policy, maybe best described by Bernanke today who said - to paraphrase - we face an unusal short term situation that may continue for a long long time.

That means full speed ahead for inflation.


Well the oil markets did start turning around yesterday. Oil inventories fell in the week ending July 4 not only because of falling imports, but an unexpected and signficant 1 million drop in domestic US oil output last week. Two major refinering companies (Total S.A. and Valero Energy Corp) also unexpectedly announced today they would be immeadiately cutting back refinery operations, being that they have less oil on hand and/or just aren't making enough per barrel buying oil at $140.

As I have been saying since 2006, the oil futures markets will be closed in the US by 2010. Maybe before that. At around $200 the futures will start shutting down by position reductions, with a complete shutdown in the US at roughly $300.

Ironically to some, closing futures markets will actually cause oil to rise even faster in price. Not only are major energy companies heavily short futures on oil, but a major broker - Lehman - is rumored to be on the short side of the market too.

While futures trading by itself only has a short term impact on prices, and does not change long term trends, the signal that the oil market is closing for ever is a sign that PO has come - and gone.
Last edited by DantesPeak on Thu 10 Jul 2008, 17:57:34, edited 1 time in total.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
User avatar
DantesPeak
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6277
Joined: Sat 23 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: New Jersey
Top

Re: Oil Back up 5

Unread postby jlw61 » Thu 10 Jul 2008, 20:12:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Niagara', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', '
') My G-d. It's frankly scary as hell that anybody is so delusional so as to believe for a second that oil is going back down.

Okay, so take out as big a loan as you can get and invest it in oil futures, or perhaps USO.

It's impossible to lose.....right?


If you believe that, I have a bridge to sell you. The futures market is a dangerous place to be unless you have lots of money to burn. All it would take is a sudden drop back to 120 and you would lose everything along with your contract. Then it would just march right back up to 170 without you.

I don't have the patience, courage, or time for that kind of Tom Foolery. I'll make my money the old fashioned way....

Image
When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
User avatar
jlw61
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 623
Joined: Mon 03 Sep 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
Top

Re: Oil Back up 5

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 10 Jul 2008, 20:36:03

The higher and the faster it rises, the harder it will crash.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9589
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Cornucopia
Top

Re: Oil Back up 5

Unread postby Smudger » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 10:39:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'T')he higher and the faster it rises, the harder it will crash.


?..... oh right standard investment bubble chit chat..is that true or just the higher it falls from the long-term median?........

by jove you must have a target for what it will fall back to what would that be chap?

cheers

Smudger
User avatar
Smudger
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 180
Joined: Thu 05 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Great Britain
Top

Re: Oil Back up 5

Unread postby AlexdeLarge » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 10:51:06

There is only one thing that will bring down the cost of oil.

I will trade in my beloved old SUV and get a Prius. Within 24 hours of purchase, gas will drop back to $2.00/Gal. LOL
Viddy well, little brother. Viddy well.
User avatar
AlexdeLarge
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1806
Joined: Tue 20 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: I have a whole ward
Top

Re: Oil Back up 5

Unread postby jlw61 » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 12:03:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AlexdeLarge', 'T')here is only one thing that will bring down the cost of oil.

I will trade in my beloved old SUV and get a Prius. Within 24 hours of purchase, gas will drop back to $2.00/Gal. LOL


Actually, all that would be required is for me to invest my entire financial future into the market and that would guarantee a drop to $35 a barrel within a week.
When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
User avatar
jlw61
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 623
Joined: Mon 03 Sep 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
Top

Re: Oil Back up 5

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 15 Sep 2008, 21:27:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'T')he higher and the faster it rises, the harder it will crash.

Well I hate to say I told ya so, but I told ya so.

As I type this, light sweet crude is at $93.22.

That's a decline of 36.7% since the intra-day high of $147.27 - in just over 2 months!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cashmere', 'I')t was funny when oil dipped to the mid 130s and some random internet guy comes out of the woodwork to give us financial advice - that we should get out of oil because it's going to crash by fall.

Looks like the random internet guy coming out of the woodwork was right, eh?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cashmere', '[')...]

Oil going back down?

My G-d. It's frankly scary as hell that anybody is so delusional so as to believe for a second that oil is going back down.

The delusion is worse than the reality because it's delusion that is driving the bus off the cliff.

Haha - look who's delusional? You thought the price was going to keep going up and up and up and up and up and . . .
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9589
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Cornucopia
Top

Re: Oil Back up 5

Unread postby HEADER_RACK » Mon 15 Sep 2008, 21:38:48

Offender 2
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')aha - look who's delusional? You thought the price was going to keep going up and up and up and up and up and . . .


Doesn't bother me much. I'm a member of the deflationist camp :lol:
Nothing is more dangerous than a man with nothing left to lose but has everything left to gain.
User avatar
HEADER_RACK
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 452
Joined: Thu 15 Feb 2007, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Oil Back up 5

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 15 Sep 2008, 23:21:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jlw61', '[')img]http://www.upstreamonline.com/reuters/images/brt_daily.png[/img]

Quite right, while this graph is a day behind, you'll be able to see that the march continues up and up. All I can say is that they are telling people to get out so they can buy long positions at a cheaper rate.

Anyone who thinks that oil is going to go down, any appreciable amount for any real length of time anytime soon, is drunk. And the way it's starting to shape up, I doubt the new projects will be able to get online soon enough to make a difference.

BTW, I can't help but chuckle at the irony of this statement given the updated status of the chart. :razz:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9589
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Cornucopia
Top

Re: Oil Back up 5

Unread postby Dont_Panic » Tue 16 Sep 2008, 02:46:28

Interesting indeed, oil is now at 91.94. It does not, however, mean that we're "saved" and that there'll be unlimited oil for us to burn for ever more. But the drop is significant, and many people swore it would never happen, so it goes to show that you should never be too bombastic...

And I guess it also says something about the economies and all the other factors.

Also, is falling oil a good or a bad thing?
User avatar
Dont_Panic
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 47
Joined: Mon 09 Jun 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Philippines
Top

Re: Oil Back up 5

Unread postby sjn » Tue 16 Sep 2008, 04:44:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dont_Panic', 'I')nteresting indeed, oil is now at 91.94. It does not, however, mean that we're "saved" and that there'll be unlimited oil for us to burn for ever more. But the drop is significant, and many people swore it would never happen, so it goes to show that you should never be too bombastic...

And I guess it also says something about the economies and all the other factors.

Also, is falling oil a good or a bad thing?
That depends how you look at it.. At these prices (and with the unavailability of credit) a lot projects will be suspended or abandoned. OilFinder2 may be less gleeful when he discovers this means he now longer has a job!
User avatar
sjn
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 1332
Joined: Wed 09 Mar 2005, 04:00:00
Location: UK
Top
Next
Post a reply

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 12 guests